Will basketball trades eventually become like baseball trades?
The Atlanta Hawks are reportedly trading Kyle Korver to the Cleveland Cavaliers for something like Mo Williams, Mike Dunleavy, and a 2019 first-rounder. On paper, there was no particular reason for the trade to happen. Nobody would say they’re blowing the doors off the league, but they’re comfortably above .500, and — as of this writing — on a six-game winning streak.
Sure, the Hawks aren’t competitive with the Cavaliers, but nothing has happened that they couldn’t have predicted in the offseason, when they spent a lot of money.
They goofed in letting Al Horford go, but signed or extended Kent Bazemore, Dennis Schröder, and Dwight Howard, all of whom they’re paying a lot of millions to through 2019. They also hung on to Paul Millsap. They weren’t acting like a team who was bothered by the distance between them and the league’s elite, and they haven’t underperformed expectations. Yet here they are, looking very much like they’re poised to have a firesale.
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A lot of people write a lot of garbage about parity, how more teams are going to the Finals, how there were always major divides between the haves and have-nots and blah blah blah, but the truth is there’s never been anything like the level of dominance the Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors have over everyone else before. Know how I know that? One team had the greatest season in the history of the NBA last year, and the other team beat them. Then, the first team got Kevin Durant and the second team still beat them in their first matchup of the regular season.
We don’t think a lot about the differences between how the major sports do transactions, and we could. In football, for example, you rarely ever see a player traded for a player. Instead, you often see a really good player traded for a fourth or fifth round pick.
What I’m starting to wonder, though, is whether the extreme dominance of a few teams is going to make basketball trades a lot more like baseball trades. In baseball, it is basically the case that the contenders and non-contenders are sorted out by midseason and then a remarkable thing happens: Often, several teams that were built to compete but aren’t competing have a firesale. The word seems to be that if you’re not winning a lot, you’re selling, and if you’re winning, you’re always buying. You need that right-handed reliever, or left-handed bat, and you go out and get it.
The NBA has not worked this way for lots of reasons. For starters, there are a lot fewer players, and no minor league system. MLB teams can always sell, and buy, because there always is a player or draft pick to be had in return and NBA teams can’t do that the same way. You don’t trade one of your 15 players or two draft picks for just anybody.
Yet, at the same time, if the Hawks aren’t contending, nobody is contending. I mean, obviously, that’s not totally fair. Fourth seed they may be, but they’re only on a 45-win pace. Still, it’s not like a Millsap-Howard front court isn’t one of the better ones out there, Schröder is still coming on, and Korver was a big part of what they do. Considering that it’s a pretty new starting roster, in a lot of ways, it isn’t unreasonable to think a little time to gel would do a world of good. But, of course, not enough good. They could have known that before the season started, and that remains the weird thing. But it’s a true thing.
What everyone needs to ask themselves is, is somebody like the Los Angeles Clippers really a contender, barring major injury to the Dubs or Cavs (i.e., LeBron James, since if the Warriors lose Stephen Curry or KD they still have the other one)? Are the Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics? If not — and the answer is probably not — it won’t just be the case this year, it’ll probably be the case for years to come. Nobody is drafting or trading their way to being as good as the teams which have the two of the best players in the game (not Anthony Davis division), and several other great players besides.
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And if that’s true, then we’re going to see a lot more teams becoming midseason sellers, and the NBA may finally realize its goal of significant player movement. Teams which are pricey, good, but near the top of their potential will sell and teams that are mediocre, cheap, and looking to lock somebody in for the next couple years will buy. If the league really starts responding to how much better the two best teams are than anybody else, things could look very different indeed.