Eurocup Semifinal Preview: Who and how to watch

After an entertaining Top 16 round, the Eurocup quarterfinals were pretty low on intrigue. Only two of the series went to a deciding Game 3, as Lokomotiv Kuban quickly disposed of Zenit St. Petersburg, and Hapoel Jerusalem blew out Gran Canaria in a deciding Game 2. There was one significant upset, with Unicaja Malaga edging Bayern Munich in three games, but even that series was low on pop as it featured two of the weaker squads in the quarterfinals. In the most high-profile matchup, Valencia edged Khimki Moscow and Eurocup MVP favorite Alexey Shved, winning 92-76 behind a double-double from Timberwolves draft-and-stash Bojan Dubljevic, while holding Shved to 6-of-19 from the field.

We’re now down to four teams vying for the Eurocup’s guaranteed Euroleague spot, with Lokomotiv set to play Unicaja, and Hapoel squaring off with Valencia. The former features the competition’s two plucky upstarts, who overcame poor play earlier in the tournament to come within a series of a berth back to Euroleague. The latter features two teams that went to war in the regular season, splitting a series that was decided by six combined points.

This should be a solid pair of matchups, and now American fans will have a legitimate chance to follow along. Euroleague.tv is offering a package of all Eurocup playoff games for $21, meaning you no longer have to search for Youtube streams of questionable reliability and legality to watch your favorite European teams. This is a huge relief for those of us who have been scouring the internet looking for replays or highlights to follow these games. This has by far been the one area where the Eurocup has lagged behind the FIBA Champions League this season; now, you can watch what should be a better slate of games for a minimal fee.

Lokomotiv Kuban vs. Unicaja Malaga – The Upstarts

Game Times (All Times Eastern): Mar. 14, 12:00 p.m.; Mar. 17, 2:45 p.m.; Mar. 22, 12:00 p.m.

Lokomotiv and Malaga represent opposite outcomes from the semifinals; Loko clobbered Zenit in two games, while Malaga had to hold off a late Bayern comeback attempt to edge the Germans in Game 3. Both of these teams defend pretty well, but they do it in different ways; Loko has a strong interior presence, while Malaga gets it done with their perimeter defenders. Both teams were able to figure out ways to thwart their opponents’ offenses in the quarterfinals, and it will be interesting to see how Sasa Obradovic and Joan Plaza look to exploit weaknesses in this round.

Malaga probably has more to figure out on the offensive end. Their offense has been hit or miss this season, with several players who can take over at any given moment, but few who have done it consistently. Center Dejan Musli had the most success against Bayern, shooting 67.9 percent from the field for 15.3 points per game in the three-game series. But given he’s matched up with Kuban’s strongest defenders, that might not be the case. Instead, Malaga will likely turn to their guards for scoring, as they have several interesting options in former Arizona guard Kyle Fogg, Jamar Smith, and former Warrior Nemanja Nedovic, who can all help take over. Most of these players are isolation scorers, which may be a problem against a Loko team that likes to help and cut off penetration. How well Malaga can get the ball moving and set up their few shooters, such as 46.8 percent 3-point shooter Adam Waczynski, will be paramount to success.

On the other side, it’s all about former Cavalier Kevin Jones. The 27-year old has emerged of late as a fearsome one-on-one face-up scorer, and helped put Zenit away early in Game 2 with a 17-point effort. He’s a difficult matchup for many teams because he has a very strong base at 6-foot-8, 250 pounds, but he’s also pretty agile and has range out to 18 feet. He’ll go to war with Jeff Brooks, a decent post defender, at the four. This will be a pivotal matchup, as Loko will probably look to use Jones and the massive Ian Vougioukas as hubs from the blocks, as Unicaja’s guards attempt to swarm Matt Janning and Mardy Collins in the backcourt.

The biggest deciding factor will likely come on the glass, where Jones, Vougioukas, and Vladimir Ivlev have Loko averaging 37 rebounds per game, compared to Malaga’s 33. Loko just has a huge size advantage underneath, and Jones is the best offensive rebounder left in the competition, matched up against an undersized four in Brooks. That’s going to be a problem for Malaga, who might not be able to keep up offensively if they’re allowing a bunch of easy second chances. Plaza could get wild and try out their youngsters, Alen Omic and Viny Okouo, if things aren’t going well underneath, but then Kuban can just counter with Ryan Broekhoff as a stretch four who is still a solid rebounder, and that could exacerbate issues elsewhere on the floor.

Prediction: Lokomotiv in two. Unicaja will find ways to annoy Kuban, but that size advantage, coupled with the simplicity of Malaga’s offense against this elite defense, is probably too much for this to be a particularly interesting series.

Valencia vs. Hapoel Jerusalem – The wire-to-wire elites

Game Times: Mar. 14, 2:30 p.m.; Mar. 17, 7:00 a.m. (for some reason this is an afternoon tip in Israel); Mar. 22, 2:30 p.m.

The first two matchups between Valencia and Hapoel Jerusalem were two of the better games of the regular season. In the first matchup, Hapoel was able to knock off Valencia 81-77 at home, something that hasn’t happened since in the competition. Then in the return leg, Valencia got revenge, edging Hapoel 86-84 behind a 21-point, 6-assist effort from Antoine Diot.

What did we learn from these two matchups? For one, we know both of these teams are going to be vulnerable at the rim, as Hapoel shot around 60 percent from 2-point range in the first two matchups, and Valencia converted around 52 percent and got to the line 34 times in their win. Khimki Moscow exploited Valencia for stretches by just letting their guards isolate and run pick-and-rolls towards the rim, which put Dubljevic, a rather slow-footed defender, in a constant bind. Curtis Jerrells and Jerome Dyson found their way to the rim at will against Valencia earlier in the season, and that was with Diot, the Spaniards’ best perimeter defender. Diot missed the series against Khimki, as did Slava Kravtsov, and those two might be the biggest deterrents to Hapoel attacking the rim at will.

However, Valencia should be able to find some success as well. They’ve done a solid job of attacking opposing ball-handlers on the perimeter, and should force a solid amount of turnovers from Hapoel’s ball-dominant guards. Individual matchups in the post should also go Valencia’s way, as Luke Sikma’s passing and Dubljevic’s strength should help generate post-up opportunities against Amar’e Stoudemire and Lior Eliyahu, much as the opposite will also be true. This should be a good matchup for random occurrences of post wizardry.

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Prediction: I’ll ride with Hapoel in three, but just barely. The Israeli squad looked more dominant against a weaker opponent in the last round, but Khimki exposed weaknesses in Valencia that Hapoel can exploit. They’re also getting back at Valencia’s home-court advantage with that crazy afternoon tip-off, which might play into their favor. I’ll ride with the healthier team that also has the best two players in the series (Jerrells and Stoudemire).