Nylon Calculus: Kyle Korver returns to the 3-point leaderboard

Understandably, the Cavaliers’ shortcomings have been the subject of national attention. After starting the season with a 25-7 record and a top-five net rating, the reigning champions have stumbled to a 26-20 mark and a mediocre +1.6 points per 100 possessions since New Year’s Day. Their defense has been among the worst during this timeframe. Their roster has battled injuries and fatigue. With the playoffs just right around the corner, they find themselves scrambling for the top seed against a feisty Boston Celtics team that trails them by just a single game.

But it’s not entirely gloomy for the Cavs. Kyle Korver, for whom they traded in early January, has brought value to their potent offense. While his defensive contributions have been limited at best, and the entire transaction (which involves a future protected first-round pick) can’t be fully evaluated for some time, he has given Cleveland the additional sharpshooter that it coveted.

Korver’s offensive production has been noteworthy, particularly from behind the arc. In his 32 games with Atlanta earlier this season, he shot 41 percent from 3-point range, continuing a slide that saw him hit just 40 percent in the prior year. These figures were below his career average and, in fact, represented his poorest results since the 2008-09 campaign. Since joining the Cavs, his accuracy has improved.

As this chart shows, Korver’s made 53 percent of his 3-point attempts over the past 20 games — a nod to his best days with the Hawks. His overall 3-point accuracy in Cleveland has approached 50 percent, vaulting him atop the season leaderboard (albeit less than a percentage-point ahead of Utah’s Joe Ingles). Korver has seemingly deployed “another rocket launcher,” to borrow a phrase from LeBron James.

Of course, it’s one thing to highlight recent performance improvement and quite another to pinpoint the cause. The latter is a trickier endeavor that requires more thorough analysis than this article can provide. In general, however, it strikes me that Korver’s brief resurgence stems from a combination of mean reversion and ideal context.

This second point is reflected in the player tracking data. When we examine the amount of effort that Korver has taken to hunt for good scoring opportunities, we see some differences before and after the trade:

As a Hawk, Korver ran over 7,300 feet on offense for every 36 minutes of play, with an average speed of 4.8 miles per hour. His offensive engagement appeared to take place at various parts of the court, since nine percent of his touches were at the elbow, post or paint areas. This level of activity was largely consistent with the previous three seasons, although his touches in and around the key were closer to seven percent back then.

With the Cavs, by contrast, Korver has averaged shorter distances at lower speeds in fewer minutes per game. His court coverage has also shrunk, allowing him to concentrate on perimeter work and become a true specialist behind the arc. Nearly three-quarters of his shots have been 3-pointers, up from two-thirds in his Atlanta days. On the flip side, he has reduced the proportion of long 2-point field goal attempts to 15 percent, thereby optimizing his efficiency.

But the benefits go beyond shot location; the quality of Korver’s looks have improved as well. Whereas 76 percent of his 3-pointers were catch-and-shoot types in Atlanta, this rate has increased to 81 percent in Cleveland. Similarly, while 67 percent were open shots before the trade, the number has risen above 70 percent afterward. These classifications are certainly imperfect, and there are many questions surrounding the influence that defenses actually have on 3-point accuracy. Still, when coupled with the other data above, they help shed light on the amount of space that Korver has to operate.

To a large degree, none of these preliminary findings should come as a surprise. The current vintage of the Hawks system does relatively few favors for the likes of Korver, and results are bound to trend upward when a player starts receiving 15 percent of his passes from King James.

Next: Nylon Calculus -- Miami Heat find success by spreading the wealth on offense

Nevertheless, it’s good to see things pan out as anticipated every so often. The Cavs, after all, could probably use any form of reliability that they can get at the moment.