Jets at Steelers: Game preview, odds, prediction

Putting 43 points on the Kansas City Chiefs gives the Pittsburgh Steelers a ton of confidence ahead of hosting the New York Jets in Week 5.

Like the Chiefs, the Jets boast a supposed tough defense, certainly one with ample talent along the front seven. But those talented bodies needn’t worry the Steelers, not after the way they dominated KC along the ground and through the air.

An offensive masterclass called by coordinator Todd Haley and executed by quarterback Ben Roethlisberger led to a host of big plays. Haley spread the field with multiple receivers and exploited man coverage, the kind of man coverage the Jets play.

It also helped to have both DeAngelo Williams and Le’Veon Bell in the backfield for the first time this season. The latter tallied 178 all-purpose yards in his first game back from suspension. More important, Bell’s dual-threat skills added a layer of unpredictability to an already loaded offense.

Bell’s return is yet more bad news for increasingly beleaguered Jets head coach Todd Bowles. His team is 1-3, but the manner of the defeats have been alarming. Specifically, Bowles’ defense is struggling mightily, ranking 16th in the league.

It’s not easy explaining such a low ranking after Bowles established a reputation as one of the brightest defensive minds in the NFL as coordinator for the Arizona Cardinals. He brought his acumen to a Jets unit brimming with playmakers up front, particularly versatile tackle Sheldon Richardson and all-world end Muhammad Wilkerson.

A major problem has been an inability to make create negative plays for an offense. It’s shown up most in an anaemic pass defense, per ESPN’s Rich Cimini:

"They don’t force many fumbles (only two) and don’t get their hands on many balls. Consider: They have recorded a league-low three passes defensed out of 154 attempts, which is almost unfathomable."

Problems up front have been as much to blame as issues in the secondary, where the decline of key figures such as cornerback Darrelle Revis has also hampered Bowles.

Odds

Line: PIT (-7)

Over/Under: 48.5

Still, the main weakness has been an inconsistency getting to the quarterback. The Jets may have logged 11 sacks through three games, but they’ve been sporadic crushing the pocket. They sacked Andy Dalton seven times against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1, but barely laid a glove on Tyrod Taylor and the Buffalo Bills in Week 2.

The inconsistency is rooted in a key, and damaging, change of philosophy from Bowles. He was once the most blitz-happy play-caller in football, but now he trusts his front four to get home. No doubt he’s been wowed by the ability of a group featuring Richardson, Wilkerson and 2015 sixth-overall pick Leonard Williams.

When it works, the Jets are pass masters at executing stunts and games up front, as this video analysis from Scout.com’s Jon Ledyard, via Inside the Pylon, shows:

But as effective as his D-line can be, Bowles ought to go back to his blitzing roots at Heinz Field. He’s facing a Steelers O’ that loves to spread the formation by emptying the backfield.

Empty sets naturally create a numbers advantage for blitzing defenses, where pressure targets just five blockers. Bowles needs to blitz the edges to take Roethlisberger out of his rhythm.

The problem with facing the Steelers is how easily they can flip the script and still move the chains. Try and rush the edges and they’ll spring Bell on a trap play. Blitz the middle and they’ll send him on a sweep.

Pittsburgh’s dancing dynamo is lethal lugging the rock on football’s money down, as NFL Fantasy writer Matt Franciscovich noted:

If Bowles is unsure about getting more aggressive defensively, he should take his cue from Steelers defensive coordinator Kevin Butler. The Pittsburgh D’ looked more like its old self against the Chiefs in Week 4 after Butler wasn’t afraid to dial up pressure from a myriad of looks.

He sent linebackers from everywhere, shifting the moving pieces around to disguise coverage and bamboozle blocking schemes.

All of those things can lead to another nightmare day for Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, he of the nine interceptions in his last two starts. Fitz is forcing the issue, but he’s also struggling to read zone droppers, something the Steelers can exploit.

Next: NFL power rankings, Week 5: Panthers, Cardinals tumble

Butler and head coach Mike Tomlin love to crowd the middle zones and take away the deep ball to force quarterbacks into losing their patience and chancing risky outside throws.

A key figure in the approach is ultra-athletic middle linebacker Ryan Shazier. He missed the win over the Chiefs, but could return for Week 5, according to Tomlin, per Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:

If Shazier can’t go, the Steelers are still well-stocked. Butler and Tomlin will have been delighted with the performance of Vince Williams last week. The deputy ‘backer recorded 16 combined tackles, including 14 solo, and a sack against the Chiefs. Williams’ partnership with the brilliant Lawrence Timmons forms the cornerstone of this defense.

Pick: Steelers 21, Jets 16