SEC has top four spots in ESPN FPI rankings for Week 4

By Mike Marteny | Sep 21, 2014

Sep 13, 2014; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide mascot Big Al waves the Alabama flag following their 52-12 victory against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports /

Over the last couple of seasons, ESPN has tried to come up with a formula that combines the human polls with computer rankings along with factoring in strength of schedule to give a more comprehensive ranking to NCAA football teams. The result is their FPI (football power index) rankings, which accounts for the AP Poll, and their index of 10,000 simulations of each game over the rest of the season based on results so far.

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72 of the 128 teams are projected with a positive FPI. Anything over 10 is very good. Over 20 is exceptional. For the full listings, see here.

It should come as no surprise that the top four in the ESPN rankings all reside in the SEC. While the polls are designed to be “fair”, the assumption is that numbers don’t lie.

Here is what the top 25 would look like if it were all up to the FPI:

1. Alabama: Finally played to their potential against Florida

2. Texas A&M: Hammering SC in Columbia has them as computer darlings.

3. Auburn: Win on the road at Manhattan drops them two slots. Hmm…..

4. Georgia: Skunked Troy, but that couldn’t have helped much

5. Florida State: Their play hasn’t been championship caliber in the computer’s eyes either.

6. Oklahoma: They do have the third best chance of winning out though.

7. Oregon: You can’t ride the coattails of early big wins for long in this system since it counts remaining strength of schedule.

8. Mississippi: Only projected for nine wins per simulation.

9. Baylor: Projected for ten wins again.

10. UCLA: Poor on field performance sinking the Bruins so far.

11. Mississippi State: Win over LSU in Baton Rouge didn’t count for much in computer rankings.

12. LSU: It didn’t really hurt LSU either apparently.

13. USC: Loss to BC hurt, but remaining SOS keeps them afloat.

14. Notre Dame: Projected for nine wins, which is good considering their schedule.

15. Stanford: The rankings like the PAC 12 too.

16. Clemson: Highest ranked two loss team.

17. Ohio State: Still the highest ranked Big 10(14) team.

18. BYU: Has impressed voters and computers with strong play.

19. Wisconsin: Are they second best in the Big 10? That’s debatable.

20. Arkansas: Destroying teams on the ground has Hogs back to relevant in computer eyes. Oh, and they have the toughest remaining SOS.

21. Florida: Horrible defense against Bama and Kentucky didn’t drop them?

22. South Carolina: Interesting ranking system they have here considering the Cocks beat the number four in this system.

23. Arizona State: Remaining SOS is 4.

24. Michigan State: Weakness of OOC schedule and Big Ten as a whole hurting Sparty for now.

25. Utah: Big win in an even Bigger House puts them into top 25.

Perhaps the most interesting part is that 10 of the 14 SEC teams are in the top 25. Another (Missouri) is in the top 30.

According to this, Marshall has the best chance of winning out. In fact, their lowest remaining win percentage is their next game on October 4th at Old Dominion.

If nothing else, this explains to us why computer rankings aren’t the only thing that matters. How many of us actually believe that SEC has the four best teams? If nothing else, it is certainly grounds for an interesting debate.

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