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Boston Red Sox: How will they construct their 2015 rotation?

By Jeff Louderback

Jul 26, 2014; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Clay Buchholz (11) works out prior to the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 26, 2014; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Clay Buchholz (11) works out prior to the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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They have shed four-fifths of the rotation that contributed to winning the 2013 World Series, and the lone remaining arm is statistically one of the worst starters in the majors this season. So how exactly does Boston Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington plan to construct a contention-worthy staff for 2015?

Cherington told the media last week that the Red Sox will be active in the free agent and trade markets for starting pitching this offseason. Jon Lester, who was dispatched to Oakland with Jonny Gomes for power-hitting outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, will undoubtedly be a target. Perhaps the time apart will cause separation anxiety for Red Sox ownership and Lester alike, leading them to reach a mutually agreeable deal. Likely, that will not happen unless the Red Sox extend an offer of at least six years.

Max Scherzer is unlikely to be pursued by Boston because of the contract length and annual salary he will command. James Shields is a more probable target because he will require fewer years. He will be 33 in December.

Aug 3, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) pitches during the eighth inning against the Oakland Athletics at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Bob Stanton-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 3, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) pitches during the eighth inning against the Oakland Athletics at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Bob Stanton-USA TODAY Sports /

If Lester is Plan A for Boston to secure an ace this offseason, then Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels is Plan B. Hamels makes sense for the Red Sox because he is the same age as Lester (30) but is already signed to a long-term contract at $22.5 million a year that could expire after the 2018 season when he is 34. There is a $20 million team option in 2019 and a $24 million vesting option that will be triggered if he tallies 400 innings from 2017 to 2018 and is not on the disabled list with an elbow or shoulder injury at the end of the 2018 campaign.

Hamels would give the Red Sox a proven ace-caliber arm who is signed to a deal that is palatable to ownership. While Lester would just cost the long-term financial commitment, Hamels would require parting ways with a load of top prospects, which the Red Sox possess. This deal could feature a package that would include one of the Red Sox prized catching prospects (Christian Vazquez or Blake Swihart); the versatile Mookie Betts or center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr.; a starting pitching prospect of two (likely among Henry Owens, Rubby De La Rosa, Anthony Ranaudo and Matt Barnes) and second baseman Sean Coyle (who is from the Philadelphia area)

Starting pitching prospects not dealt this offseason will be 2015 rotation candidates for Boston.

Brandon Workman, Allen Webster and De La Rosa are currently getting their auditions. Ranaudo made his Major League debut last Friday, earning a victory over the New York Yankees at Fenway Park while allowing two runs over six innings. He was optioned to Triple-A Pawtucket but is expected to get more starts with the Red Sox before the season ends.

The organization’s top pitching prospect, 21-year-old left-hander Henry Owens, tossed a shutout in his Triple-A debut on Monday and could see his first taste of the majors in September.

Team officials agree that Owens and Ranaudo are starters. Workman, De La Rosa and Webster could remain as starters or serve in late-inning bullpen roles. De La Rosa is even considered a potential closer.

Of the two starters in the current rotation who have more than a cup of coffee in the majors, Joe Kelly is most likely to remain there next season. Acquired along with outfielder/first baseman Allen Craig from St. Louis for John Lackey, is expected to fill a rotation spot in 2015. The 26-year-old right-hander battled a hamstring injury earlier this year, but he has posted impressive numbers (including a 10-5 record and a 2.69 ERA in 37 games, including 15 starts last season) over two-plus big league campaigns with the Cardinals.

Clay Buchholz is now the alleged anchor of the rotation, but there is no guarantee that he will occupy a spot on Boston’s 2015 opening day roster. After serving up seven runs against the Yankees on Sunday, he is now 5-7 with a 6.20 ERA in 18 starts this year. Wildly inconsistent, Buchholz has stretches when he pitches like a dominant ace and periods when he does not deserve a spot on any team’s rotation.

Buchholz will turn 30 on August 14, and his salary balloons from $7.7 million this year to $12 million in 2015. He has a $13 million team option and a $245,000 buyout for 2016. Should Buchholz continue to struggle in August and September, the Red Sox could decide to shop him this offseason, even though they will be in the market for at least two frontline starters and even if they have to eat part of his salary for 2015.

Considering his atrocious numbers this year, Buchholz would likely fetch little on the trade market. If the Red Sox would trade him, it would be to free a rotation spot for one of the younger arms to complement the veterans the team will bring in this offseason.

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