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Dolphins at Steelers: Picks, predictions and odds

By John Buhler

Oct 16, 2016; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jarvis Landry (14) is tackled by Pittsburgh Steelers inside linebacker Lawrence Timmons (94) during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins won 30-15. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 16, 2016; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jarvis Landry (14) is tackled by Pittsburgh Steelers inside linebacker Lawrence Timmons (94) during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins won 30-15. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Pittsburgh Steelers will host the Miami Dolphins in the 2016 AFC Wild Card Round. Here is a game preview, the betting odds, and final score prediction.

In one of the four NFL Wild Card games this weekend, the No. 3 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) will host the No. 6 Miami Dolphins (10-6) on Sunday, Jan. 8. Kickoff from Heinz Field in Pittsburgh will be at 1:05 p.m. ET. CBS will have the national telecast with Jim Nantz and Phil Simms in the booth.

Pittsburgh won the AFC North at 11-5 and garnered the No. 3 seed in the AFC Playoffs. The Steelers have won a league-best seven games in a row, but that includes two wins against the 1-15 Cleveland Browns and a couple other bad teams. Nevertheless, this is a Steelers offense that nobody in the AFC will want to go up against. This is a franchise that thrives in winning time.

Miami reached the AFC Playoffs for this first time since the 2008 NFL season. The Dolphins got in as the No. 6 seed with a strong 10-6 record. Did the Dolphins benefit from an easy schedule? Potentially, but ending the season on a 9-2 run is certainly impressive. So is being able to stay in the AFC playoff picture with a backup quarterback in the final weeks of the regular season.

Odds

Point Spread: Pittsburgh -10
Moneylines: Pittsburgh -475, Miami +375
Over/Under: 47

According to OddsShark.com, the Steelers will be laying 10 points at home to the visiting Dolphins. The associated moneylines for the 2016 AFC Wild Card game will be Pittsburgh -475 and Miami +375. This game’s over/under comes in at a combined 47 points.

Here are the trends to know about the Dolphins: 1.) Miami is 8-2-1 against the spread and 9-2 straight up in its last 11 games. 2.) The point total has gone over in all five of the Dolphins’ last five games. 3.) The Dolphins are 4-1 straight up and against the spread in its last five road games.

Here are the trends to know about the Steelers: 1.) Pittsburgh is 5-1-1 against the spread in its last seven games. 2.) The Steelers have won seven straight games. 3.) The point total has gone under in 14 of Pittsburgh’s last 20 games. 4.) Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 against the spread in its last five home games. 5.) The Steelers is 10-2 straight up in its last 12 home games.

Pittsburgh is the overwhelming favorite in this situation. The Steelers have the culture in place two win playoff games. Miami has not been a standup franchise in the playoffs since Dan Mario was their quarterback. That being said, the Dolphins seem to have one of the very best young head coaches in football in Adam Gase. He has a long way from being Don Shula, but the guy can coach and is a strong offensive mind.

With this being a cold-weather playoff game in Pittsburgh, let’s go with the under in this one. The Steelers will dictate the pace of the game with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback and Miami having to tread water with Matt Moore under center with Ryan Tannehill still recovering from a knee injury.

Both of these teams have powerful running backs in Pittsburgh’s Le’Veon Bell and Miami’s Jay Ajayi. Maybe Ajayi peaked too soon, but he could put together a game that could challenge Bell, who might be the best running back in the game entering the NFL Playoffs.

Where Miami has an edge over the Steelers is in the pass rush and in special teams. The Steelers defense is getting better, but is a far cray from the unit that won Super Bowls several years ago. Chris Boswell has been decent kicking the football this season, but that always seems to be an issue in Pittsburgh for whatever reason.

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This game will be closer than expected, meaning Miami is going to cover the 10-point spread. In a step-up moment, Roethlisberger will make the play that gives the Steelers the late-game lead. Moore will play well, but the Dolphins’ inexperience in the playoffs will be their undoing. Pittsburgh advances to play the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead next weekend.

Pick: Steelers 24, Dolphins 20

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