Buccaneers season preview 2016: Predictions and analysis

It’s Year 2 of the Jameis Winston experience of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and that should be more than enough to keep the blackouts to a minimum. In his rookie campaign, Winston was erratic but showed immense talent, earning a Pro Bowl berth as an alternate.

Winston comes into his second season at the helm with a new head coach. Despite seeing the team go from 2-14 to 6-10, Lovie Smith was fired and replaced by former offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. Koetter, 57, has been waiting for his first head-coaching gig and now has it, getting a chance to prove he is more than a mere assistant.

Under Koetter, Tampa Bay will be utilizing a vertical passing attack that fits the players at hand. The Buccaneers have a pair of terrific wideouts in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, giving Winston two downfield weapons. Last year, Evans continued to become one of the best players in the league, hauling in 74 passes for 1,206 yards. However, Evans’ next step needs to be getting into the end zone more consistently, having only netted three in 2015.

In addition to the passing game, Koetter has to rely on his veteran running back, Doug Martin. Martin had a renaissance last season after dealing with injuries, rushing for 1,402 yards on 4.9 yards per carry. Martin is also a weapon to catch passes out of the backfield, catching 33 passes a year ago. With Martin now locked up long term, the Buccaneers have a group that should be top-10 offensively on a yearly basis.

The offensive line also has some nice pieces. Left tackle Donovan Smith had a productive rookie season and while he has limitations in his athleticism, Smith can be a solid blindside blocker. The interior still needs help, though, with J.R. Sweezy likely to be an offseason overpay at guard. Tampa Bay needs to continue to look for upgrades on the interior.

The main issue for Tampa Bay is the defense. The Buccaneers were wise to take Vernon Hargreaves III with their first-round selection, bolstering the secondary. unfortunately, the group still needs more help in a division loaded with quality receivers. The safeties are even worse off, with retread Chris Conte leading the way.

If the defense has any chance of success, the front seven has to dominate. Gerald McCoy is the best defensive tackle in football this side of Aaron Donald, while Lavonte David is a highly-underrated outside linebacker. The rotation along the line should be formidable as well with Robert Ayers, Jacquies Smith and rookie Noah Spence getting after the quarterback.

The Buccaneers are likely a year away from legitimately competing for a playoff berth. If Koetter proves to be the right fit in his new role, this team is moving in the right direction. Winston is clearly a franchise quarterback and the pieces are around him to enjoy a prolific offense for years to come. General manager Jason Licht will need to spend future cap space and draft picks on the defense, bringing that unit up to speed.

While 2016 won’t result in a Super Bowl run for Tampa Bay, it should be enjoyable watching this young team take the next step.

Schedule

Week 1 -at Atlanta Falcons
Week 2 – at Arizona Cardinals
Week 3 – Los Angeles Rams
Week 4 – Denver Broncos
Week 5 – at Carolina Panthers
Week 6 – BYE
Week 7 – at San Francisco 49ers
Week 8 – Oakland Raiders
Week 9 – Atlanta Falcons (Thurs.)
Week 10 – Chicago Bears
Week 11 – at Kansas City Chiefs
Week 12 – Seattle Seahawks
Week 13 – at San Diego Chargers
Week 14 – New Orleans Saints
Week 15 – at Dallas Cowboys
Week 16 – at New Orleans Saints
Week 17 – Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay will be challenged right around its bye week. The Broncos are coming to town in Week 4 and a trip to face Cam Newton is next. After the week off, Tampa Bay has to fly across the country before coming home to take on the Raiders.

The end of the schedule is daunting. Kansas City will host the young Buccaneers in Week 11 before Tampa Bay returns to Raymond James Stadium for a date with the Seahawks. Afterwards, the Buccaneers get another west coast trip to San Diego.

Draft class

Round 1 (11) – Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida
Round 2 (39) – Noah Spence, OLB, Eastern Kentucky
Round 2 (59) – Roberto Aguayo, K, Florida State
Round 4 (108) – Ryan Smith, CB, North Carolina Central
Round 5 (148) – Caleb Benenoch, OT, UCLA
Round 6 (183) – Devante Bond, OLB, Oklahoma
Round 6 (197) – Dan Vitale, FB, Northwestern

Outside of Hargreaves, this is a class that has serious question marks. Hargreaves was a clear choice in the first round, staying in the state of Florida to play on the outside along with Alterraun Verner and Johnathan Banks.

However, the rest of this group is underwhelming. Spencer has a world of talent but off-the-field concerns make you wonder about his reliability. Aguayo is an excellent kicker, but trading up to draft him in the second round borders on outrageous.

Offseason moves

Acquired

Robert Ayers, DE (3 years, $21 million)
J.R. Sweezy, OG (5 years, $32.5 million)

Lost

None

X-Factor

Can Doug Martin stay healthy? When on the field, Martin has proven to be one of the game’s best, gaining over 1,400 rushing yards twice in his four-year career. However, over 2013-14, Martin played a grand total of 17 games and barely rushed for 900 combined yards.

If the muscle hamster stays on the field, the Buccaneers have a nice group of triplets with Evans and Winston poised to make sweet music. Without the 27-year-old, opponents can gear up to stop the pass.

Bottom Line

The Buccaneers are clearly trending up. If Tampa Bay can figure out how to play defense consistently and get a pass rush from someone other than McCoy, this could be a sleeper team in the NFC.

Another concern, though, is the turnover at head coach. Koetter has been a very god offensive coordinator but has not been the top dog before. Can he step into Smith’s shoes and lead the Buccaneers to nine or 10 wins?