Buccaneers at Falcons: Game preview and prediction

Nov 1, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) carries the ball as Atlanta Falcons free safety Ricardo Allen (37) tackles in the third quarter at the Georgia Dome. The Buccaneers won 23-20 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 1, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) carries the ball as Atlanta Falcons free safety Ricardo Allen (37) tackles in the third quarter at the Georgia Dome. The Buccaneers won 23-20 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Atlanta Falcons will host their NFC South division rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers for an exciting Week 1 matchup in the Georgia Dome.

The Atlanta Falcons will play their final home opener at the Georgia Dome on Sunday, September 11th when they host an NFC South division rival in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a 1:00 PM ET kickoff.

Atlanta and Tampa Bay enter the 2016 NFL season as legitimate NFC Wild Card contenders. Both teams benefit considerably from the Teddy Bridgewater injury in Minnesota. The Falcons look to build on an 8-8 2015 season under second-year head coach Dan Quinn. Dirk Koetter takes over the ship in Tampa Bay for a Buccaneers team that went 6-10 under Lovie Smith last fall.

Tampa Bay swept Atlanta in 2015, as the Falcons struggled in NFC South play (1-5). Divisional play is key for either club to earn an NFC Wild Card spot. It’s too early to think either team can eclipse the Carolina Panthers in the NFC South.

The Falcons should be able to run the football well in Kyle Shanahan’s zone blocking scheme. Atlanta has a Pro Bowler at tailback in Devonta Freeman and a top five offensive line in the game. While Julio Jones is elite at wide receiver, quarterback Matt Ryan is coming off a mediocre 2015 campaign where he didn’t full grasp Shanahan’s West Coast offense.

Defensively, Atlanta has a great cornerback in Desmond Trufant and not much else. Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett could be a special player, but the Falcons don’t have elite personnel on that side of the football. That being said, they are well coached by Quinn and defensive coordinator Richard Smith. Their pass rush is still atrocious and this is to the advantage of Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston.

Winston should thrive in Koetter’s Air Coryell in 2016. Yes, he has to get better at making second and third reads, but Winston is very much what Tampa Bay needs from a franchise quarterback. He should have a balanced offense with Doug Martin at running back and Mike Evans at wide receiver.

Tampa Bay has two elite defensive players in defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and linebacker Lavonte David. Vernon Hargreaves, III looks to be a star in the making at cornerback, but Tampa Bay hasn’t been disciplined on defense for years. New defensive coordinator Mike Smith is at his best when he gets great play from his front seven. Smith is a great players’ coach, but not the best in-game tactician.

This rivalry intensifies in 2016 with former Falcons coaches Koetter and Smith now running the show in Tampa Bay. Expect this game to be decided by only one score. It’s going to come down to the turnover margin and special teams play.

Next: 2016 NFL season: Record predictions for all 32 teams

Atlanta won’t be as reckless with the football as it was last season. Matt Bryant is a proven commodity at kicker for the Falcons. Rookie kicker Roberto Aguayo has been a head case this preseason for the Buccaneers. The Falcons will win a close, low-scoring game against Tampa Bay to move to 1-0 on the year.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons 24, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20