The Armchair Quarterback’s Guide To The NFL: Week 6

The Armchair Quarterback’s Week 6 Predictions

It was another good week last week for the Armchair Quarterback predictions, going 11-3 on the week (missing on Oakland, Arizona, and the Jets). That brings the record for the year to 53-24. Hopefully the momentum will continue into the week 6 picks.

Giants at Bears

It’s not been a good start to the year for the Giants. Actually, that’s a huge understatement. It’s been a horrendous start to the year for Eli Manning and the gang. In fact, I think Eli just turned the ball over again while you were reading this. If the turnovers weren’t enough, the defense has been equally putrid, giving up a mind numbing 36.4 points per game. While the Bears have had a few turnover problems of their own, at least their defense has them at +4 in turnover differential as opposed to New York’s -13. Plus, the Bears are at home and it appears that Jay Cutler has himself a pretty impressive quartet of weapons to work with in Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Martellus Bennett. The Giants woes will likely continue for another week.

Giants 24
Bears 31

Packers at Ravens

This is a good match up that will make a statement for whichever team wins. The loser will already have three loses and the winner will have kept pace within their division. This one could easily go either way. The Ravens are at home, but the Packers have the edge at quarterback. Joe Flacco hasn’t exactly lived up to the huge contract he signed in the offseason thus far and appears to be missing Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta. Look for Green Bay to mix in a healthy dose of Eddie Lacy and earn a hard fought road win here.

Packers 27
Ravens 24

Bengals at Bills

The Bengals redeemed themselves for getting beat up by the Browns the week before by winning a low scoring slug fest against the Patriots. This could be another trap game for them going into Buffalo. The Bills lost a close one to the Patriots at home in week one and then won both of their other home games against the Panthers and the Ravens. However, the loss of EJ Manuel could hurt their chances here. The Bills have decided to bypass Jeff Tuel and will give 4th year pro Thad Lewis his second career start. Despite these concerns at QB, I have a feeling Buffalo will make a game of this. If Cincy can contain the Bills rushing attack they should be able to pick up the road win, but it won’t come easy.

Bengals 27
Bills 20

Lions at Browns

The Browns have been the biggest surprise in the NFL the past few weeks, but the loss of Brian Hoyer was a set back. Now Brandon Weeden has another shot to prove he can start in the NFL. A big factor here is the health of Calvin Johnson. If Megatron was healthy, I’d probably take the Lion here. However, without Johnson the Browns will be able to focus on stopping Reggie Bush. You add to that the fact that the Browns are at home and I’ll take the Browns in another close one.

Lions 20
Browns 21

Rams at Texans

This is a battle of teams that just don’t look right. For the Texans, the main problem is clearly Matt Schaub who has been a one man death blow to what is still a talented Texans team. The Rams problems are a little more spread around. Their run game has been almost non-exsistant, they don’t seem to know how to use the weapons that they have in the passing game, and the defense that was supposed to be a strength for this team is giving up the 5th most points per game in the league. Here’s a weird stat, the Rams defense is giving up over 122 more yards per game than the Texans, but are only giving up 0.4 more points per game. This is most likely a result of Matt “Pick 6” Schaub. With the Texans at home, I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt one more time, but if Schaub self destructs again the Texans will have to bench him before I pick them to win again.

Rams 23
Texans 27

Panthers at Vikings

Panthers fans, is your team bipolar or what? They dismantle the Giants 38-0 and then have a bye week to prepare for the Arizona Cardinals, only to lose 22-6. Does that mean that Arizona would beat the Giants by 54? How in the world is anyone suppose to predict how they are going to play this week? Then there’s the Vikings who are going to continue to throw disappointing QBs at the wall until one sticks. Yes, Josh Freeman will likely be an upgrade over Ponder/Cassel, and if he’s not they can always sign Mark Sanchez in the offseason. Just kidding, I’m sure they wouldn’t do that (or would they?). Anyway, the Vikings are at home and while their defense hasn’t been great, their offense is putting up almost 10 points per game more than the Panthers despite their QB issues.

Panthers 20
Vikings 23

Raiders at Chiefs

(Homer Alert) The Chiefs are getting just the right amount of respect in NFL circles right now. They are getting lots of praise for their turnaround from 2-14 to 5-0. However, no one is talking about them being in the same league as the other two undefeated teams (Saints and Broncos). That’s fair, their offense certainly hasn’t been flashy and they haven’t played any real power house teams yet. What can’t be denied is how impressive their defense has been. They lead the league in points allowed, QB sacks, and turnover differential. The Raiders have been a pleasant surprise in how well they have played overall. Many thought they would be in the running for the first overall pick, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. They looked great against the Chargers on Sunday night. One thing that Oakland has going for them in this game is that KC’s attacking defense has allowed some big runs by opposing QBs. That having been said, Oakland will have their hands full dealing with the Arrowhead crowd who have people from Guinness coming to the game (the record keepers, not the beer) to see if they can break Seattle’s record for loudest crowd. It will be close, but KC should keep their winning streak going.

Oakland 17
Kansas City 23

Steelers at Jets

The Jets and Geno Smith were impressive on Monday Night Football this week. The NY defense is a legit force to be reckoned with. Smith is going to make rookie mistakes, but has shown he can make big time NFL caliber throws. The Steelers are another team that is off to an awful start. The problem with this match up for Pittsburgh is that their weakness (offensive line) has to go up against one of the Jets strengths (defensive line). Rex Ryan was seen as a lame duck coach before the season and deserves a lot of credit for keeping this team together. Look for the Jets to continue to roll at home this week.

Steelers 16
Jets 20

Eagles at Buccaneers

Am I in love with Chip Kelly as an NFL coach after 5 weeks? No. Would I take him over Greg Schiano as the coach of my team? Yes. I think Schiano has lost the Bucs and may be the first coach to be let go during the season. Mike Glennon may someday prove to be a reliable NFL starter, but I don’t think he’s there at this point. Could Glennon find success against a weak Eagles secondary? Perhaps, but I think it’s more likely that the Eagles secondary will find success against Mike Glennon. Even if Nick Foles plays over Mike Vick, I still like the Eagles to get the road win here.

Eagles 23
Buccaneers 19

Jaguars at Broncos

What do I…….I mean, it’s……..I don’t want to be mean about this, but……

(Sigh)

I’m sorry Jags fans. I’m really, REALLY sorry. The bad news is that I’m predicting that you’ll lose by 24 points. The good news is that I’m picking you to cover the point spread

Is that good news?

I don’t know. Let’s move on.

Jaguars 17
Broncos 41

Titans at Seahawks

The Jake Locker injury might be one of the most momentum changing injuries in the NFL this season. The Titans were off to an impressive 3-1 start before Locker was ruled out for at least three games. Those games included the Chiefs, Seahawks, and 49ers. Not exactly the three defenses you want your #2 QB having to face. The Titans are still a good solid team, but they are probably looking at a 3-4 record when Locker comes back (if he only misses three games). The Seahawks return home (where they are almost unstoppable) after suffering their first loss of the season. Look for the Seattle defense to exploit a couple of Ryan Fitzpatrick turnovers.

Titans 13
Seahawks 27

Saints at Patriots

Confession, I thought the Saints would struggle again this season, even with Sean Payton back. I thought they would likely have the worst defense in the year again.

I was 100% wrong.

I thought the Saints going on the road outdoors at Soldier Field and beating a pretty good Bears team was a great win. The Patriots, on the other hand, struggled offensively against the Bengals, but should get better as the year goes by and Tom Brady and his new weapons gel. However, they don’t look right yet due to all the injuries they’ve suffered. I just don’t think New England can keep up with the Saints offense this week, even if Rob Gronkowski does come back.

Saints 26
Patriots 19

Cardinals at 49ers

I’m not going to make any friends in Arizona by saying this, but I think the Cardinals are probably the worst team with a winning record right now. Carson Palmer is an upgrade over what the Cards had last season, but he’s on pace for 16 TDs and 29 INTs. If you want to pick a QB that’s on pace for 29 INTs to go into San Francisco and knock off the 49ers, that’s fine, but I won’t be joining you. The 49ers exploited Matt Schaub’s mistakes last week and will try to do the same to Palmer here.

Cardinals 16
49ers 29

Redskins at Cowboys

My original response to this game was to call it a must win for both teams. The Redskins don’t want to fall to 1-4 and the Cowboys don’t want to fall to 2-4. Normally, those records would make the playoffs a long shot. However, the NFC East is so down this season that sadly both teams could probably survive losses here and still have a shot at the division. I’m curious how Tony Romo will respond after that heartbreaking loss to the Broncos. I was following the game on Twitter when Romo threw that interception and it was funny (I’m sure not for Dallas fans) to see about 200 people all tweet “Typical Romo” at the same time. If Romo doesn’t let that loss get to him, he should be able to feast on the Washington defense. Opposing QBs are putting up almost 300 yards/game with a 67% completion percentage, 9.2 yards/attempt, and a 111.9 QB rating against the Redskins.

Washington 27
Dallas 34

Colts at Chargers

This is another hard game to predict because of the up and down play of the Chargers. Phillip Rivers has been good, but the defense hasn’t. The Colts have shown that they can beat good teams with recent wins over San Francisco and Seattle. The Colts offense should thrive against the struggling SD defense. Look for Andrew Luck and company to ultimately wear down the Chargers.

Colts 34
Chargers 26

Now on to the Food/Drink/Tailgating suggestion of the week…….