A guidebook for exploiting playoff matchups

As we trudge toward the postseason, there will be a lot of focus toward the jockeying for position at the top of each conference. The Cleveland Cavaliers have a three-game lead for the No. 1 seed in the East, but the next three teams (Boston, Washington, Toronto) are separated by just three games, and there’s a bit of space between them and the rest of the conference. Golden State has a 2.5-game lead out West, while the Spurs have a five-game cushion on the Rockets, who themselves have a five-game cushion on the No. 4 seed.

With the top of the conferences all but set, this is a pretty good opportunity to zoom out and see which areas of the game might leave those teams vulnerable to being exploited. To do that, we can take a look at their performance in each of the four factors, then identify which teams from the bottom of the conference bracket might be able to take advantage, and which fellow top-of-the-bracket teams could stop a run in its tracks should they make if out of the first round.

Let’s take a look.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Weaknesses: Offensive rebounding, shot defense, defensive rebounding

Potential exploiters: Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat

Are the Cavs going to lose to the Pistons or Heat in the first round if they snag the 8-seed? Of course not. Those teams just happen to feature players that can do some damage on the boards against them in Andre Drummond and Hassan Whiteside, who figure to be mere annoyances against Cleveland more than anything else.

The other three teams in the East’s top four all have rebounding issues as well, but at least possess the capability to take advantage of Cleveland’s surprisingly poor shot defense this season. However, we know from the past two years that a healthy Cavs team has another defensive gear, and we should expect to see it as Cleveland moves through the postseason.

Weaknesses: Getting free throws, offensive rebounding, fouls, fefensive rebounding

Potential exploiters: Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls

The Celtics issues present a mirrored image on either side of the floor. They rarely get fouled and they rarely corral offensive rebounds; they also foul a ton and get hammered on the defensive glass. The Pistons and Heat present the same issues for Boston as they do for Cleveland, with Drummond and Whiteside having the ability to control the glass and prove painful to deal with. Chicago, with Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler, could parade to the free-throw line against the Celtics if they don’t clean up their overall defense.

Unsurprisingly, Cleveland seems the most likely top-four seed to feast on Boston’s weaknesses. The Cavs rarely foul and they get to the line fairly often. They also have typically been a very strong rebounding team, even though that hasn’t been the case this season. Cleveland’s front line has been a huge thorn in the side of Al Horford-led front lines in the past and should present the same issues this postseason, assuming Kevin Love returns to full health.

Weaknesses: Getting free throws, turnovers, shot defense, fouls, defensive rebounding

Potential exploiters: Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls

Avoiding the 4-seed and the probable first-round matchup with the Hawks that comes with it seems pretty important for Washington. The Hawks rank in the top-15 in four of the five areas where the Wizards rank in the bottom half of the league. The Bulls no longer present quite the same issue on the glass now that Taj Gibson plays in Oklahoma City, but they still have Wade and Butler on the wing to create free throws and they rarely foul or turn it over themselves.

In later rounds, the Cavaliers and Raptors look more like teams that can cause problems for Washington than do the Celtics. Toronto forces turnovers, gets to the line a ton, and offensive rebounds better than most East teams. The same is true of Cleveland, which also rarely ever commits fouls that send opponents to the line.

Weaknesses: Fouls, Defensive rebounding

Potential exploiters: Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls

Toronto could have a really good defense if it wasn’t for the constant fouling and the getting destroyed on the glass. These issues can and should be mitigated somewhat after the acquisitions of Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker, but for now, the Raps could still be considered vulnerable to teams that can pound the glass or repeatedly get to the line. As we’ve noted throughout these Eastern Conference sections, the Hawks and Bulls are the two bottom-half teams most likely to do just that.

And yeah, the Raps are still likely to have a ton of problems with (who else?) the Cavaliers?

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Weaknesses: Getting free throws, turnovers, offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding

Potential exploiters: Utah Jazz, Memphis Grizzlies

The Rockets are betting that the best way to beat the Warriors might actually be to out-strength them, running and gunning and shooting tons of 3-pointers, but if you’re looking for teams that can exploit the Warriors’ areas of weakness, it’s no surprise that the two Big Body teams in the bottom-half of the west turn up at the top of the list. The Jazz and Grizzlies both avoid fouls, force turnovers, and control the glass. Their strengths align perfectly with the Warriors’ areas of concern. The issue for them, of course, is that the opposite is true as well.

In later rounds, as mentioned, we can expect the Rockets to attempt to out-Warrior the Warriors (good luck), while the Spurs try to slow things down, control the boards, force turnovers, and avoid ever sending the Warriors to the charity stripe.

Weaknesses: Getting free throws

Potential exploiters: Utah Jazz

Of course the Spurs are in the top half of the league in all but one of the four factors on both sides of the ball. They’re the Spurs. Utah is again the team that most closely aligns with their weaknesses, with the Jazz avoiding fouls more than any other possible early West playoffs opponent.

It should be noted that the Spurs’ biggest issue might actually be team speed, which doesn’t really show up in the four factors. A team like Golden State or Houston seems more likely to exploit San Antonio than does Utah, which plays almost like San Antonio Lite at times.

Weaknesses: Turnovers, Shot defense, Defensive rebounding

Potential exploiters: Memphis Grizzlies, Oklahoma City Thunder

Neither Memphis nor Oklahoma City has the explosive offense that most people think you’d need to outduel the Rockets, but rather both possess a contrast in styles. The Grizzlies and Thunder excel at forcing turnovers and hammering the offensive boards, areas where the Rockets are weak.

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The Spurs and Warriors, with their efficient shooting and turnover-happy defenses, should present issues for the Rockets as well. And the Spurs might be able to control the offensive glass in addition to everything else.