Early NHL Playoff Projections: Contenders and Pretenders
By Mike Majeski
Taking a look at the early NHL playoff picture and determining who’s a contender and who’s a pretender
I know, we’re barely into the third week of the NHL season – it’s way to early to be taking a look at the playoff picture. Teams that are off to hot starts could be playing for Connor McDavid by the time April and May roll around. There is not a real set date when the sample size becomes large enough to form legitimate opinions about team performances, but often Thanksgiving (the US version) is agreed upon as a safe place to start.
I plan to do another one of these posts around that time to see how things have changed, but in order to gain a starting point, I thought three weeks would be a good place to start. By now nearly every team has at least played five games, had their home openers and has either completed or started a road trip.
If the playoffs started today the Montreal Canadiens would win the Atlantic, with the Tampa Bay Lightning in second and the Ottawa Senators in third. The Washington Capitals would win the Metropolitan, with the New York Islanders in second and the New York Rangers in third. The two Wild Card teams would be the Detroit Red Wings and the Boston Bruins.
Over in the Western Conference, the Nashville Predators would win the Central Division, with the Chicago Blackhawks in second and the Dallas Stars in third. The Anaheim Ducks would win the Pacific, with the Los Angeles Kings in second and the San Jose Sharks in third. The two Wild Card teams out of the West would be the Calgary Flames and the Vancouver Canucks.
There are several surprising teams listed there that were not expected to be in any sort of playoff discussion this season. There are also some notable teams on the outside looking in, including the St. Louis Blues, Pittsburgh Penguins, and the Philadelphia Flyers.
First let’s take a look at which of the teams that are currently in the playoffs are legitimate contenders, starting with the Eastern Conference.
Eastern Conference Contenders
1. team. 152. Through six games the Montreal Canadiens are 5-1-0 and sit at the top of the Atlantic Division. However, the Canadiens aren’t even playing their best hockey yet. They are 10th in the league in goals per game (averaging 3.00 per game) and are averaging the 5th most against per game (3.33). They do rank fourth overall in goals for, with 18, but they have given up 20. According to war-on-ice, the Canadiens PDO currently sits at 100.04, which is near the natural point. The Canadiens are neither over or under-performing and have earned wins against some good teams so far, including the Washington Capitals, Boston Bruins, and the Detroit Red Wings. I’d like to see better numbers on offense and fewer goals allowed, but it is difficult to imagine a scenario where the Canadiens miss the playoffs.. (6-1-0). . Montreal Canadiens
2. team. 106. After a hot start to the season the New York Islanders have lost two straight, including last night’s 5-2 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs. The 2013-14 Islanders took a disappointing step back last season and missed the playoffs. With a great start to the season, many are hoping that this is the year that the Islanders get back on track. With Jaroslav Halak in net, the Islanders goaltending situation has vastly improved over last season and this is reflected in the fact that the Islanders are in the middle of the pack when it comes to goals against (15), and actually have a positive goal differential (4) with 19 goals for, which is tied with three other teams for first. Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy have added some legitimacy to the blue line and with John Tavares and Kyle Okposo up front, the Islanders have finally put together a complete package. I don’t see the Islanders winning the Metropolitan Division, but I think they will remain in the playoff picture this season. . (4-2-0). . New York Islanders
19. The Washington Capitals have not lost a game in regulation through five games of the 2014-15 season. The more amazing thing? The Capitals have learned to play some defense under Barry Trotz. They are currently averaging the 7th fewest goals allowed per game (1.80), all while averaging the third most goals for per game (3.40). The Capitals are over-performing with a PDO of 104.44, the third highest in the league right now. The defense has improved and their puck possession is good: they have a Fenwick% of 53.12, the 9th highest in the league. Like the Islanders, I do not expect the Capitals to win the Metropolitan Division, but I expect them to be in the top three when the playoffs roll around. . (3-0-2). . Washington Capitals. 3. team
Next we’ll take a look at the contenders currently in the playoff picture in the Western Conference.
Western Conference Contenders
team. 105. Watching the Ducks so far, you get the sense that they aren’t even playing their best hockey yet. And still, they have 10 points in the standings and are in first place in the Pacific Division. They are in a three-way tie for first for goals for (19), but are right in the middle of the pack for goals against (13). The Ducks are averaging the 5th most goals per game, with 3.33 and the 11th fewest goals allowed per game, with 2.17. Goaltender John Gibson was expected to make a ru for the starting position, but required a conditioning stint in the AHL this past week. Fredrik Andersson has a firm hold on the starting position for now and leads the league with five wins. With the Los Angeles Kings still nursing a Stanley Cup hangover, the Ducks remain one of the favorites out of the Pacific Division.. (5-1-0). . Anaheim Ducks. 1
team. 94. The Chicago Blackhawks are another team that have yet to lose a game in regulation. I don’t think there is a doubt in anyone’s mind that the Blackhawks are going to make the playoffs this year and are easily one of the contenders to represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Final. The Blackhawks have gone all in on this season and this is their final shot before the core of the team is split up to get under the salary cap. The Blackhawks are 16th overall in goals per game (2.75), but are only averaging 1.75 goals against, the 6th best in the league.. (4-0-1). . Chicago Blackhawks. 2
team. 67. Sure they look a little hung over, but the Los Angeles Kings have always operated under the mantra of just getting into the playoffs. From there this team magically transforms into an unstoppable Stanley Cup winning machine. At some point their fortune may run out, but the Los Angeles Kings will be in the playoffs this year. The Anaheim Ducks will likely win the Pacific Division, but the Kings have always been content with the seventh or eighth seed. It is very rare for a Cup winning team to miss the playoffs the following year, so you can almost guarantee the Kings will be in the playoffs come May.. (4-1-1). . Los Angeles Kings. 3
Next we will take a look at the pretenders in the Eastern and Western Conference
Eastern Conference Pretenders
1. team. 72. Yes, having the Detroit Red Wings miss the playoffs has been the trendy pick for like the last decade, but I think this really is the year that their miraculous streak of playoff appearances comes to an end. There are too many teams that are better than the Red Wings on the outside looking in, including the Pittsburgh Penguins, Philadelphia Flyers, New Jersey Devils, and even the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Red Wings power play has been terrible to start the season. They currently have a 8.3 PP%, 27th in the league. I won’t rule out the Red Wings making a last second dash for the Wild Card (like last season), but the Eastern Conference has gotten better this season.. (3-1-2). . Detroit Red Wings
2. team. 95. Rick Nash has finally shown up for the New York Rangers, but they are starting the season with some costly injuries. The 2013-14 New York Rangers caught fire at the right time last season and somehow ended up in the Stanley Cup Final. This is not that team. Key pieces have shipped out and what is left makes for a playoff bubble team. Henrik Lundqvist can always tip the scales in the Rangers favor, but can we really expect the Rangers to ride Henrik’s coattails into another playoff run? . (4-3-0). . New York Rangers
Western Conference Pretenders
. Calgary Flames. 1. team. 112. The Calgary Flames are turning heads after a hot start (no pun intended) to their season. However, this is a team in transition and one that was not expected to be in the playoff picture this season. Think of them more as where the Edmonton Oilers should be at this point in their rebuild. The Flames have a good team and currently are slotted into the Wild Card spots. But with several good teams on the outside looking in, there just isn’t room for the Flames in the playoff picture. . (4-3-0)
104. Remember when the Canucks were supposed to be an absolute dumpster fire this season? So far the Canucks are off to a surprising 3-2-0 start (with their latest loss being last night’s 6-3 loss to the Dallas Stars). The Canucks still have more talent on the roster than a team like the Flames, and Ryan Miller is still a legitimate starting goaltender in the NHL. However, much like the Flames, I see the Canucks just being a bubble team. At the very best they can hope to sneak into a Wild Card spot, but I think those are reserved for teams like Arizona and Minnesota. . (3-2-0). . Vancouver Canucks. 2. team
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