Revisiting the vetoed Chris Paul to Los Angeles Lakers trade
By John Bauman
On December 9th, 2011, the NBA landscape was forever altered when NBA commissioner David Stern vetoed the Chris Paul to Los Angeles Lakers trade. Stern infamously declined the trade for what he called “basketball reasons.” Stern even put up air quotes around “basketball reasons” in his post-veto press conference (I would assume.) That ruling sparked a national debate in the NBA media universe about what the definition of “basketball reasons” is and if the trade was fair or not.
Far more reaching than the impact of the reason for the cancellation of the trade was the impact that the cancellation had. The terms of the vetoed trade are as follows…
Houston would have received Pau Gasol from the Lakers
New Orleans would have received Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Goran Dragic and a first round pick from the Rockets and Lamar Odom from the Lakers
Los Angeles would have received Chris Paul from New Orleans
First, lets gauge the impact on the Rockets. Looking back on this cancelled trade almost three years after illuminates a new perspective that was unknown at the time. That’s a long winded way of alluding to the James Harden trade and its role in the Chris Paul trade.
The Rockets would have sent Martin, Scola, Dragic and a first round pick in the trade to New Orleans, getting Pau Gasol in return. That was a very short term trade for the Rockets, and it makes assembling the James Harden to Houston trade much more difficult.
Kevin Martin was one of the big pieces in the James Harden trade. If you forgot, the terms were James Harden for Martin, Jeremy Lamb, two first rounders, one of which became Steven Adams, and a second rounder. (Yeah, it didn’t look good at the time or now.) Keep in mind that the Thunder’s motives can’t be judged purely on basketball reasons, because they were ingrained in trading Harden no matter what for financial reasons.
But its hard to envision a scenario in which Harden gets traded to the Thunder if the trade goes down. If you substitute Gasol for Martin, the nitty gritty salary cap stuff doesn’t quite work out. It would have taken an extra trade from Daryl Morey to flip Gasol for either a first rounder or something else more cap friendly. Morey would have tried to pull it off, no doubt. But in a world in which the Thunder were looking at the trade for “basketball reasons” only, OKC doesn’t accept a package including Jeremy Lamb and three first rounders.
The alternate universe in which the CP3 trade goes down can be played out as far as you want. Out there example- the Rockets would have had more cap space this summer with Gasol coming off the books, so would that have made them a more attractive landing spot for Carmelo Anthony or LeBron James? Focusing in on just the impact on the Rockets roster, without looking at all the extra iterations, would the Rockets pick two years of Pau Gasol or James Harden and eventually Howard? They pick Harden and Howard every day of the week. The cancellation of the trade worked out okay for the Rockets.
For the Lakers, things don’t go as smoothly. With Chris Paul, a healthy Andrew Bynum and Kobe Bryant in tow, the Lakers are a perennial force to be reckoned with in the Western conference for at least as long as Kobe is in uniform. The team certainly doesn’t fall apart like the did this season with a healthy Chris Paul in tow. Also, the team probably doesn’t sign Steve Nash, who has ended up as a salary cap burden to have around. Nash was acquired in a July 2012 sign and trade with Phoenix. If that trade never happens, Nash probably goes to the Knicks, which was his second choice all throughout his 2012 free agent period. I can’t even imagine Nash on an already old and creaky 2014 roster.
The other main acquisition for the team over the time span between the CP3 trade and now was Dwight Howard. Howard was sent to the Lakers as a part of a four team deal in August of 2012. If Paul and Bryant were already in place, is Howard more likely to resign with the Lakers in the summer of 2013? I say so. Howard left L.A. for a multitude of reasons, but with another established star and notable “NBA good guy” Chris Paul in place, Howard can see a scenario in which the Lakers are much more competitive in years to come. I believe that Howard stays with the Lakers in the summer of 2013 if the Chris Paul trade would have been accepted, which throws the NBA landscape into another crazy set of chain reactions.
The Lakers were the real losers of the whole ordeal. Yes, the Pelicans have a worse record over the last few seasons and still haven’t made the playoffs, but they have Anthony Davis, destroyer of worlds. The Lakers have an aging Kobe Bean Bryant, Steve Nash, and not much else right now. To make matters worse, Chris Paul is playing in the Staples Center, just for another team. I’m sure Mitch Kupchak throws a dart at each letter of “basketball reasons” before he goes to bed each night.
Finally, lets take a look at the impact on the Pelicans. Mentioned above, the Pelicans backed into Anthony Davis basically by accident. If they add Dragic, Scola, Martin and Lamar Odom to their 2011-12 team, they win many more than 21 games and probably don’t get such good odds in the 2012 lottery and thus probably don’t land Davis.
Win Shares in 2011-2012, per basketball-reference.com
What the Pelicans would have got in the rejected CP3 trade
Goran Dragic- 5.1
Luis Scola- 3.4
Kevin Martin- 3.3
Lamar Odom- 0.3
What the Pelicans got in the actual CP3 trade
Eric Gordon- 0.7
Al-Farouq Aminu- 1.4
Chris Kaman- 0.7
The numbers aren’t perfect, because the players would be playing with new teams in the alternate scenario and the stats would work out differently. But its fair to say the haul in the rejected CP3 trade is a more than 21 win team, which is what the Pels actually got in 2011-12. Now, the Pelicans probably still win the 2012 lottery because David Stern rigged it, right angry Charlotte Hornets fans?. Regardless, the Pelicans are happy with Anthony Davis, destroyer of worlds, on the team for the forseable future.
The trade is overall very interesting. One day, if mankind ever invents an NBA alternate universe time machine or something like that, I will be second in line to go in behind Bill Simmons, who will probably never come out of such a machine. But to sum up the trade to finish…
Winner: Houston Rockets
They get James Harden and Dwight Howard later on, so they can’t be complaining.
Loser: Los Angeles Lakers
The point guard the team desperately needed goes to the other Los Angeles franchise, throwing the Lakers into a slow tailspin culminating in last year’s lost season.
Winner: New Orleans Pelicans
They didn’t get a Kevin Love caliber haul for their star player, but they ended up with the Unibrow. Small losers for drafting Austin Rivers 10th in the 2012 draft with the extra pick in the actual Chris Paul trade.
Winner: Chris Paul
For basketball reasons only, (aka ignoring the Donald Sterling part of the equation,) Paul is happy playing with Blake Griffin and Doc Rivers for the Clippers.
What do you think of the vetoed Chris Paul trade? Let us know in the comments below!