Chiefs at Falcons: Game preview, odds, prediction
By John Buhler
The Atlanta Falcons will host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon in Week 13. Here is a game preview, the betting odds and a final score prediction.
Week 13 of the 2016 NFL season has a ton of interesting games on tap. On of the better games going on in the 1:00 p.m. ET hour will be between the Kansas City Chiefs (8-3) taking on the Atlanta Falcons (7-4). Kickoff from the Georgia Dome in Atlanta on Sunday, Dec. 4 will be at 1:00 p.m. ET. CBS will have the telecast.
The Chiefs are 8-3 and are the No. 5 seed in the AFC Playoff picture entering Week 13. Kansas City trails the rival Oakland Raiders (9-2) by a game in the AFC West standings, but very much have the look of a playoff team entering December. The Chiefs play a tight, consistent brand of football that can win multiple playoff games in the AFC. Matchups will determine Kansas City’s fate this season: a Super Bowl LI contender to a first-round AFC Wild Card round exit.
The Falcons are 7-4 on the year and would be the No. 4 seed in the NFC Playoffs if the season ended today. Atlanta leads the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) by a game in the NFC South standings. The Falcons feel like the only team in the NFC not playing in the NFC East that can make it into the NFC Playoffs if they don’t win their division. Atlanta has a favorable final five games, but their toughest test left will be Kansas City at home on Sunday afternoon.
Odds
Point Spread: Atlanta -3.5
Moneylines: Atlanta -200, Kansas City +170
Over/Under: 49
According to OddsShark.com, the Falcons will be laying 3.5 points at home to the visiting Chiefs. The associated moneylines are Atlanta -200 and Kansas City +170. This game’s over/under comes in at a combined 49 points.
Here are the trends to know about the Chiefs: 1.) Kansas City is 6-1 straight up in its last seven games. 2.) The Chiefs have gone under in six of their last seven games. 3.) They’re 4-1 straight up and against the spread in their last five road games. 4.) Kansas City has gone under in four of its last six road games.
Here are the trends to know about the Falcons: 1.) Atlanta is 7-3 straight up and against the spread in its last 10 games. 2.) The Falcons have gone over in five of their last six games. 3.) They have gone 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games at home. 4.) Atlanta has gone over in all of their last five home games.
The point total will exceed 49 for so many reasons. This is a dome game where shootouts often happen. Atlanta has arguably the most explosive offense in the NFL, but a defense that will give up points late in game when it tires. Even an ultra-conservative offense like Kansas City’s will get in the end zone a few times on a defense like Atlanta’s.
The Chiefs are coming off an emotional overtime win on Sunday Night Football against the division rival Denver Broncos on the road. Could this be a letdown game for the Chiefs? Potentially, but do expect an overtime game on Sunday Night Football to have an adverse affect on the Chiefs run defense against the Falcons on Sunday.
Atlanta can run the ball more effectively with Tevin Coleman finally healthy to give Devonta Freeman the occasional spell in the backfield. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan won’t go off against an elite Chiefs secondary, and he might actually struggle at times against the vaunted Kansas City pass rush.
However, is Alex Smith going to take a few risks against a vulnerable Atlanta defense? Probably not, but if he does Atlanta’s back-seven have players with good ball skills and an improving pass rush that can force turnovers.
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Overall, both teams will exploit each others weaknesses. Atlanta comes out on top because of a late offensive surge that a tired Chiefs defense won’t be able to fully contain. The Falcons win, but the Chiefs cover barely.
Pick: Falcons 27, Chiefs 24