Two-time All-Star closer Greg Holland will return for the 2017 season after Tommy John surgery. Which teams should consider taking a flier on him?
Greg Holland is slated to return to the big leagues in 2017 after a year away to rehab from Tommy John surgery. With the Kansas City Royals, Holland was an All-Star in 2013 and 2014. From 2011 to 2014, the right-hander saved 113 games with an eye-popping 12.6 strikeouts per nine.
Holland, now 31 years old, has not thrown a pitch in the major leagues since September 18, 2015. Prior to being shut down, it had become evident that Holland was not himself. His ERA peaked at 3.92 three weeks before his final pitch, and he had seen his strikeout rate tumble all the way down to 9.9. With the emergence of Wade Davis as an elite closer, the Royals felt confident enough to move on from Holland completely. It is now up to the former Cy Young candidate to re-establish himself in the big leagues, and he is comfortable pitching in a non-closing role.
At his best, Holland relied on his four-seam fastball in the mid-90s and his slider. The slider was Holland’s best pitch, with opponents batting just .130 against the pitch in his career. According to the pitch-tracking site, Brooks Baseball, over 300 of Holland’s 430 career strikeouts have come on the slider. How his elbow holds up to the rigors of throwing a high percentage of sliders will make or break Holland’s return to the big leagues.
The right-hander recently held a workout to showcase his progress, and close 20 MLB teams were in attendance. As a cheaper alternative to Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon, a healthy market will develop for Holland. As with any pitcher, especially a reliever, coming off the ligament-replacement surgery, there is a level of risk that comes with signing Greg Holland. Here are the five teams who should consider taking the plunge and targeting HOlland as he returns to the big leagues.
5. Chicago Cubs
Coming off their first World Series title in 108 years, the Cubs are in need of a closer. Aroldis Chapman was a rental, and a reunion would come as a total shocker at this point. Kenley Jansen is also likely out of the price range for the Cubs. Mark Melancon may be in play, but other teams have a more pressing need at closer than the Cubs, and he should also clear the old record contract for a closer of $50 million.
The Cubs spent big last winter to sign Jason Heyward, John Lackey, and Ben Zobrist. A similar outpouring of cash this year is unlikely. That will leave the Cubs to fill out their bullpen with internal options and low-risk/high-reward free agents. On the internal side, Hector Rondon will return, and did a serviceable job closing before the Chapman trade. Carl Edwards should be able to handle more pressure in 2017, and Mike Montgomery and Pedro Strop are capable in the middle innings.
Holland is a great fit for the Cubs, a team that can afford to bring him along slowly, waiting for the postseason. Chicago should continue running roughshod over the National League in the regular season, and their bullpen will have a minimal impact on their chances of reaching the playoffs. It will be a different story once October rolls around, but by then, Holland should be fully ramped up to handle a heavy workload.
4. Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have already been linked to Holland after his showcase. Rob Bradford of WEEI described the team’s interest as “strong,” and it makes sense. Closer Craig Kimbrel is the only sure thing in the Boston bullpen for 2017.
While the Red Sox ultimately won the AL East in 2016, their leaky bullpen led to more than a few headaches. Boston relievers blew 18 saves on the year, and Kimbrel had the worst season of his career. Brad Ziegler was a steadying presence after being acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks, but is a free agent this winter. Koji Uehara is also a free agent, and may have played his last games with the Red Sox.
Boston needs all the help it can get passing the baton to Kimbrel. Their team ERA of 3.75 in the seventh inning or later ranked 15th in the league. Throw Holland into the mix, and it becomes much easier for the Red Sox to hold a lead and get the ball to their closer. The bullpen is the one glaring weakness on a very complete team. Boston’s overwhelming offensive talent and steady rotation mostly cover for the middling relievers. With some margin for error, Dave Dombrowski and the front office can take a big swing and sign a rebound candidate like Greg Holland.
3. Baltimore Orioles
If the bullpen is a concern for the Red Sox, it’s the complete opposite for the Orioles. Baltimore led the league with a 3.01 ERA after the seventh inning. Closer Zach Britton had arguably the greatest season ever for a reliever in terms of pure run suppression. Ahead of Britton, All-Star setup men Brad Brach and Darren O’Day return. Converted shortstop Mychal Givens throws 95 mph from a sidearm slot.
The Orioles have an embarrassment of riches in their bullpen, but they can always use more help. The rotation is still a glaring weakness, with only three spots being filled by competent pitchers. Last offseason’s signing of Yovani Gallardo looks like an absolute disaster, and what Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley will bring in 2017 is anyone’s best guess. The staff’s ERA of 4.72 was 24th in the league and the worst of all the teams in the postseason. Adding to the bullpen may be the best course of action with a watered-down pitching market.
Dan Duquette has made a name for himself with reclamation projects since taking over in Baltimore. He has had at least one surprising success story each year, with Nelson Cruz and Mark Trumbo both leading the league in home runs, Nate McLouth coming out of nowhere to play an important role in 2012, Steve Pearce taking over for Chris Davis in 2014, and Miguel Gonzalez rising from the Mexican League. With an already strong bullpen, the Orioles have no reason not to sign Holland to serve as a swingman in the fifth and sixth innings. It would be a chance for him to revive his career in an Andrew MIller-esque role, pitching whenever his team needs him.
2. New York Yankees
The Yankees are emerging as one of the favorites to sign Aroldis Chapman, bringing him back to the Bronx after a few months away in Chicago. If they are able to pull that off, the Yankees will have played the market to perfection, managing to extract a potential All-Star at shortstop in Gleyber Torres from the Cubs while still locking down Chapman for their next round of World Series contention. A major tip of the cap to you, Brian Chapman.
If the Yankees are able to get past Chapman’s $90-100 million asking price, they will still need a seventh-inning guy ahead of Dellin Betances. For a team without a top-end starting rotation, it is nearly impossible to contend without a three-headed monster in the back end of the bullpen. Betances also struggled down the stretch after Chapman and Andrew Miller were traded away, and his workload needs to be monitored in order to keep him healthy into his thirties.
It will be up to the Yankees to determine exactly how far along their “retooling” process is. If Cashman and the front office feel the team’s flirtation with the playoffs in August and September was more a mirage than a preview of 2017, perhaps Holland does not fit in the plans. The reality of the situation is that the Yankees are still at least two years away from emerging as a true threat in the American League, but punting on the next two seasons will be difficult. Signing him now, and then dealing him for more prospects down the road would also fit well with the team’s current strategy.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Finally freed of Ryan Howard’s albatross of a contract and all ties to the 2008 World Series championship team, the Phillies have the potential to be one of the sleeping giants of MLB free agency this year. The rebuild is coming along nicely, and the team has one of the best TV deals in the league with plenty of cash flowing in. With several solid pieces to build around, the Phillies could begin winning as soon as 2017 if they play their cards right.
The big strength for the new-look Phillies is the starting rotation. Four young arms, Vince Velasquez, Aaron Nola, Alec Asher, and Jerad Eickhoff should be the envy of the league. Jeremy Hellickson took the team’s qualifying offer, and provides plenty of stability for the rotation. On offense, Odubel Herrera looks like Shane Victorino reincarnate, Maikel Franco is one of the more intriguing young power hitters in the game, and Cesar Hernandez is a dynamic player at second base. Top prospect J.P. Crawford’s time should finally come next season.
The Phillies are in a race with the Atlanta Braves to rebuild and get back to the top of the NL East. Philadelphia is further along right now, and has an edge when it comes to position players and offensive prospects. Staying ahead in that process is important, and the Phillies have already done most of the hard work by developing a pitching staff. As with most rebuilding teams, however, the bullpen is littered with replacement-level arms.
Holland would have a guaranteed chance to close in Philadelphia, and if that is a major draw for him, the Phillies make a good potential fit. Adding an elite closer would give the budding rotation even more confidence, and Holland could help the Phillies add a handful of wins a season. There is not much downside for Philadelphia if they are able to land Greg Holland. The Phillies offer a low-pressure landing spot as he looks to return from surgery. For a rebuilding team, adding a high-reward bounceback candidate like Holland is an easily-defensible move, and he becomes one more trade chip that can bring another elite prospect.