The Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks are squaring off in Super Bowl XLVIII on Sunday night. If you’re headed to a Super Bowl party with your friends and interested in how to bet the game, we got you covered. It looks like the line is Broncos -2.5, so that is what you should be asking for when making a wager.
The folks at Pro Computer Gambler break down all the data in this mega computer and run simulations to try and determine the best way to bet the game, and this is how they’ve summed it up.
From Pro Computer Gambler:
The biggest matchup advantage we’re seeing in this game is not related to Peyton Manning. I repeat, it has nothing to do with Peyton Manning. The biggest advantage goes to Seattle in a passing offense averaging +8.6 yards per pass attempt vs. Denvers’ passing defense giving up -7.1 yards per attempt. Everyone is busy talking about who or what will win: the number one offense or the number one defense. This is the biggest issue in my mind. Seattle’s offense is well balanced too of course with Marshawn Lynch; this means big problems on the coaching side trying to guess between rush and play action. Add to this, Denver is missing top pass rusher Von Miller and corner Chris Harris.
***The Seahawks are 15-4-0 SU (+11.26 ppg, 78.9%) and 15-4-0 ATS under head coach Pete Carroll when facing poor defenses averaging over 24 ppg allowed on the season.
****That is a perfect 4-0 if those teams were above .500 team records: CARDINALS, REDSKINS, 49ERS, TEXANS
(Pete Carroll is 16-5-1 ATS since 2011 with the Seahawks against plus .500 teams)
Next big thought, is each team’s respective Strength of Schedule. Both teams are 15-3 now; however, Seattle has suffered through the 8th most difficult SOS in the NFL while the Broncos have had an arguably EASY year ranking #17 in the league. I like the Seahawk’s 15-3 better than the Bronco’s 15-3
Solid points there and hard to argue with the data backing up the Seahawks like that. Pro Computer Gambler really give you a better look into the trends than information you can find from Sporting News’ Linemakers. Their data and trends are solely from this season where Pro Computer Gambler really examines the entirity of Carroll’s time in Seattle.
To better make a decision on how to bet the game, let’s look at Sporting News’ Linemakers data anyways. In Seattle’s last nine games against Denver, they’ve gone 3-6 against the spread (ATS). Both teams have been solid against the spread this season with the Seahawks covering 11 out of 16 games and the Broncos covering 10 out of 16.
Next: Making a case you should bet the Seahawks