Fantasy Football 2013: How Rob Gronkowski can still help you win your Fantasy Football League

It doesn’t make much sense to draft Rob Gronkowski in 2013, does it? Drafting Gronk in the third or fourth round of your draft is basically the same as walking into Best Buy and watching one of the employees drop a television, then saying “Yeah, I’ll take that one.”

But unlike the broken television, which you probably have no idea how to fix, the problem for Gronkowski is eventually going to be resolved. And when it does, he’s an absolute monster of a tight end. So let’s consider the best and worst case scenarios for Gronk, and see how he’ll help you win your fantasy leagues this year.

Worst Case Scenario

Let’s just say that Gronk is as injured as some have reported, and he’ll miss his first 5 or 6 games of the 2013 season. That’s what Sports Illustrated is projecting in their fantasy football draft kit, as they have Gronkowski playing in only 11 games. In those 11 games, they pencil in the New England Patriots’ tight end for 60 catches which amount to 800 yards and 10 touchdowns.

This is truly a worst case scenario, as Gronk only finished with a yards per catch of less than 14 once in his career, and that was as a rookie. Since then, he has scored a touchdown per game with over 14 yards coming on the average catch.

So if you get these numbers out of the Pats’ tight end over 11 games, how does your season pan out? Let’s assume you add Dustin Keller at the end of your draft, and play him in Gronk’s place.

You can see that Gronkowski dominates the projected outcome of Owen Daniels, the 8th ranked tight end according to SI’s rankings, even with five games missing. A sixty point advantage over the course of the season is the difference between Mike Wallace and Alshon Jeffery, who are going almost 70 picks apart in ESPN.com’s live drafts. Compare that to Gronk and Daniels, who are only going 40 spots apart in ESPN’s draft rooms.

The main argument against taking Gronk so high is that you’ll miss out on a key starter at another position for a player who will not start the season on the field. But consider what you’re really giving up.

Let’s say you planned on taking Mike Wallace in the fourth round, and letting Gronk slide. If you changed your mind, and took Gronk, you could then take Steve Smith or Dwayne Bowe in the next round, and have a very comparable wide receiver and have one of the best players in the league for fantasy purposes.

You could then add more wide receivers over the next few rounds, and still have choices that are better than the gap between having Rob Gronkowski and Owen Daniels. The advantage that Gronk provides is just too big to ignore, even if he’s injured.

Best Case Scenario

Let’s say you take a chance on Gronkowski, and snag him in the third or fourth round of your draft this week, knowing what you read above to be true, and that you’ll just have to tread water until he returns to health.

But then he starts week one. And week two. And plays in every game for you this season.

You’re going to win your league.

If you project out Gronkowski’s stats from SI.com over a full season, here’s what you get, as compared to Jason Witten, who is one of the next tight ends off the board once Rob is taken.

You will almost certainly dominate your competition every week with this sort of production, even finishing with an advantage over Jimmy Graham’s owner (which is usually me, as I stated in this previous article for Fansided).

So if you’re drafting within the next couple of weeks, and there is still uncertainty about Rob Gronkowski’s status for the start of the season, use the doubt to your advantage and take him in the third or fourth round. Because this is a gamble that is virtually impossible to lose. You’re either going to get the best tight end in football for about 10 weeks, and still have a huge advantage, or you’re going to get the steal of the draft and have him for 15 or 16 weeks, and run wild against your friends and leaguemates.

And if you pass on him, I feel sorry for the weeks when you play the guy or gal who took Gronk, and he or she beats you badly because of it.