Bengals at Steelers: Game preview, odds, prediction

The Cincinnati Bengals will be in the mood for revenge when they face the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field in Week 2 of the 2016 NFL season.

The Cincinnati Bengals will be eager this weekend to avenge the Wild Card loss suffered at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers in last season’s AFC playoffs. It won’t be easy with the Black and Gold enjoying homefield advantage and coming off a very impressive road win over the Washington Redskins.

Of course, the Bengals enjoyed their own impressive win in Week 1. They outlasted the New York Jets on the road to win 23-22.

Much of their success was due to the performance of A.J. Green. The marquee wide receiver tormented Jets cover man Darrelle Revis. Green had 12 catches for 180 yards and a touchdown, but was also aided by a smart game plan that gave him room to run.

Specifically, the Bengals utilized a steady diet of quick-hit short throws to instantly get the ball into Green’s hands. One great example of the strategy in practice came on a 1st-and-10 play in the first quarter.

The Bengals lined up with only three down offensive linemen. Cincy had split their tackles out on either side of the formation, and stacked them both with a tight end.

Green was aligned behind left tackle Andrew Whitworth and tight end Ryan Hewitt. Dalton wasted no time flipping the ball Green’s way, and he ran behind the two-man blocking convoy to move the chains and then some.

This graphic from Next Gen Stats, relayed by the NFL‘s official site, detailed where Green caught most of his passes:

Similar use of Green might be in order for Week 2, especially if the Steelers employ a defense like the one they ran in Washington.

Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin went Tampa 2 against the Redskins. He kept his safeties deep and consistently dropped seven or eight men into zone coverage. These deep shells took the big play away from Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins, and challenged him to be patient. Those who caught the short passes Cousins was forced to throw were usually hit immediately by quick-reacting zone defenders.

But those defenders may not get near Bengals receivers if they find O-linemen out in space ready to block downfield.

Odds

Line: PITT (-3)

Over/Under: 47.5

Jeremy Hill is one more reason why Tomlin’s Tampa 2 might not work as effectively in Week 2. The Bengals third-year running back was held to just 31 yards by the Jets’ stingy D-line. But he still managed to find the end zone on a 12-yard scamper.

Hill is a tough grinder between the tackles, one who can thrive against defenses that don’t load the box with a safety. His presence means the Steelers ought to return to their zone-blitzing routes, given how often they’ve frustrated Dalton with pressure in the past.

Speaking of the running game, Pittsburgh boasts a pretty effective one of its own. The veteran legs of 33-year-old DeAngelo Williams have taken the Steelers back to their power football roots. Williams battered Washington en route to 143 yards and a pair of touchdowns on Monday night. He may be in the winter of his career, but the ex-Carolina Panthers workhorse has lost none of his instinct for the tough yards.

With Williams in the groove, the Steelers can own the clock and wear a defense out. That’s what they did to the Redskins, per Mike Jones of the Washington Post:

The Bengals D’ is tougher up front than last season’s NFC East champs. But Williams will still be a force behind a downright nasty Steelers O-line.

It always seems to be close when the Bengals visit the Steel City. With both teams impressing in Week 1, expect another close call.

The Steelers are the safe pick to win given how their defense can harass Dalton. Williams’ running, along with the connection between quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and wideout Antonio Brown, Jerry Rice for the modern era, will produce enough points for the win.

Pick: Steelers 20, Bengals 13