Do James Harden and the Houston Rockets need another star?
Things are going swimmingly for James Harden and the Houston Rockets. Harden might the NBA’s MVP, at worst, he’s one of the top three contenders. Houston currently owns the Western Conference’s No.3 seed, placing them ahead of teams like the Los Angeles Clippers, Utah Jazz and Russell Westbrook’s Oklahoma City Thunder. At 24-9, Rockets are on pace to win 58 games based on 538’s projection system with the league’s fourth best net rating.
In short: the Rockets are good and appear to be here to stay.
By design, the Rockets have built everything around Harden. With Mike D’Antoni coaching and Dwight Howard now a Hawk, the Rockets have changed their identity and clearly become a one-star team. For the past few seasons, the Rockets have pushed hard to find the right stars to complement Harden. This summer those stars just weren’t in the cards to they opted for role players like Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson who fit perfectly. It’s not a two-party system anymore — Harden is King and D’Antoni is his trusted council.
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Harden is doing everything on offense to carry the Rockets. Both his usage rate (33.4 percent) and assist percentage (53.0) are career highs, and he’s also scoring 27.7 points per game. The most remarkable thing may be that Harden is playing in a way that feels sustainable, particularly when compared to Westbrook’s season.
Westbrook is a human cannonball set on destruction every possession down. Harden is patient, calculated and control. Even when he gets contained, the Rockets’ offense and complementary roster allows for simple solutions.
Just look this possession from a recent game against the Memphis Grizzlies:
Or this one where the San Antonio Spurs have three defenders — including Kawhi Leonard — paying attention to Harden:
By design, Houston is putting Harden in the position to make as many plays as possible in whatever fashion best suits the moment. It helps, too, that Harden is a killer in isolation and can bail the team out if everything else fails to work.
Just look the rest of Houston’s roster. Clint Capela, before his injury, protected the rim at a high level while doing just enough on offense. Ryan Anderson, free from defensive expectations, is shooting 44.3 perccent on catch-and-shoot 3s. It’s a shot that takes up almost 50 percent of his attempts per nba.com/stats. Next to Harden in the backcourt, Patrick Beverley does the jobs Harden doesn’t — on a career-low 13.3 usage rate, Beverley hits 3s, defends and rebounds as a guard version of Draymond Green.
Off the bench, Eric Gordon, has turned into a lethal high volume 3-point shooter. He was almost forgotten after dealing with injury after injury in New Orleans. Others — Nene, Trevor Ariza, Sam Dekker, etc. — have all found roles that both compliment Harden and hide the limitations of D’Antoni’s scheme. The role players are perfect in that they complement Harden by skill, but also allow him to maximize his own offensive volume.
There are, of course, pitfalls to building around just one guy. The Pelicans’ strategy around Anthony Davis is an example of what can go wrong (injuries) and the Thunder are an example of what can happen if you have retool on the fly. If Harden ever happened to get hurt and have to miss an extended period of time, the Rockets would probably stop being this good immediately.
It’s hard to know what Daryl Morey’s plan is beyond this season. His overarching vision for the Rockets has been simple: amass assets and cap space to to maximize Houston’s chances landing stars. It would be unlike Morey is he wasn’t still trying to do something along those lines — it’s just who he is. And there’s an argument that in order for Houston to complete with the Warriors over the next few years, they’ll need to find Harden a co-star.
But among the stars that will or could be available in the next few years, there isn’t an ideal fit. DeMarcus Cousins is great, but not an ideal fit for D’Antoni’s offense. The methodical post-ups needed to maximize Cousins would eat away at Harden’s role. Blake Griffin could be fun, but he two would take away from Harden. Kyle Lowry — a former Rocket — stands out as well. But is it worth it to pay him the max when you already have Beverly locked in at $5.5 million for next year?
The archtype of player that could make sense would be Jazz wing Gordon Hayward, who can opt out of his contract this summer. Hayward can handle the ball when Harden is out, is a good 3-point shooter and a capable defender. In short: he compliments what Harden does without taking away from what has made Harden great this year. Paul Millsap, albeit older and at a different position, meets some of the same criteria.
But all of those players, in sharing the floor with Harden, would naturally lighten his offensive primacy, which is precisely what has made him so special this season.
As the Rockets move forward, assuming they make some sort of a playoff run this year, will have choices to make. With a relatively cheap payroll — they’re under the cap for next summer and could create more space to sign a max guy — they’ll be able to spend come July. And they could well go for the big name, the guy that’ll command most of their available money.
But if the season so far is worth anything, they may not need to. The Rockets, with Harden as their lone star, are already on their way.