Motown Fisher and Mike Dyce (Fish N’ Dyce) bring you the days marquee matchups from a statistics and wagering perspective which we have asked Procomputergambler.com to provide for us.
Fish’s Record – 3-4 (-2.6 Units = -$26)
Dyce’s Record – 2-6 (-4.6 Units = -$46)
PCG’s 2013 MLB Record – 147-143-13 (+35.65 Units)
Friday, July 12, 2013
Boston Red Sox 57-37 (W3) +100 @ Oakland A’s 54-38 (L1) -110 – Over/Under 7.5 Runs 7:05 Local PST Start.
Stats and Trends provided by Procomputergambler.com
Bos P John Lackey (6-6, 2.80 ERA) has given up just 9 runs in his last 5 starts with 36 K’s in that stretch and just 4 walks. The only weakness lately is that he’s allowed 4 home runs in his last 3 games. He has a career record of 18-6 vs the A’s.
Oak P Jerrod Parker (6-6, 4.04 ERA) has also just given up 9 runs his last 5 games, and has given up just 3 runs twice in his last 10. He’s won his last 4 decisions, but the A’s have lost his last 3 starts.
Motown’s Money Analysis
These are 2 teams at the top of their divisions, with the Sox ahead by 3.5 games on the Rays, and the A’s by just 1 game on the Rangers. Boston has won 7 of their last 10, but are just 3-3 in their past 6. In the past 5 winners, they’ve scored 44 runs, including 30 in the last 3 games in Seattle just crushing every starter except Felix Hernandez. This isn’t to say they haven’t given up any runs either, as they’ve allowed 19 runs their past 3 games despite the win streak, and 30 in their past 4.
The A’s have won 6 of 9 this month, and have allowed 4 runs or less in 7 of the 9.Offensively they’ve only score more than 3 runs in 3 of the 9. The A’s just ended a 6 game road trip where they were 4-2 vs KC and Pit and had a travel day Thursday to prepare for the weekend series.
The Computer projects a wide margin of victory for the A’s tonight, and for that a -1 Run line may be the perfect option getting incredible value at +135. Some great analysis PCG has given us for tonight include:
*Since 2008, all home favorites have gone 564-302 (65.1%, +130.70 units, +10.0% roi) SU in July excluding the first and last 5 days of the month.
*Since 2012, Oakland has been 46-25 (64.8%, +27.15 units, +34.4% roi) SU after 4+ straight games on the road.
*Since 2012, the Red Sox are just 6-18 (25%, -14.31 units, +41.4% roi to fade) with a tired bullpen (last 3 starters pitched a combined 14 innings or less).
*Since 2012, when facing teams averaging 0.6 errors per game or fewer, the A’s have gotten an average dog line (-103.3) yet they’ve been an amazing 36-10 (78.3%, +29.81 units, +53.9% roi) SU and 38-8 (+34.04 units, +57.8% roi) on the runline.
***That’s 21-1 SU and 19-3 (+22.3 units, +95.2% roi) RL as favorites!
This is a really nice value play here, but as you have seen through many of our bets, we do realize that the bad bounce, or bad call, or bad play late in a game on a typical -1.5 Run Line bet seems to happen a little more often then we like, particularly when we’re betting the Home Team which does not get the benefit of the final 3 outs if they are ahead by one in the 9th. We prefer a -1.5 Run line typically for a road team despite usually a little bit less value.
Dyce for Dummies
This is an interesting match up and will make for a great baseball game. Parker is the A’s go to started and he is facing the 2nd pitcher on the Boston rotation. This favors Oakland.
Boston has played it’s last 7 games on the road and haven’t had a day off since July 1st. Oakland has played it’s last 6 games on the road as well. However, they had Thursday off. This rest favors Oakland.
The game is in Oakland…. this clearly favors Oakland.
Can Boston stand the locker rooms in Oakland, or are they still getting the sewage out? This favors Oakland.
The Athletics have a tighter divisional race with Texas on their heels. I don’t know how much this really factors. But Oakland certainly has extra motivation to win at home heading into the All-Star Break.
Motown and Dyce’s Play
2 Unit Oak -1 RL +135 ($20 to return $47)
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Who are we?
“The Computer” has been providing raw statistics, and forecast modelling along with situational trends for the past 3 years in nearly every North American sport with a combined record of 2929-2591-130 since April 2010 for a net return of a whopping +495 units. ($4950 based on a $10 per game bet).
Motown Fisher is a seasoned veteran of the wagering world that uses “The Computer” regularly alongside with his own handicapping techniques to predict sporting events.
Mike “Dyce” is there to give the balance of the wagerer, the computer. With his background in journalism, and his passion for sport, he makes “the english” happen for the whole thing to work.
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