College Basketball’s Dark Horse: The Gonzaga Bulldogs

It’s hard to say a team who has been to the NCAA tournament sixteen straight seasons is going to sneak up on many teams next season. Although, that’s just what the Gonzaga Bulldogs might do next season. Based on their lack of recent postseason success, it’s easy to write off the Gonzaga Bulldogs as another team who benefits form playing in a bad conference. That might have been true in past seasons, but the Bulldogs will surprise people in 2014-15. You can bet your bottom dollar on that.

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Coming off a 29-7 season, the Bulldogs, who were ousted in the NCAA tournament last season by the 1-seed Arizona Wildcats, return three starters and add two huge transfers eligible for next season along with two other dynamic incoming freshman who will make an impact next season. This roster is, by far, the most talented Gonzaga roster since the Adam Morrison-era, and I say that knowing the Bulldogs achieved their highest ranking ever and a one-seed in the NCAA tournament in 2012-13. That team had one NBA player, forward Kelly Olynyk, or two if you count Elias Harris, who played in the NBA for like a day or two. This Gonzaga team could possibly have five or six future NBA players; they’re that good.

Gonzaga’s Projected Starters:

PG: Kevin Pangos

SG: Gary Bell, Jr.

SF: Byron Wesley (transfer from USC)

PF: Kyle Wiltjer (transfer from Kentucky)

C: Przemek Karnowski

Notable Bench Players:

F: Angel Nunez

G/F: Kyle Dranginis

G: Josh Perkins (freshman)

G: Silas Melson (freshman)

F/C: Domantis Sabonis (freshman)

With all the turnover in college basketball and players leaving early for the NBA draft, predicting who is going to be good is extremely difficult and, often times, unpredictable, for lack of a better term. We have the same debate every season about talent vs. experience. Gonzaga is one of those teams who never has the most talented players in college basketball, but they almost always have the more experienced players, and that’s what makes them so good. This year, the talent is there, alongside the experience of playing the NCAA tournament, winning the conference, and with the addition of Kyle Wiltjer, winning a national championship.

It’s a long shot for Gonzaga to win the national championship. Las Vegas has them with the 18^th best odds in the country for winning the tournament at 45-to-1 right now. Those are pretty decent odds, if you ask me. It also proves the guys who put their money on the line on a regular basis believe Gonzaga has chance to make a real run at the title. Trust me, those guys know what they’re doing.

For Gonzaga to be successful next season, the Bulldogs need to be healthy. That was a major concern last season, and a main reason Gonzaga dropped three games in conference. Kevin Pangos battled turf toe and ankle injuries all last season, which kept him out of practice for most of the year. Gary Bell Jr. broke his hand and missed a chunk of time last season. Those injuries forced players to play out of position and definitely had a negative impact on the Bulldogs. Pangos and Bell are one of the best shooting backcourts in the country when they’re healthy. If they can stay healthy next season, make sure you bring an umbrella into The Kennel because the threes will be raining down. As seniors, it’s their last rodeo, and I don’t see Pangos and Bell going down without a fight. The rest of the team should follow suit.

At forward, Gonzaga will, most likely, start two transfers, Wesley from USC and Wiltjer from Kentucky. Replacing Dower’s offensive production of 15.0 PPG won’t be difficult with these two stars. Wiltjer is one of the best shooters in the entire country. With the way Gonzaga gets the ball up the court, Wiltjer is going to have opportunities to score and get plenty of open looks from three, something Gonzaga is as good as anyone in the nation in doing. Plus, Wiltjer just went through the

“Kelly Olynyk Redshirt Training Program”

for an entire year. Wiltjer could be an entirely different player than he was at Kentucky. We’ll just have to wait and see.

With Wesley, on the other hand, we won’t have to wait for anything. He’s a proven gunner in the Pac-12, and led USC in scoring last season. He’s the piece Gonzaga has been looking for, basically, forever. Wesley can score in a variety of ways, and his athleticism provides stability, both, offensively and defensively. Everyone should be excited to see what Wesley can do with players around him. He was the lone bright spot in USC’s basketball program last season. Hopefully, Wesley will shine at Gonzaga.

While point guard through power forward is a solid lineup, the X-factor for the upcoming season is the center, Przmek Karnowski. Early in his Gonzaga career, Karnowski had problems adjusting to the style of play, conforming to how the game is called compared to the European game, and just trying not trip over himself running up and down the court. Karnowski’s developed into a possible first-round draft pick, depending on if he can improve athletically and take his game above the rim. For a seven-footer, that shouldn’t be a problem, but it is for him. Karnowski had shown signs he’s ready to take the leap to the next level. He just needs to be more consistent, especially with his free throw shooting.

One of those signs happened in the NCAA tournament for Karnowski and Gonzaga moving forward. Karnowski was extremely difficult to deal with for Oklahoma State, who played Gonzaga in the first round (I know they call it the second round now) and lost to the Bulldogs. In the tournament (two games versus OK State and Arizona), Karnowski averaged nearly 15 points and 10 rebounds per game. If he can put up those numbers or even improve those numbers against quality competition next season, Gonzaga is going to be nearly impossible to stop offensively.

Mar 21, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs guard Kevin Pangos (4) reacts after making a basket against the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the first half of a men /

If Karnowski can play big inside by himself, Gonzaga can run more four-out sets, similar to what they did last season while Dower was on the bench. Gonzaga could, then, surround Karnowski with shooters, four to be exact, and force teams to make a choice between doubling Karnowski or giving up wide-open threes. Pangos, Bell, Wesley, and Wiltjer are all very good shooters (that might be an understatement) and will make teams pay if they leave them open. For viewing purposes and a love of three-pointers, I really hope teams double Karnowski and leave Gonzaga’s great shooters wide-open.

This Gonzaga team is solid, but if you had to pick out a weak point, it’d probably be the bench at this point. Dranginis is the most established bench player as a redshirt junior and should be fine playing 15-20 minutes per game, possibly more if he can be that glue guy he was at times last season. As for Nunez, I don’t see him getting much playing time off the bench unless Karnowski is in foul trouble, which unfortunately happens more often than not. I like Nunez, but his feel for the game is shaky. He can’t be relied upon to carry the team with consistent play or be an anchor off the bench.

The Bulldogs also return sophomore center Ryan Edwards. He filled in at times for Karnowski last season and when Dower was hurt. Like Nunez, Edwards is still learning the game and shouldn’t be relied on to help consistency. He’ll be a fine player, but he’s not quite there yet. That’s where Gonzaga will turn to freshman to help out, and hopefully they will.

The freshman duo of Perkins and Melson is the future backcourt of Gonzaga, and they’ll get a year to learn from one of the better backcourt tandems the Bulldogs have had recently in Pangos and Bell. Both, Perkins and Melson are too good to redshirt, based on the film I’ve seen on them. I really like what they can bring to Gonzaga. They’re so athletic, which is something Gonzaga guards have struggled with since Jeremy Pargo graduated years ago. Because of their athleticism, Perkins and Melson should be able to contribute right away. I know I said Karnowski could be the X-factor for this team, but if Perkins and Melson play like I think they’re capable of, they are going to be the reason Gonzaga makes a deep tournament run. That’s how good they are, and how much impact they could have on the college basketball landscape next season.

And, of course, we can’t forget about Sabonis. Like his dad Arvydas Sabonis, formerly of the Portland Trail Blazers, Domantis Sabonis is a skilled big man, and he should also play right away at Gonzaga. I could also see Head Coach Mark Few redshirting him and getting him used to the pace of play in college basketball. The Sabonis-Karnowski inside game is especially intriguing, but we’ll have to wait and see if it ever comes to fruition for the Bulldogs.

So, what will happen for the Gonzaga Bulldogs next season? Right now, the Final Four is probably the limit. They’re a legitimate contender to be one of the last four teams standing. We saw a 7-seed and an 8-seed play in the championship game last season. College basketball is in a constant state of flux. Gonzaga has been one of the most consistent teams in the last 15 seasons. 2015 might be the year of the Bulldogs. Think about it. They play in the WCC, have a tough out of conference schedule with games against UCLA and Arizona, and could potentially win 30 games next season. Plus, there’s a possibility of sending five or six players into the NBA over the next three or four years. That’s a team who can make deep run in the tournament if you ask me.