The Armchair Quarterback’s Guide To The NFL: Week 4

The Armchair Quarterback’s Week 4 Predictions

Last week, despite some unexpected upsets, I did end up going 10-6 in my picks. That brings my season numbers to 32-16. I would like to take a moment and encourage everyone to post in the comments what games I’m going to get wrong. Last week I was told I was wrong for picking the Chiefs over the Eagles, the Titans over the Chargers, the Saints over the Cardinals, and for predicting the Broncos to blow out the Raiders. So apparently it’s good luck for my picks to be questioned in the comments section. So please feel free to fire away if you think I’m wrong again this week!

49ers at Rams

The Thursday night match up features two teams that are coming off blow out loses. The Rams got blown out in Dallas and the 49ers got equally clobbered by Indianapolis on their own home turf. The Rams are at home, but Jim Harbaugh had never lost back to back games in the NFL before last week, so it’s hard to imagine the 49ers losing three in a row. Plus, the Rams have been flat out terrible in the first half this season. They have been outscored by a total of 51-13 in the first half thus far. You combine that number with the 49ers being fired up after two consecutive loses and it appears the Rams are set up to be playing from behind yet again. Look for San Francisco to get back on track this week.

49ers 31
Rams 20

Ravens at Bills

After getting handled by Denver in the opener and barely squeaking by Cleveland the next week, the Ravens bounced back in a big way by dominating a good Houston team last week. Despite the players that they’ve lost, there is still a nucleus of players on this team that won the Super Bowl last season. Despite being 1-2, the Bills have actually played better than many expected. They have played in three close games, losing to the Patriots and Jets, but beating the Panthers on a last second score. Unfortunately for Bills fans, I see this game going more like the Patriots and Jets game. I think it will be close and the Bills will give the Ravens all they can handle, but in the end the defending champs will come out on top.

Ravens 23
Bills 20

Cardinals at Buccaneers

This is a hard one to predict. On one hand, the Bucs have played pretty good defense so far this season. They held the Saints to just 16 points in Tampa a few weeks ago. However, they are only averaging 2 points more per game on offense than the Jaguars and Josh Freeman has completed less than 50% of his passes so far this season. If I was picking the team that I thought had the most talent on their roster, I would pick the Bucs. However, they seem to be falling apart. Until they prove that their internal issues are a non-factor, it’s going to be hard to predict them to beat anyone. The Cardinals are coming off a bad loss to the Saints, but if Carson Palmer can avoid turning the ball over they should be able to put up more points than the struggling Tampa offense.

Cardinals 23
Buccaneers 16

Steelers at Vikings

This is a battle of 0-3 teams that have struggled in different ways. The Steelers are still playing respectable defense, but their offensive line problems have completely torpedoed their offense. The Vikings on the other hand have put a lot of points on the board, but their defense has given up way too many points. Both of these teams are traveling to London with the fear of 0-4 hanging over them. This will likely be a close game as both teams desperately try to keep their slim playoff hopes from being officially dashed. Ultimately, the Vikings have played better in their loses than Pittsburgh has. Jared Allen should be able to get to Ben Roethlisberger with the Steelers OL problems and could possibly create some turnovers.

Steelers 20
Vikings 23

Giants at Chiefs

(Homer Alert) If you’ve read the previous Armchair Quarterback columns, you know I’m a die hard Chiefs fan. I’ve picked them the first three weeks, and it’s worked out well thus far. The Chiefs offense has been very mediocre, but their defense has been dominant. The Giants have been absolutely putrid so far. The fact that New York has been giving up sacks and turning the ball over at an alarming rate does not bode well going into Arrowhead when KC is leading the league in sacks and is +9 in the turnover margin to date. I’m taking the Chiefs here, but if I’m being honest, I’m worried that the Giants might not be 0-4 bad and the Chiefs might not be 4-0 good. Could this be a “course correct” game? We’ll see, but the Giants haven’t played well enough for anyone to give them the benefit of the doubt at this point.

Giants 17
Chiefs 24

Colts at Jaguars

I feel bad for Jacksonville fans. I know what it’s like to have a season where things are just plain terrible. That’s the Jags this season. The Colts just went into San Francisco and knocked off the 49ers. If they can do that they should be able to beat the Jags, even if they let up a little bit.

Colts 27
Jaguars 13

Seahawks at Texans

Despite being 2-1, you can make an argument that the Texans have yet to play a good game. They had to pull out late wins against San Diego and Tennessee and then were manhandled by Baltimore last week. The Seahawks, on the other hand, have looked fantastic the last couple of weeks in blow out wins against the 49ers and Jaguars. I just can’t see Matt Schaub leading the Texans to a win against that great Seattle defense.

Seahawks 31
Texans 20

Bengals at Browns

The Battle of Ohio! Look, I could try to sell you on how the Browns rallied together after Trent Richardson was traded and how Brian Hoyer looks like a diamond in the rough for them. Let’s be honest though, the Bengals are the better team. They have offensive weapons and their defense gave Aaron Rodgers a lot of problems. Maybe Hoyer will succeed where Rodgers failed…….yeah, I don’t think so either.

Bengals 27
Browns 17

Bears at Lions

The Marc Trestman experiment seems to be going well in Chicago thus far. Honestly, it may be less about Trestman than it is about Jay Cutler finally having an offensive line that can give him an actual pocket to throw from. Bears GM Phil Emery deserves a lot of credit for how he’s rebuilt that line in a relatively short amount of time. The outcome of this game may depend on the health of Reggie Bush. Playing at home in the dome with a 100% healthy Bush would make Detroit my pick. Without Bush, the ballhawking Chicago defense can key in on stopping Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson. Until I see Bush is back and healthy, I think I have to go with Chicago, especially with news that the Lions lost #2 WR Nate Burleson due to an injury he sustained in a car accident.

Bears 31
Lions 27

Jets at Titans

This is a battle of surprise 2-1 teams. If their previous games are any indication, this should be a game that goes right down to the wire. Geno Smith has already shown himself to be more of a playmaker than Jake Locker. However, Smith has also been prone to turning the ball over, something that Locker has avoided. It’s too early to know for sure, but it appears that Locker may be following the Alex Smith game plan for protecting the football. This is evident in these teams turnover margins. The Jets are -6 on the season while the Titans are +5. That turnover differential combined with the Titans being at home make Tennessee the pick here.

Jets 17
Titans 20

Redskins at Raiders

It’s tempting to take the Raiders in this one. They have played better football than most expected, especially Terrelle Pryor. However, with how serious the NFL is taking concussions now, don’t be surprised if Pryor sits for this week’s game. With Pryor I think this is a “pick um” game. Without him, the door is open for Washington to get their first win of the season. Despite all the attention around RG3’s performance thus far, the offense really hasn’t been that bad. It’s their defense that has been historically awful. The matchup with Oakland could be the first time they won’t be playing keep up with a prolific offense (especially if Pryor doesn’t play). Look for RG3 and his traveling media circus to finally get one in the win column.

Redskins 27
Oakland 20

Eagles at Broncos

Look, the Broncos are just playing too good to pick against right now. Peyton Manning may be playing the best football of his entire career, and he was in the discussion for best QB in the history of football already. Chip Kelly better get that offense of his fired up for this game because they may have to put up 40 points to beat Manning at home. If they turn the ball over like they did against KC, this could get ugly.

Eagles 27
Broncos 37

Cowboys at Chargers

I think this is a statement game for both teams. If Dallas wants to be a power in the NFC and establish themselves as the team to beat in their division, this is the kind of game they need to go on the road and win. For San Diego, everyone had already written them off as rebuilding before the season even started. However, they’re only a few plays away from being 3-0 instead of 1-2. If they want to prove to people that they are a good team this year they have to win these games at home. I really believe that Phillip Rivers and the offense are up to the task, it’s the San Diego defense that I have no faith in. Ultimately, I think the Cowboys win in a high scoring game.

Cowboys 34
Chargers 27

Patriots at Falcons

The Patriots ability to pull out wins so far this season despite all the offensive firepower that they have lost is pretty impressive. The Falcons, on the other hand, are off to a disappointing start after losing games at New Orleans and Miami. Although Atlanta does have its flaws, their roster is still too good to start the year 1-3. The Falcons are good at home and eventually all the loses that New England has sustained has to catch up with them.

Patriots 23
Falcons 27

Dolphins at Saints

Last week I said that if the Dolphins beat Atlanta, I would get on the bandwagon and pick them to win this week after picking them to lose the first three weeks of the season. The Dolphins did win, so I felt obligated to pick them in this game. However, I had a friend that’s a Dolphins fan inform me that I was under no circumstances to put my “bad juju” (his words, not mine) on his team by picking them for the first time when they’ve won each time I picked against them. I’m fine with that. The Saints defense is actually the biggest surprise of the season for me. I really thought that they would be horrible, but they’ve been anything but. The Saints will protect their home turf and I’ll avoid putting my “bad juju” on my friend’s team.

Dolphins 24
Saints 31

Now on to the food/drink/tailgating suggestion of the week…….