Next up, the second-ranked Florida State Seminoles.
Current Power Rank: 2
Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 61
Undefeated Chances: 65.6%
Closest Remaining Game: @ Florida (Nov 30) … One of the interesting developments for Alabama and FSU is that the conference championship game is no longer the toughest game remaining.
Teams that would be favored over Florida State on a neutral field: Alabama
Estimated Chances of Going 13-0 and Playing in BCS Title Game: 65.6% (if Florida State wins out, the Seminoles should be in)
A few notes on the undefeated odds above:
- Chances there are still six undefeated FBS teams on December 8 (after conference title games): 1.2% (or 1-in-82)
- Chances Alabama, Florida State, Baylor and Ohio State are undefeated on December 8: 7.6% (or 1-in-13)
- Chances that Alabama, Baylor, Ohio State and Florida State all have at least one loss on December 8: 3.9% (or 1-in-26)
- Chances that there are no undefeated teams in FBS on December 8: 1.0% (or 1-in-100)
- Estimated chances of a one-loss team in the BCS Championship Game: 24.7%
BCS Championship Games
Using the same simulation technology, we can simulate potential BCS National Championship games to project the likelihood of either team winning each possible game, including an average score outcome. Here are all possible games involving the four BCS-AQ undefeated teams (also, though Stanford is currently in the top four of the BCS Standings, all of these teams would be favored in our numbers over the Cardinal on a neutral field – though Ohio State would be just less than a one point favorite in the projection). Games listed in order of current likelihood (figures assume this scenario when both teams undefeated).
Alabama vs. Florida State
Chances of this BCS Championship Game: 42.7%
Simulated Result: Alabama wins 53% of the time
Projected Score: Alabama 27 – Florida State 25
Baylor vs. Florida State
Chances of this BCS Championship Game: 8.4%
Simulated Result: Florida State wins 58% of the time
Projected Score: Florida State 36 – Baylor 33
Ohio State vs. Florida State
Chances of this BCS Championship Game: 7.0%
Simulated Result: Florida State wins 69% of the time
Projected Score: Florida State 33 – Ohio State 25
Here’s how the Seminoles close out the season:
November 16 vs Syracuse, 3:30 pm EST, ABC/ESPN2
November 23 vs. Idaho, 3:30 pm EST, ESPNU
November 30 at Florida, TBD
A week later, they’ll play either Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami or Virginia Tech in Charlotte for the ACC Championship.