Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

2013 NHL Draft Lottery Simulator: Predicting Who Will Win the Lottery

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The NHL Draft Lottery will take place tonight in New York, but the question bouncing around every NHL circle at the moment is who will win the coveted No. 1 Draft pick this year? This year’s class has been touted as being the deepest in years, but the cream still rises to the top and 14 non-playoff teams are vying for the top pick.

If you’re itching to get you NHL Draft Lottery fix early, there is a Draft Lottery simulator on NHL.com that allows you to mock the lottery and see who could possibly win in the most realistic way possible.

Being the sports scientists we are, FanSided mocked the lottery 15 times to see who has the best real-time chance of winning. Here’s the results of our little hockey experiment.

Hypothesis: Based on the data supplied beforehand, and looking at past data and how it played into the actual results, we hypothesize that the Colorado Avalanche will win the NHL Draft Lottery.

Simulation Results:

SIMULATION

TEAM

1

Nashville Predators

2

Florida Panthers

3

Tampa Bay Lightning

4

 Philadelphia Flyers

5

Colorado Avalanche

6

 Florida Panthers (2)

7

 Colorado Avalanche (2)

8

Calgary Flames

9

Colorado Avalanche (3)

10

Nashville Predators (2)

11

Edmonton Oilers

12

Florida Panthers (3)

13

Tampa Bay Lightning (2)

14

Florida Panthers (4)

15

Buffalo Sabres

Conclusion: After running through the simulations, the Florida Panthers won the lottery 26 percent of the time, which is in line with their actual odds. Our prediction of the Colorado Avalanche proved incorrect as the Av’s only won the lottery 20 percent of the time, but while we were wrong about them having the best chance of winning, the simulation proved that their chances are better than they are on paper.

Prediction: Based on the evidence, it’s clear the Panthers are going to win the lottery. However, the Avalanche have a decent chance of winning as well and the Nashville Predators should not be counted out as well. But this is in the hands of the hockey gods, which means somehow the Oilers will win the top pick and still be no good in 2013-14.

 

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Tags: NHL NHL Draft Lottery 2013

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