The opportunity cost of Robert Griffin III
By Robert Judin
Drafting RG3 is full of what-ifs for the Washington Redskins.
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For 17 weeks, the NFL delivers 256 regular-season games — all with the purpose of leading up to an even more exciting postseason. Sure, the Super Bowl is the biggest sporting event in the world, but the games don’t stop there for the league.
As soon as the season is over, another game begins: the NFL Draft.
It’s three days of gluing your eyes to Twitter, scanning mock drafts from the “experts” and their mothers, and catching up on the message boards to discover which players your favorite team is targeting.
What most people don’t realize, though, is the draft is a completely different beast. You cannot approach the draft with the same mindset that you would the season. It’s all about draft stock. A team could believe a quarterback could be the cornerstone of the franchise, but maybe he’s only projected to go in the second round. Does that team wait until the second round to draft him or draft him in the first round to make sure he doesn’t fall to someone else?
The draft is a labyrinth. The key to securing a successful draft is how you navigate the trade market. Before any general manager locks in a trade with another team, he has to feel confident he knows what — or rather who — he’s giving up.
Every asset acquired has an opportunity cost.
The Washington Redskins found that out the hard way when they selected Robert Griffin III from Baylor with the second-overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.
It was a headline story. The Redskins acquired the second-overall pick with the intention to draft RG3, but the price was very, very steep. Washington sent four draft picks to the St. Louis Rams, but three of them were first-round picks. All the Redskins saw was the value of RG3 and not the value of the picks they were giving up.
RG3 had an amazing rookie year, but as we all know, he’s gone through many injuries and clashed with both Mike Shanahan and Jay Gruden.
In three seasons, he’s played in 37 games and lost the starting job to Kirk Cousins this year. He’s thrown 40 touchdowns with 23 interceptions and 8,097 passing yards, but the real issue has been his inability to stay healthy.
It’s pretty clear what the Redskins ended up with: a hobbled quarterback with a big contract. But what did the Rams end up doing with their assets?
Well, after locking in the deal with Washington, the Rams spun those assets into more assets. St. Louis took the “scared money won’t make money” approach, and it worked.
The Rams traded the sixth-overall pick to the Dallas Cowboys, who ended up taking Morris Claiborne. Claiborne has been plagued by injuries as well, but the Rams don’t have to worry about that because they spun that pick into the No. 14 overall pick and the No. 45 overall pick.
With No. 14, the Rams drafted Michael Brockers, who has proven to be a very valuable defensive tackle. He’s only missed three games in his four-year career and has 12.5 sacks, but more importantly, he’s been vital to the Rams’ run defense.
St. Louis ended up trading the No. 45 overall pick to the Chicago Bears for running back Isaiah Pead and offensive tackle Rokevious Watkins. And the Bears turned that pick into Alshon Jeffery. Okay, so that trade kind of backfired on St. Louis.
But the Rams held onto the No. 39 overall pick they got from Washington and turned that into cornerback Janoris Jenkins. Jenkins has been a staple in the Rams’ secondary and has nine interceptions through his first 50 games.
The Rams ended up trading the No. 22 overall pick in 2013 (cornerback Desmond Trufant), that they got from Washington obviously, to the Atlanta Falcons. St. Louis also sent a seventh-round pick in 2015 in exchange for the No. 30 pick, the No. 92 pick and the N0. 198 pick in 2013. With the first two, St. Louis drafted linebacker Alec Ogletree and wide receiver Stedman Bailey. Ogletree has racked up 206 tackles and only missed one game for the Rams while Bailey only has two receiving touchdowns in his career.
St. Louis sent the No. 198 pick and the No. 184 pick to the Houston Texans for a fifth-round pick that turned into running back Zac Stacy — now with the New York Jets. Stacy rushed for eight touchdowns and 1,266 yards in 27 games for the Rams.
The Redskins also sent their first-round pick in 2014 to St. Louis, and the Rams turned that into offensive tackle Greg Robinson, who will be a vital part of their offensive line for a long time.
RG3’s contract may end after next season, but he’s owed just more than $16 million in 2016. That’s a lot of money to pay a quarterback who isn’t playing for you. Instead, Cousins, whom the Redskins drafted in the fourth round of that same 2012 draft, is in control of the starting job. But he’s a free agent after this season, and the Redskins may be force to turn to RG3 anyway.
If the Redskins thought better of themselves before signing on the dotted line to acquire that second-overall pick, their roster would have looked dramatically different.
They could have still drafted Cousins to be their starting quarterback in the fourth round, but they could have added Jenkins and Ogletree to their defense. Robinson could have helped secure the offensive line. Maybe Bailey finds a bigger role and more chemistry working with Cousins. Washington could have held onto the pick that turned into Trufant and paired him with Jenkins.
Oh, and the Redskins could have plugged Brockers in at defensive tackle and given Cousins a big-time target like Jeffery.
Sure, it’s a game of “what if,” and plenty of people hate to play. But when you’re drafting for an NFL franchise, the “what if” game can make or break you.
Having a high draft pick isn’t technically the best scenario. Some would argue that having a lot of draft picks is the way to go, but we see how the Redskins messed up that one.
You can argue how there’s no way to have known RG3 would turn out the way he did, but the possibility was always there.
The Seattle Seahawks drafted well by securing every spot on their team and then finding a quarterback in the third round. The New England Patriots already had a solid team and hit the lottery with a sixth-round pick from Michigan named Tom Brady.
The NFL Draft is basically the football version of the stock market. Sometimes you have to buy low and sell high, but you always have to keep an eye out on projections and estimated value.
Washington’s big-eyed acquisition of RG3 was nothing more than a bad investment. The Redskins might as well have invested in Enron. Either way, the opportunity cost was wins and respect.