MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Stephen Strasburg is perfect with unders

The under has hit in all four Stephen Strasburg starts this season, but in the meantime, Zack Wheeler has registered a perfect record for overs. Which streak will snap Saturday?

Very unfortunate to see Adam Conley implode like that last night after faring nicely in his first handful of starts, and that disastrous showing ends up costing us our Pirates/Marlins under. Instead of dwelling on it, I need to get back on track today, so let’s move on right to Saturday.

Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 14-13-3 (51.9%), +5

Yesterday’s Result: Taillon vs Conley Under 8 (Loss)

New York Mets @ Washington Nationals

Zack Wheeler vs Stephen Strasburg

UNDER 8.5 (-105) (via OddsShark)

Something will have to give when these two starters hook up in the second contest of this three-game set between heated NL East rivals, the Mets and the Nationals.

Stephen Strasburg has made four starts, and in the process of looking tremendous as usual in the early going, he’s also gone 4-0 for under bets. In contrast, Zack Wheeler, who has been relatively fine for someone who was sidelined the last two years due to Tommy John surgery, has seen the over go 4-0 in each of his 2017 assignments. Which flawless streak will continue into May?

Let’s start with Strasburg, who has been as consistent as they get thus far. After all, he’s literally churned out seven strong innings in all of his outings, yielding exactly two or three runs each time out. If he can simply duplicate that same performance, we’ll take it, considering the line is as high as 8, but there’s plenty of evidence to believe he can make his final start of April his best one.

Strasburg is 7-3 in 12 career starts against the nemesis Mets, while recording a nifty 2.53 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. In addition, New York has hit just .200 off the prized right-hander during his eight years in the big leagues. With their best hitter Yoenis Cespedes currently on the disabled list, the potential is there for Strasburg to notch a complete shutdown outing. He may also have some extra energy and motivation this afternoon, coming off the paternity list following the birth of his second child.

Meanwhile, Wheeler has been a gift for over bettors, but that seems more coincidental than anything else, as the 26-year-old has actually been pretty solid in his long-awaited return from injury. Plus, he’s still been settling in, as a quick glance at his game log reveals that his ERA has gradually gone down after each of his starts.

Wheeler’s last assignment came on Sunday Night Baseball versus these same Nationals, and despite surrendering a first-inning grand slam to former Met Daniel Murphy, it ended up being his best and most encouraging outing of the campaign, as he ended up twirling six shutout innings right after. Interestingly, Wheeler only needed 101 pitches to complete his night’s work, which not only indicates he’s being allowed to go deeper into games, but it’s also a sign that he may be becoming more efficient.

The velocity is there again, and now the strikeouts are starting to pile up again, too, as Wheeler has compiled 13 K’s over his last two starts, spanning 12 innings. It’s also worth noting that the former first-round draft pick has actually fared considerably better on the road than at home during his time in the majors. In fact, in 30 career starts away from Citi Field, he’s 13-6 with a 2.91 ERA and .228 batting average against, compared to a 6-12 mark with a 4.61 ERA and .253 batting average against in 23 starts in front of the hometown fans. He can also benefit from the Nats not having their leadoff man, as Adam Eaton is expected to sit this afternoon after departing last night’s opener late in the ballgame.

Typically, the line for a matchup of this caliber emanating from Nationals Park would sit somewhere in the 7/7.5 range — rarely does a Strasburg start at home draw a number this high, but it’s something to capitalize on with both guys trending in the right direction. Thus, you have to like the under here.

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