Super Bowl 49: One pivotal key for each team plus predictions
By Robby Sabo
Now that preparation is done, we look for the crucial keys each team must pull off to win Super Bowl XLIX.
With such an evenly matched game between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots, where do we look to find those critical keys for success?
I’m sure you’re just as sick as reading about “matchups” and “keys” and “x-factors” as I am, but there’s one more opportunity to discuss the matchup and the time is now.
Sure, it’s obvious that whichever team controls the line of scrimmage best will have the better shot at winning.
If Legarrette Blount finds success like Eddie Lacy did two weeks ago it will go a long way for the Patriots. Of course if Marshawn Lynch runs for over 150 Seattle is sitting pretty. Controlling the line of scrimmage is always the most elementary (and sometimes overlooked) reason teams have success.
For Seattle, having Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril get to Tom Brady like they did Peyton Manning in last year’s Super Bowl will be huge.
We are not here to discuss the obvious.
We are here to to look to that one specific, less frequently discussed key for each team.
For example, because both of these teams are so evenly matched up and down the board, putting up six-points in the red zone will be critical. If either team has to settle for field goals 50 percent or more of the time tomorrow night, then I’ll be against them 10 out of 10 times.
Just ask Aaron Rodgers about their lack of Red Zone efficiency in the NFC Championship Game. If they scored touchdowns instead of field goals on those two gift-wrapped drives, they’d be in Arizona right now.
Patriots 1 Pivotal Key: Tom Brady must loosen up the Seahawks defense
Every football expert from East to West is describing the Patriots run game as the key to success on offense.
Of course it is.
The problem is I don’t see this team having success running the ball straight up on the Seattle defense. I mean how could you?
The Patriots run game is more confusing than Bruce Jenner.
Blount and the power game destroyed the Colts. It was a washout. Blount went for 148 yards and three touchdowns on 30 carries.
The reason though was not because of the Pats dominating run game, it was obviously because the Colts were not ready for primetime. Just one week earlier the Pats set a new record for a team to win a playoff game with the fewest rushing yards with 14 against the Ravens.
Now, while admittedly the middle of that Seahawks defense isn’t what it was last year with the loss of Brandon Mebane, why would anybody think the Pats would automatically have great success in the run game against the Seahawks tonight?
Bobby Wagner, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are still in that box ready to shut down that run. The Pats ranked 18th in rushing during the regular season while the Seahawks ranked 3rd against the run.
It’s just not going to happen against the Seahawks unless they set it up correctly.
While he’s not a deep passer anymore, Brady is going to need a couple of deep hits early on to get the Legion of Boom thinking. Hitting Brandon Lafell over the top against Byron Maxwell or Richard Sherman, or finding a streaking Rob Gronkowski in the seam in between Wagner, Thomas and Chancellor will be their way of backing up a very aggressive Seahawks defense.
Everybody knows what kind of defense Buffalo Bills head coach Rex Ryan draws up. It’s aggressive and very extravagant in nature as he often sends six or seven guys at the quarterback. He never met an all-out blitz he didn’t like.
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Seattle’s defense is also aggressive, perhaps most aggressive in the league. However, they rarely blitz and extravagant is a word that’s not in their dictionary.
As aggressive as they are, they do it in a straight up fashion playing one safety over the top (Thomas), Chancellor robbing the middle, and allowing Sherman and Maxwell to take away deep and outside thirds.
The nature of their Cover 3 zone defense perfectly matches up against the Pats short passing game which uses a ton of motion, rubs, picks and tight ends and running backs.
Brady will need to drastically get the Seahawks thinking. One of the ways will be to beat Maxwell or Sherman over the top, forcing Seattle to back up Chancellor and give a Cover 2 look in certain situations.
Seahawks 1 Pivotal Key: LOB Must Stay Healthy
This one seems like a no brainer, but if Thomas, Sherman and now Chancellor cannot play at the level that their used to, Brady will cut them up using the same style he has all season.
Not enough is being made of these injuries.
Another reason this is even more critical is because the Seahawks pass rush is not what is was last year. They smothered Peyton Manning with a constant four-man rush, giving him no time to breathe. While questions do surround Brady’s offensive line, they always seem to play well on the biggest of stages.
Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril will be enormous factors.
While the Seahawks aggressive defense is perfect for the Pats short passing game, the reason they are is because of Thomas, Sherman and Chancellor.
According to many, Thomas is the best defensive player in the game. The entire reason Dan Quinn and Seattle can play the way they do is because of his innate ability to play center field and take away almost half of the middle of the field.
While they essentially give a Cover 3 look on almost every down, Sherman and Maxwell play more quarters while Thomas covers half.
If having Thomas and Sherman banged up wasn’t enough, now Chancellor has appeared on the injury report due to a bum knee.
Remember when Chancellor hit Demaryius Thomas early in last year’s game which set the tone for the entire game?
That won’t happen this year if these guys are too banged up. This play was a direct result of a straight Cover 1 with Thomas over the top and Chancellor robbing underneath.
"Because of Deflate-Gate, Marshawn Lynch and the rest of Roger Goodell’s nonsense, not enough has been made out about these injuries. They are extremely important in the grand scheme of this game."
People tend to put them aside because they’re all planning on playing.
Of course they’re planning on playing. The question will be whether they can play to the level their used to, or even finish the game.
Sherman couldn’t even finish the game in last year’s Super Bowl. Rodney Harrison was injured and couldn’t finish against the Carolina Panthers back in the 2003 season. It happens so often, and for a defense that is only great when all of their key pieces are in place, it’s critical that these three guys are okay.
Remember when Wagner missed five games during the regular season earlier in the year? The defense was not playing well and questions starting surrounding a fall-off. This fall off included a Week 11 matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. Jamaal Charles gouged them and Seattle gave up 24 points and 190 yards rushing.
Bobby Wagner missed that game. Since Wagner’s return all has been right with the world in Seattle.
Super Bowl XLIX Prediction: Patriots 24, Seahawks 20 – MVP: Julian Edelman
As long as all three members of the Legion of Boom are healthy enough to play to the level we are used to, I don’t see Blount having success on the ground unless Brady makes them think twice. I also don’t see Brady having his usual success in their very identifiable short passing game. The Pats gameplan so drastically that sometimes they even throw out the running game completely.
I could also see the Pats not even attempting to get a serious ground game going. I doubt it, especially because teams have had some success running the ball against Seattle recently, but it’s possible.
Marshawn Lynch will get his 100 yards, but Bill Belichick will do everything in his power to play as aggressive as the Seahawks do on defense. His reputation as a defensive gameplanner is to take away that one great thing they do and make them beat you the other way.
Hopefully for Russell Wilson he’s up to the challenge.
Can Lynch still run through a loaded eight, and even nine man box?
The biggest reason I have the Pats winning by four, in a moderately low scoring game is because of those injuries to the Legion of Boom.
The LOB is their heart and soul. They will do everything they can to play like their normal hyped selves, but in the end I think Thomas’ injury especially will be too much to overcome as he is by far the most valuable player on that defense.
One hit on Gronkowski over the middle and Thomas could be done for.
Julian Edelman will capitalize on the injuries and have a fantastic game both on offense and on special teams. He will be the MVP.
Tom Brady, Bill Belihick and the New England Patriots will come away with their fourth Super Bowl as the Legion of Boom is just too banged up to duplicate the defense we saw last year against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.
Next: Ranking all 48 Super Bowls
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