Anatomy of the Upset: Breaking Down Sunday’s 1 PM Upsets

We break down the NFL upsets from Week 11

Sunday’s 1 PM slate of NFL games featured four rather impressive “upsets”. Despite having a better record going into Sunday, the Cincinnati Bengals were not expected to go into the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and defeat the New Orleans Saints. Coinciding with that road victory was the Houston Texans’ efforts in the near-freezing temperatures on Lake Erie in Cleveland, Ohio. Then the two Missouri teams used home field advantage to trigger their own upset victories.

While no two football games are alike, there are three major statistical similarities between each of the four winning teams in these games.

1. The winning team in the upset won the turnover battle, or was even, and was relatively even in lost sack yardage.

In the freezing cold, the Houston Texans’ defense caused (or at least saw) three Cleveland fumbles, actually managing to recover only one of them. It was of course forced by JJ Watt—who based on his four total touchdowns, and all-out dominance as a rush defender and pass-rusher—should be the NFL MVP, if Houston even enters Week 16 sniffing the playoffs.

Meanwhile, third-year Inside Linebacker Mike Mohamed collected his first career interception to give the Texans’ a plus-one turnover margin, as Ryan Mallett, in his first career NFL start, only threw one pick. JJ Watt and Akeem Dent each recorded a sack for Houston, while the Texans’ offensive line did not allow Mallett to see the turf in his initiation into the starting Quarterback post.

In Kansas City, the Chiefs actually lost the turnover battle because of two fumbles, while Seattle did not turn the ball over. But Alex Smith was careful with the football, never really throwing a pass in serious danger of being picked off. Just as importantly, Smith was never sacked whilst Russell Wilson was brought to the ground twice, for 10 total lost yards.

In New Orleans, turnovers and sacks were essentially a non-factor. Neither Andy Dalton, nor Drew Brees threw an interception. Dalton was sacked just one time for one yard by Parys Haralson. Brees was well-protected by his offensive line.

In St. Louis, Peyton Manning threw two costly picks—one into the arms of Alec Ogletree, the other a work of Trumaine Johnson. Shaun Hill was reliable, as he took only two sacks, and was never intercepted. Manning was also sacked twice.

2. The winning team won, or was nearly even, in third down conversion percentage.

Of the four winning teams in these upset victories, only Kansas City lost the third down battle. Kansas City, though had such a great game plan that they only faced the down six times, converting two of them (33 percent). Seattle faced the down far more often—12 times, converting five of them (41 percent). More on this below, but Kansas City could afford to “lose” the third down battle, and for that matter the turnover battle, because they were so efficient in the other major areas, including Point No. 3.

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Cincinnati converted a ridiculous 69 percent of their third downs—including a perfectly thrown streak pattern on third-and-18 to A.J. Green, who may have gotten away with a push-off on the play. The Bengals allowed Drew Brees and the Saints’ offense to convert an unbelievable 61 percent, but held the Saints out of the end zone on a fourth-and-goal flat route to Fullback Erik Lorig, which was one of two huge plays at the goalline which ultimately created the significant margin of victory in Cincinnati’s stunning annihilation.

St. Louis and Denver were basically even—St. Louis: 35 percent to Denver: 33 percent—on third down. The same could not be said in Cleveland, where Houston clearly created much of the distance in that contest. The Texans converted seven of 18 third downs (38 percent), while the hometown Browns managed a meager 20 percent in 15 attempts.

3. The winning team ran the ball more often, and overall more effectively, while throwing the ball less often.

Of the three statistical points here, this is the only one that held true in all four upsets.
Rookie Alfred Blue outran the Browns by himself (36 times for 156 yards), but second-year back Jonathan Grimes joined him with 13 carries 54 yards. Clearly, the Texans’ commitment to the run was crucial to their “upset” road victory.

While Seattle actually attempted more rushes, Kansas City was more effective overall. Seattle’s net rushing yards went over 200, while Kansas City’s came up shy at 190. But Kansas City was nearly a yard better based on per attempt metrics. Both teams were good, but the Chiefs averaged 6.3 yards per rush.

Meanwhile, Seattle—as a result of their being down for the majority of the contest—was forced to throw the ball literally double the amount that Alex Smith did, 32 to 16. But Russell Wilson only threw for 70 more yards despite doubling his attempts. Smith was clearly more efficient with his attempts, completing 11 of his 16 throws.

In the confines of the dome, Andy Dalton completed 16 of 22 throws for a very efficient 220 yards and three touchdowns. Drew Brees threw almost twice as often, 41, completing a very respectable 33 of them. But Brees only threw for 35 more yards. Dalton’s yards per attempt was more than 3 yards better than the number Brees posted. Impressively, despite relative ineffectiveness early, Sean Payton stayed committed to the run. But the Bengals had much more success in that department. Rookie, and native Louisianan, Jeremy Hill had a wonderful day with 27 carries for 152 yards, including a 62-yard gallop to setup a field goal with one second to go in the first half.

Finally, Peyton Manning significantly out-yardaged Shaun Hill, but in almost twice as many throws. The future Hall-of-Famer had to chuck it 54 times to gain 389 yards, while Shaun Hill went 20-of-29 to get to 220 yards. The Broncos only attempted nine true runs (Manning kneeled down to end the first half), while Tre Mason ran 29 times for 113 yards. Efficiency-wise, the Rams were not brilliant, but their commitment to the run was clearly a huge factor in their victory.

A few other factors were noticeable actually watching the games, not simply looking at the box scores. Kansas City, especially, was quite effusive in their use of pre-snap motion to get the defense moving side-to-side. Sometimes they would hand the ball off on a jet sweep, other times they would hand it off straight up the middle.

And Jamaal Charles’ first touchdown came on a reverse-pivot option from under center. The Chiefs dusted off an old school playbook to move the ball efficiently against the team recently known as “the best defense in the league”.

There is no rhyme or reason in terms of which holes teams ran through most effectively in these four upsets victories. The Chiefs ran 12 times for 102 yards up the middle, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Cincinnati was most effective running behind Right Guard Kevin Zeitler—running nine time 103 yards (which strangely includes Hill’s 62-yard scamper to end the first half, though Hill cut back on that run).

The Rams were not mind-blowingly successful running through any one hole, but tended to have more success running off tackle, either right or left. The Texans, similar to Kansas City, had their most success running in between the tackles.

What Does it Mean For the Rest of 2014?

First, we can say that Gregg Williams look like Bobby Valentine. It’s as if he decided to take a play out of Valentine’s book and redo his look as if no one would remember who he was previously. But I digress; the point is that Williams seems to be the only Defensive Coordinator in the NFL who can consistently tame Peyton Manning. Teams will of course mimic his Sunday game plan, but it seems Williams knows something no one else does.

Second, the Chiefs are capable of winning games any which way it seems, but they are a running team first. Andy Reid continues to dial up great game plans against some of the league’s best teams.

Interestingly, they are all run-centric, though. What a difference from his Philly days!

Third, Cincinnati and Houston are not as dead as we thought they were. If both can commit to running the ball and playing turnover-free football from here on out, we may see yet another boring early Saturday afternoon Wild Card Game between those two teams.

Yawn.

All kidding aside, though, these four upsets taught us a lot about what we thought we already knew, but had been questioning as of late: running the football efficiently, limiting turnovers and sacks while creating them defensively and converting on third down are integral to winning in the NFL. We just expected it would be the four teams opposite these that would do these things better last Sunday.

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