Arizona Wildcats’ frontcourt is saving its season
The Arizona Wildcats are being saved by their frontcourt
Despite losing their best returning player, Allonzo Trier, for an unspecified amount of time to start the season and then watching Parker Jackson-Cartwright go down with an ankle injury in their seventh game, the Arizona Wildcats are off to a 10-2 start, ranked 18th in the AP Poll. With big wins over Michigan State and Texas A&M and their only losses coming to very good Butler and Gonzaga squads, the Wildcats’ strong play early on has largely been a product of their frontcourt.
Despite adding five-star recruits Kobi Simmons and Rawle Alkins to returners Trier and Jackson-Cartwright, coach Sean Miller hasn’t had the guard-heavy team many imagined prior to the season. Losing their two veterans at the position so early has forced Simmons and Alkins into larger roles than they might have otherwise seen, but it has been the contributions of their big men that has kept their season alive.
Most of Arizona’s early successes start and end with freshman Lauri Markkanen, a seven-footer from Finland reminiscent of NBA star Kristaps Porzingis. He has done it all thus far, leading his team in volume stats such as minutes, points and rebounds as well as efficiency numbers like Player Efficiency Rating and true shooting percentage.
Markkanen was a five-star recruit ranked ahead of Simmons and Alkins by ESPN, but he has exceeded even the lofty expectations his pedigree set. He is very fluid for his size, and that allows him to score in a variety of ways; he is equally potent posting up, being the screener in a pick and roll, or spotting up around the action. Per Synergy Sports, he scores a ridiculous 1.26 points per possession, ranking in the 98th percentile in the nation.
Despite all of his skill and versatility offensively, he could still stand to add some size to his frame and needs to learn to leverage his size into a bigger defensive impact. Shooting a team-best 46% from three, however, he provides the floor-spacing necessary to fit with another big to mask those deficiencies, most often fellow seven-footer Dusan Ristic of Serbia.
Ristic is a more traditional big man, providing more size and toughness in the paint. He is able to match up with opposing centers on the defensive end, allowing Markkanen to use his speed and agility to take on less physically-imposing players and avoid exposing his deficiencies inside. On offense, Markkanen’s penchant for the three-point shot means that the team’s spacing isn’t compromised despite having Ristic planted firmly down low.
The ability to play two giants has advantages. The Wildcats have out-rebounded their opponents in all but two games (both of which were wins) and own a +79 total rebounding margin, or over 6.5 per game. Clearing the defensive glass is an undervalued part of team defense, and earning extra possessions via offensive rebounds is a big advantage for the 30th-ranked offense in the nation, according to KenPom.
The twin towers haul in more than one-third of the team’s total rebounds, including over 40% of the its offensive rebounds. For a team that gets nearly 10% of its offense from offensive rebound putbacks, per Synergy, that is a significant amount of production for a team looking to replace its returning leading scorer.
On top of dominating the rebounding battle, the combination of Markkanen and Ristic have taken nearly half of the team’s shots when they are on the floor to the tune of an effective field goal percentage of 56.5%, well over the team and national averages of 51.8% and 50.2% respectively. Helping the team maintain its efficiency is huge when the two most used guards on the team are true freshman, who tend to struggle in that area.
Being able to go to the post to get so many buckets is especially helpful in the absence of Jackson-Cartwright, their top distributor. With Simmons and Alkins managing just 4.3 combined assists dominating the ball at the guard spots, having bigs you can depend on to go and get a bucket without someone creating it for them is a valuable trait. Additionally, with so much youth handling the ball, protecting it is at a premium. Markkanen’s 8.6% turnover rate, ranking 61st of 2188 players nationally, helps them keep possession while having a the ball in the hands of a high-volume player.
The guys who spell relief for Markkanen and Ristic aren’t exactly slouches, either. Sophomore Chance Comanche and junior Keanu Pinder average about 35 minutes per game combined and are effective presences defending and rebounding down low. They each see minutes alongside Markkanen in a role similar to Ristic, though neither fills as big a role as the Serb.
What both do exceptionally well, though, is put up points with the clock stopped. Though neither plays enough minutes to qualify for the national leaderboard, Pinder’s 75.9 free throw rate and Comanche’s 44.2 jump off the page. Trips to the charity stripe are the easiest way to get points, and having reserves that are able to do that at such a high level are invaluable.
All of this manifested itself in the Wildcats’ big victory this weekend against Texas A&M. Facing a team that had lost its two best guards after last season, they were going to be tasked with slowing a post-oriented team led by preseason All-SEC forward Tyler Davis. Markkanen and Ristic were marvelous, combining for more than half of the team’s 67 points. All four bigs contributed effectively, with Arizona garnering a lead as big as 21 points with just over five minutes to go in the game. Only a furious A&M comeback made the game seem closer than it was.
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Overall, Sean Miller only deployed seven players in the game, four of whom were the aforementioned bigs. After losing so much skill and leadership at the guard position , the team’s reliance on their front court was evident. Though it appears Parker-Cartwright may return sooner than expected, Trier could miss the entire year so this trend will likely continue for the Wildcats.
If they want to make a run in the NCAA Tournament, Arizona will likely have to lean on their star Lauri Markkanen and the rest of the bigs for stability. With inexperience left to pick up the slack of losses in the back court, Miller has to look to his front court for production. Through most of the non-conference schedule, they’ve proven that they’re up to the task.