It is that time of year, week one of the NFL season and professional football has returned. We’re here to try and help you get a leg up on your buddies or the guy in the stool next to you at the local watering hole when sorting out who to pick in this weekends games.
From Pro Computer Gambler:
Pretty simple here: Since 1990, home favorites in week one are 40-16-5 (+5.69 ppg, 71.4%) ATS (against the spread) if they are facing a team who had a betting win record last season than they did.
Since 2001, that is 30-7 SU (straight up) and 27-8 (+5.2 ppg, 77.1%) ATS [avg. line -3.5] (same conditions).
The teams that fall into that category this week that you should maybe consider a second look at are as follows:
Pro Computer Gambler had also projected the Denver Broncos winning and covering the 7.5 spread against the Baltimore Ravens. Interestingly enough these four teams are all home teams and all but the Cleveland Browns are playing within their division in Week One.
The Cleveland Browns host the Miami Dolphins. Both teams were sub .500 teams last season, the Dolphins added deep threat Mike Wallace while Brandon Weeden is pleading with his fans not to hit the panic button. This will be an interesting match up and the Browns really only have to win straight up with such a small spread.
The Dallas Cowboys are trying to reverse the trend of the New York Giants 4-0 record in their new stadium. The Cowboys for the most part are healthy with the exception of injuries along the offensive and defensive lines. The Cowboys have solid weapons though in Dez Bryant, Miles Austin (who is healthy) and Jason Witten plus a new defensive scheme. The Cowboys shocked the New York Giants in their last season opener and could do the same this year.
The Detroit Lions host the Minnesota Vikings and are trying to show that the 4-11 season they had last year is a fluke and they’re destined to return to the playoffs. Christian Ponder has some new passing weapons for his offense with the Vikings, this will be an interesting match up to see who has improved.
The New Orleans Saints host the Atlanta Falcons. The Saints had a rough season last year after facing the massive bounty gate penalties that suspended their head coach Sean Payton for the entire season. The Saints are looking to come out and make a statement that they’re back in the opener. Beating the Falcons is a tall order for the Saints but they have the Superdome behind them.