Motown Fisher and Mike Dyce (Fish N’ Dyce) bring you the days marquee matchups from a statistics and wagering perspective which we have asked Procomputergambler.com to provide for us.
Motown’s Money Analysis –
The hardest conversation to have with my “self”: How NOT to bet the game tonight!
Motown: Hey self, what’s up? What are we betting tonight? I think I like the Heat and the Over, you?
Self: Ok Motown, we know there’s a big, primetime game tonight. Miami hot chicks in the stands, celebs, and even the chick who gave the finger to Noah, all of them! – You’ll be at home, with me, watching the game with some BBQ. Only thing that will make this better – a BET ON IT! It’s in our blood, we HAVE to bet Primetime games. Right? It’s like putting bacon on a cheeseburger. What’s the point otherwise right?
Motown: Ya you got it self, so what are we betting already?
Self: YOU IDIOT ! Motown, the game is a toss up in every sense of the word. I beg you, from deep down inside yourself, that little voice you listen to every so often, I BEG YOU(me) not to bet this game. NO REALLY! I know you want to, I know I want to, but we (you) just can’t. It doesn’t mean you (I) won’t, but be warned. Procomputergambler.com helps us make many of our decisions using their models and analysis to help my own handicapping, and HOW MANY TIMES, it’s games like this, primetime – only game in town type games, that you’ve lost, lost BIG… stupidly! when there is really NO PLAY.
Motown: No but, but…you don’t understand: I HAVE to bet this game, no REALLY, I HAVE TO!
Self: Ok, listen stupid! The problem with a game like this primarily is that we pretty much ALL expect the Heat to dominate and take it to game 7. This year alone, the Heat “Bounce back” games are 18-2 straight up ,and win by an average margin of 13.4 points. OK, so what! Here’s So What! The perfect contrary stat: The Heat are 1-10 ATS – 9-2 SU at home after two straight road games. They almost ALWAYS get their price inflated when they come back home.
Don’t forget, “The Computer” is actually leaning, ever so slightly on the Spurs Against the spread (Mia by 6). Which makes the SPURS them a good bet right? WRONG! Spurs were actually a DOG last game, at home yet, and we know how that turned out.
Motown: So Bet Miami Straight up right?
Self: Wrong again dummy! The Heat are -300 tonight. That means you (I) have to lay $30 to return $40, or profit $10. Look, we know we both want to repeat the BBQ Steak and Corn again in game 7, but there is NO WAY you’re throwing a LOT of MY good money down to win a case of beer.
Motown: Whatever grumpycat! What about the Total (Over/Under)?
Self: “The Computer” is leaning on a projection of 192. All of 0.5 points better than the actual total of 191.5 at post time.
Remember that prime time games tend to also be inflated so that the public (You and me, well, really mostly you) takes the over. No one cheers for defense unless there is less than a minute left and you’re sitting in the stands chanting D-Fence with the little picket sign showing a little fence. I digress.
Tonight is about as close as it will ever get to the line as any game in this series, or any game in the season based on all the projections out there. If you’re going to gamble Motown, here’s a nice thought, try and WIN! Win with an EDGE like the smart computer does over at Procomputergambler.com. Don’t let the inner dumb dumb let you bet a game like this. Instead, go do something productive. Like bet the Yankee Game.
Motown: Self, you take all the fun out of my day, but you make sense. Actually you make dollars.
Self: *sigh* Leave the jokes to the professionals Motown.