Cactus Bowl, Boise State vs Baylor: Preview and predictions
Previewing Tuesday’s 2016 Cactus Bowl between the Boise State Broncos and Baylor Bears from Phoenix.
The Boise State Broncos will try to secure an 11 win season when they meet the Baylor Bears on Tuesday night in the 2016 Cactus Bowl from Chase Field.
Boise State reached the double-digit win plateau in the regular season for the eighth time in the past 10 years with a mark of 10-2. While losses to Wyoming and Air Force kept the Broncos from a Mountain West title or New Year’s Six Berth, they picked up strong wins over Washington State and BYU over the course of the season.
The Broncos averaged over 35 points per game, with do-it-all playmaker Jeremy McNichols leading the way. McNichols piled up 327 touches and totaled 2,113 yards from scrimmage, the second-highest mark in the nation, with 27 touchdowns.
Baylor had high hopes in mid-October with a 6-0 mark that included a win over a good Oklahoma State team. Since then, the Bears have lost six straight, becoming only the second team in FBS history to go 6-6 after starting a season at 6-0.
The Cactus Bowl comes at a time of transition for Baylor, as Matt Rhule will be bringing in a new coaching staff to a program with the possibility of NCAA punishment down the line. With quarterback Seth Russell out due to injury and running back Shock Linwood sitting out, the Bears will lean heavily on Terrence Williams, who rushed for 945 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2016.
Given Baylor’s recent form, it’s not surprising to see it as a touchdown underdog on Tuesday.
Odds
Spread: Boise State -7.5
Moneyline: Boise State -300, Baylor +250
O/U: 67
This is a difficult matchup for a middling Baylor team, as Boise State features excellent balance on both sides of the ball.
The Broncos featured one of the most efficient offenses in the nation, averaging seven yards per play. While Baylor may be able to at least slow McNichols, sophomore quarterback Brett Rypien should be able to pick apart a shaky Bears secondary after throwing for over 3,300 yards in the regular season.
With backup quarterback Zach Smith stepping in for Russell, Baylor could have trouble moving the ball against a good Boise State pass defense. The Broncos’ one minor weakness is rush defense, so Williams will need a huge day for Baylor to keep up offensively.
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Smith has thrown six interceptions over his past three games, something he will need to avoid on Tuesday night. While Boise State has done a poor job of forcing turnovers this season, the Baylor offense is going to have to show a lot of improvement after looking lifeless for weeks.
The Broncos lost a pair of games they shouldn’t have this year, but the Cactus Bowl looks like a big mismatch in their favor across the board.
Prediction: Boise State 38, Baylor 21.