Portland Trail Blazers offseason review

As the NBA offseason plows ahead we’re taking some time to pause and assess the work each team is doing, building for the present and future. Today, we’re looking at the Portland Trail Blazers.

The Portland Trail Blazers were one of the league’s biggest surprises last season, losing four starters from the previous season and still bouncing back to win 44 games and make the playoffs. What do the next steps look like for a young team on the rise?

Inputs: Jake Layman (SF, NBA Draft pick No. 47); Festus Ezeli (C, signed for two years, $16 million); Evan Turner (SG, signed for four years, $70 million); Jake Layman (SG, signed for three years, $18 million); Tim Quarterman (SG, signed for two years, partially guaranteed)

Outputs: Brian Roberts (PG, signed with the Charlotte Hornets); Chris Kaman (C, unsigned); Gerald Henderson (SG, signed with the Philadelphia 76ers); Cliff Alexander (SF, unsigned)

Retained: CJ McCollum (SG, signed a four-year, $106 million extension); Allen Crabbe (SG, signed for four years, $74 million); Maurice Harkless (SF, signed for four years, $40 million); Meyers Leonard (C, signed for four years, $41 million)

Pending:  None

Portland’s front office must have felt really confident about last year’s roster, because they spent a lot of money to keep it together. Even in the context of the new larger salary cap, the price they paid for Allen Crabbe, Maurice Harkless, CJ McCollum, and Meyers Leonard is high (particularly when you stack those deals on top of each other). The Trail Blazers are young and have talent but the contracts they signed this season lock them in to a gamble on internal development to carry them to championship contention.

The Blazers really only brought in two outside players of significance; one makes total sense, the other is a strange fit. Festus Ezeli should be a great addition to the Blazers crowded frontcourt, bringing an interior defensive presence that was missing at times last season. On a per minute basis, he was the best rim protector in the league both this season and last, according to Nylon Calculus.

Evan Turner makes a little less sense. He’s not much of a shooter and operates primarily with the ball in his hands, which creates a lot of overlap with Damian Lillard and McCollum. Given how much the Blazers also paid to hold onto Crabbe and Harkless, they are now highly invested in a wing rotation that may not be that much better than average.

3 Big Questions

To really dig deep on Portland’s offseason, I’m leaning on friends with some Trail Blazers expertise. Steven Dewald (@Stevie_D85) is co-editor of FanSided’s Rip City Project. Evans Clinchy (@EvansClinchy) and Dane Carbaugh (@DaneCarbaugh) are contributors to SBNation’s Blazer’s Edge.

Steve and Evans were nice enough to help out by answering three big questions about Portland’s offseason.

Given how much he needs the ball in his hands, what is the plan for Evan Turner?

Evans Clinchy: That… is a really good question. I wish I had a clear answer. It’s definitely true that Turner had a distinct style in Boston, playing on the ball a great deal as a playmaking point forward. It’s hard to imagine him playing that role much in Portland, where Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum already dominate the ball. He may have to reinvent himself a little bit.

It’s been rumored that Turner is expected to start at the small forward spot. I have my doubts, about both whether this will really happen and how long it will last if it does. But if Turner is used at the three, I wonder if maybe he can thrive in a role similar to that Moe Harkless — a wing guy who makes himself useful off the ball by cutting, getting open on the wing and providing spacing not as a shooter, but as a threat to slash to the basket. He can be useful in that capacity, I think.

Turner is interesting because he’s a versatile player. He was definitely pigeonholed as a playmaker on Brad Stevens’ Celtics, but maybe he doesn’t have to be that guy forever. We shall see.

Steven Dewald: How often does Shaun Livingston need the ball in his hands with the Warriors? That is the question here, as Turner could find himself in a similar role to that of the rangy Golden State guard.

Both Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum have proven that they can maintain their effectiveness while playing off of the ball. Putting the ball in Turner’s hands for long stretches won’t hurt the first unit. With that being said, don’t be surprised if Turner is the first person subbed out of the starting lineup after tip-off. His ability to run the point will be utilized heavily with the second unit. It will be on his shoulders to get the ball to the arsenal of talented players on the bench (Allen Crabbe, Meyers Leonard, Maurice Harkless, and Festus Ezeli).

Turner has done a solid job over the last few seasons of learning how to play within himself. If he tries to reinvent himself as corner three point shooter he could get the hook early on in the season. He will need to focus on relieving pressure off of Lillard and McCollum while finding his offense in effective ways. Turner has added a quality post-up game (for a guard) to his repertoire, so expect to see him abuse smaller defenders.

He might suit up with the starters, but his most important role will likely arise with his minutes in the second unit. If the Trail Blazers return to the playoffs, expect him to be a major help to the starting backcourt. The Clippers effectively stifled Portland’s guard tandem for long stretches, putting a player like Turner in the lineup will allow for him to operate freely off of the ball.

Dane Carbaugh: At Evan Turner’s press conference Neil Olshey was adamant that they were going to use Turner as a ball handler to help spell Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. That could mean him moving from the starting small forward to the point guard spot with Allen Crabbe as the first sub off the bench. Or, it could mean Crabbe starts and Turner is the first off the bench.

In either case, Olshey made it clear that he saw the kind of high-pressure blitzing teams did to Lillard and McCollum last year, and that he wanted someone who could relieve that pressure.

For me, the real question isn’t whether Turner starts or not, it’s where McCollum and Lillard move in the lineup accordingly. The two young stars flourish with the ball in their hands, and while they can play well off-ball, I’m not sure how much we see Turner with both Lillard and McCollum on the floor.

This season, Meyers Leonard will be                           .

Evans Clinchy: Hard-pressed to find minutes, first of all.

I like Meyers. I like him a lot, really. He’s a unique player, even in the modern NBA — a guy who can do a respectable job defensively against traditional centers but also step outside and shoot 40 percent from three. I don’t think he’s a power forward in this league — I think he’s a new breed of center, and he can be really special.

Having said that, the Blazers still have Mason Plumlee as their incumbent starter in the middle, and they just threw $7 million a year at Festus Ezeli, who will presumably see a good deal of time at the five as well. What does this mean for Meyers? I wish I knew. I hope it doesn’t mean he’s relegated to the bench. I also hope it doesn’t mean he’s stuck playing power forward, where I don’t think his spacing is as valuable. The center logjam is tricky, and I don’t know what the solution is.

Steven Dewald: Meyers Leonard will be used to stretch the floor in key situations.

The Trail Blazers have a ton of depth in the post, but few players can space the floor like Leonard can. Neil Olshey made a firm commitment to his future in Portland (four-years, $40 million), so expect for his continued development to be a priority for Terry Stotts.

The majority of Portland’s wings and guards are able to score effectively when they get to the basket, which puts the burden on the big guys to open the lanes. Lillard and McCollum are at their best when they have several options at their disposal. Pick-and-rolls with Leonard will give the Trail Blazers’ guards several options to exploit the defense.

The biggest obstacle standing in front of Leonard is his injury rehab. It appears that he will miss nearly all of Portland’s preseason, which could put him at a major disadvantage in the minutes battle.

Dane Carbaugh: Given more time.

Leonard has been a special part of Neil Olshey’s draft considerations, and he’s attached to him. Leonard is now locked down on a four-year, $41 million contract in Portland. With the glut of players likely to start but be gone next year (Mason Plumlee) and new players brought in to help plug the gaps (Festus Ezeli) I would say it’s likely Leonard is used situationally.

Stotts likes to stick to a rotation, like any other coach, but he’s got so much talent and interchangeability — not to mention deficiencies — that I would think we see Leonard in bench rotation set for certain games.

I think it’s likely we see him for 15 minutes in certain games and five in others. Which is fine, he still has a lot to learn and he’s Olshey’s long-term prospect down low. For now, learning and getting back to contributing seems like what they want for him.

How important is Festus Ezeli to Portland’s aspirations of being an above-average defense?

Evans Clinchy: That kinda depends on how many minutes he plays, doesn’t it? Ezeli is a much better defensive center than Plumlee; there’s little doubt about that. But he doesn’t have the ability as a high-post playmaker on the offensive end that Plumlee does, so I can definitely see Terry Stotts putting together some sort of platoon system that allows him to go offense/defense with the two guys. But then you have to factor in some minutes for Leonard at the center spot as well (at least I hope you do), and the math starts to get fuzzy. What if Ezeli only ends up playing, say, 20 minutes a night?

I expect the Blazers to be a pretty solid defensive team during those 20 minutes, as Ezeli is a strong rim protector who can clean up the messes that Lillard and McCollum leave behind. The other 28, though, will be a mixed bag. There’s only so much impact Ezeli can have in a limited role.

Steven Dewald: Ezeli will finally provide the Trail Blazers with the rim protector they’ve coveted for more than decade. The key will be keeping the oft-injured big man on the court. Injuries aside, procuring guaranteed playing time will be no easy path. Ed Davis and Mason Plumlee won’t be push-overs when it comes to competition in training camp.

Finding an anchor for the defense when Lillard and McCollum are on the the court will remain important, so expect Ezeli to spend the majority of his time with the starting backcourt. His abysmal free throw shooting (53 percent in 2015-16) will keep him off the court when the pressure is on, which should help him preserve his energy.

Fixing Portland’s defense won’t be fixed by one player, but adding Ezeli to the mix certainly won’t hurt.

Dane Carbaugh: Even when Portland added Robin Lopez to the mix in 2013-14, it took another season for the Blazers to crack the Top 10 in defensive rating. I think we will still see a jump in overall defensive performance, but mostly because they were bottom-third last year.

That said, a jump to being perfectly average would be acceptable in Year 1, as Portland had an elite scoring team in 2016.

Ezeli doesn’t solve all their problems. As Evans said, Portland will still be forced to play Mason Plumlee big minutes, who is a defensive liability. Finding the right mix between them — and basically every other new player on the roster — will be Terry Stotts’ big task this year.

That being said, Ezeli brings a lot to the table and on paper. Overall, I still think it’s about incorporating all the new players, getting Noah Vonleh and Meyers Leonard up to speed, and improving the tendencies of Lillard and McCollum.

Pull-ups on pull-ups on pull-ups

With CJ McCollum’s breakout last season, the Portland Trail Blazers offense became very much about the jump-shooting ability of him and Damian Lillard, particularly their ability to hit jumpers off the dribble. Those two players finished fifth and sixth, respectively, in pull-up jumpers attempted last season. That weapon should become even more central to the Blazers offense this season with the addition of Evan Turner.

Turner finished 41st in the league in total pull-up jumpers attempted last season, although he played fewer minutes because of his reserve role. Per 36 minutes his pull-ups attempted (5.5), isn’t that far behind McCollum (8.7) and Lillard (9.0). The Blazers as a team ranked third in the league in total pull-up jumpers attempted last season. If you just combine the totals of McCollum, Lillard, and Turner, they would have ranked 19th among all teams last season.

Those three players totaled 1688 pull-up jumpshot attempts last season. Stretched over 82 games, that works out to an average of over 20 attempts per game. The league average effective field goal percentage on pull-ups last season was 41.0 percent, a mark that both McCollum (49.9) and Lillard (45.5) were well above. Turner, however, was below the league average at 39.3 percent, primarily because all but 13 of his 340 pull-up jumpers were two-pointers.

For McCollum and Lillard, the pull-up is a tool for keeping the defense off-balance and an relatively efficient means of scoring. I would wager that most teams are more than happy with Turner shooting off the dribble and his willingness to oblige could tilt the Blazers’ offense towards inefficiency.