Dolphins at Jets: Game preview, odds, and prediction
By Matt Kerns
Both teams have won two in a row coming into Week 9, so who will prevail as the New York Jets head to South Beach to take on the Miami Dolphins.
In recent weeks, the Dolphins have relied heavily on their offensive line to lead a stout running game. Jay Ajayi rushed for over 200 yards against the Steelers and the Bills, but it’s highly unlikely he’ll do so against the New York Jets. In order to slow down Ajayi’s recent success, the Jets gap penetration and containment is huge.
Since center Mike Pouncey returned to Miami, the Dolphins have leaned more toward the run and alleviate Ryan Tannehill from taking control of the offense. In their last three games, the Dolphins have averaged 31.7 rushes on average per game. That’s tied for the fifth most in that span of games.
There’s no fooling anyone: The Jets know that the Dolphins want to run right at them. On the other hand, the Jets have done a fine job stopping the run this season with the exception in Week 6 against the Cardinals. This season, only 20.28% of the total yards the Jets have given up this season have come from the ground game, which is the leading figure in the NFL in that category.
Up front, the Jets certainly have the personnel to stop the run. Leonard Williams can line up in either a 0, 1, or 3 technique and rush the passer too. He has 16 run stuffs this year, which is tied for first among 3-4 defensive ends according to PFF. Ajayi leads the NFL in yards after contact as he averages 4.1 yards after being touched. A strong tackling unit up front for the Jets should limit what Ajayi can do on the ground.
Odds
Line: MIA -3.5
OVER/UNDER: 45
Ryan Tannehill will more than likely have to take matters into his own hands on Sunday. But that’s not an entirely bad thing either. While the Jets have been great against the run, the secondary has been quite the opposite. Teams have had their way targeting Darrelle Revis, Marcus Williams and Buster Skrine, who’s struggled to adjust to outside compared to in the slot.
Revis allowed 10 receptions on 16 targets last week against the Browns. Tannehill won’t shy away from throwing his way or anybody else’s way against this Jets secondary and should be a sleeper for fantasy this week.
If Tannehill doesn’t turn the ball over and plays efficient football, I’ll take Miami. However, if he struggles because of a disappearing running game, the Jets will come out on top.
Prediction: New York 21, Miami 19