Best bets: The Champions League edition
By Dan Voicescu
For all the amateur and novice bettors, below are the plays that offer the most value in terms of risk versus reward in this week’s Champions League matches.
Please note: We are displaying the odds in American format, where a negative line refers to the amount wagered in order to win $100 (ex. -200 means you need to place a $200 bet to win $100; this is the equivalent of a 1.5 to 1 odds. Alternatively a +200 bet on an underdog means you stand to gain $200 if you place a $100 bet.)
1. Besiktas vs. Napoli. Over/Under Goals 2.5 – OVER (-110). In their last match, these two teams combined for five goals, with Besiktas coming away with a 3-2 win on the road. Napoli still leads the group, but both teams will be looking for the win, as Benfica has the chance to go top with a win at home against last place Dynamo Kiev. I don’t expect this game to be a cagey affair as both teams will look to come away with all the points and will be looking to attack with numbers and create chances. Besiktas came away with a surprising away win in Naples, and in the return leg in Istanbul will be bolstered by a raucous home crowd in their quest for a win. Napoli have enough firepower upfront, and should be able to create enough chances on the counterattack with the likes of Dries Mertens, Lorenzo Insigne and Jose Maria Callejon. Take the over on goals total in this one.
2. Tottenham vs. Bayer Leverkusen. Tottenham to win (-105)
These two teams tied in their last match in Leverkusen two weeks ago. Tottenham haven’t been in great form lately, going winless in their last five games. However, I believe this is where they turn things around. Spurs had this game circled on their calendar, as the winner will take a decisive step toward earning a top two finish in the group. Leverkusen have not had a great season, currently laying in 10th place in the Bundesliga and having tied all three Champions League matches so far. On paper Tottenham has a more complete, deeper and more talented roster, with a higher level of success this season, and on the verge of getting their star striker, Harry Kane, back from injury.
The line is too attractive to pass here, as you are getting even money for a home win in a match where the hosts have a had a better 2016-17 campaign both domestically and on the European front. Take Spurs to win.
3. Accumulator play: PSV Eindhoven vs. Bayern Munich. (Bayern to win -245) with Ludogorets -vs. Arsenal (Arsenal to win -275).
This is an accumulator play, meaning you are playing at least two sides and getting exponentially better odds. In this case I’m taking two favorites to win (Arsenal and Bayern Munich) in order to get even money (-110) on the bet.
Arsenal had their way with Ludogorets in their last Champions League game, coming away with an emphatic 6-0 win. Even if Arsene Wenger decides to rotate some players out of the starting lineup in order to rest them ahead of their North London Derby versus Tottenham on Sunday, the difference in talent will be too significant for Ludogorets to overcome. There is nothing making me wary of a Arsenal away win in this game.
In the other game of the accumulator bet, I like Bayern on the road at PSV Eindhoven. PSV have had a miserable season, marred by many injuries. Bayern seems to have found their stride under Carlo Ancelotti and should continue their winning ways in this one. Injuries to key personnel will be too much to overcome for PSV.
Good luck!