World Series contenders and pretenders, fewer fastballs, power rankings, leaders and more

World Series contenders and pretenders, fewer fastballs, better curveballs, Billy Hamilton chasing 100, Major League III, power rankings and league leaders.

Sunday night, the Twins beat the Royals 8-4 in the second game of a doubleheader. Minnesota improved to 22-18, moving into a tie for first place in the AL Central, and becoming the last major league team to surpass the 40-game mark in 2017. As a result, we are officially in the second quarter of the season.

It’s no longer “early.” We know more about each team. Trends have emerged. We can tell which players are better than they were in years past, and which are worse.

The standings after Game No. 40 won’t match the standings after Game No. 162, but we must now accept them as more than simply the product of a small early-season sample.

Nevertheless, we can still debate which teams showed their true contending selves for the first 25 percent of the season, and which were just pretending. Five teams are non-negotiable World Series contenders:

• Houston Astros
• Washington Nationals
• Chicago Cubs
• Cleveland Indians
• Los Angeles Dodgers

Whether they’re in first place or not (the Cubs and Dodgers both began Tuesday in third place), these five teams are the most complete from top to bottom and should remain in the hunt for the postseason and the Fall Classic all year.

But what about the rest of the big league teams sitting above .500 heading into Tuesday night? We explore the pros and cons of each winning squad, and predict whether or not they have what it takes.

World Series Contender or Pretender?

New York Yankees

Over the winter, the Yankees rid themselves of a few veterans with huge contacts, which cleared the way for rookies Aaron Judge, (injured) Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez to play every day. So far, the plan has worked brilliantly. Judge is a legitimate MVP candidate, and thanks to better than expected performances from Starlin Castro, Brett Gardner and Aaron Hicks, New York has the highest scoring lineup in the American League.

Michael Pineda, Luis Severino and a strong bullpen have carried the pitching staff to a 3.86 ERA so far, which ranks in the top third in the AL. Once Aroldis Chapman returns from the DL, if C.C. Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka can overcome their early-season struggles, and if the front office springs for rotation depth at the trade deadline, the Yankees could shake off the pseudo rebuilding label completely and announce themselves as a full-blown World Series contender.

Yankees: Contender

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles have made a habit of over performing projections, and 2017 appears to be no different. Dylan Bundy and Wade Miley have been great in the starting rotation, and Chris Tillman has looked good in three starts after starting the season on the DL. Manny Machado, Chris Davis and Adam Jones have combined for 27 home runs, and if not for some guy named Aaron Judge, Trey Mancini, who is hitting .301/.339/.563 with seven homers and 23 RBI, would be in the Rookie of the Year conversation.

However, the rotation has very little depth. Ubaldo Jimenez and Kevin Gausman have struggled mightily, and the staff as a whole ranks 12th in the AL in ERA (4.33). Cy Young candidate closer Zach Britton has spent the bulk of the season on the DL and won’t be back for another six weeks or so, and Brad Brach has been a roller coaster since taking over ninth inning duties.

The Orioles may be good enough to stay above .500 and fight for a Wild Card spot, but they don’t appear to be World Series material.

Orioles: Pretender

Boston Red Sox

Chris Sale has easily been the best offseason acquisition any team has made this season. In nine starts, Sale has a 2.19 ERA with 95 strikeouts in 65.2 innings. Craig Kimbrel has been the most dominant closer in the AL, and Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez and Andrew Benintendi have been solid in the middle of the order.

Of course, the Red Sox rank dead last in the majors in home runs (38). Xander Bogaerts is hitting .320/.389/.433, but hasn’t gone yard yet. Dustin Pedrioa has only two long balls. The bullpen has been good, ranking fifth overall with a 3.13 ERA, but the pitching staff has been ravaged by injury.

David Price hasn’t pitched yet, and his expected June return should give the rotation a boost. Also, the Red Sox have the financial and minor league talent reserves to make any deal they need at the deadline — and some valuable players should be available. In other words, we can’t count Boston out yet.

Red Sox: Contender

Minnesota Twins

The Twins are in first place. Miguel Sano is a budding superstar that has hit as well as anyone in the major leagues so far this season. Ervin Santana pitched like a Cy Young candidate in April, and Jose Berrios has looked the part in May. Minnesota also has the second best defense in baseball, and the best among AL squads, according to FanGraphs data.

But there are concerns. First of all, while teams are capable of going worst to first in the division (the Twins did it in 1991 when they won the World Series), Minnesota was so bad last season it’s hard to imagine it’s be capable of sustaining this high level of play for the rest of the year. The club entered Tuesday with a plus-1 run differential, the lowest among first place teams by 23 runs. Offensively, the Twins rank 11th in the AL in runs scored and 14th in total bases, while the team’s pitchers rank 11th in ERA and last in strikeouts.

Twins: Pretender

Texas Rangers

The two-time defending AL West champs, and the hottest team in baseball, the Rangers recently won 10 straight games. Starters Yu Darvish and Andrew Cashner have been very good, and despite a rocky start for the bullpen — and former closer Sam Dyson in particular — Texas ranks in the top four in the AL in team ERA. Things could even improve when Cole Hamels returns to the rotation in a month or so.

Powered by Joey Gallo and Mike Napoli, the Rangers rank fourth in the AL in home runs (62), but the offense actually ranks 13th in the league in batting average (.237), 11th in on-base percentage (.316) and eighth in slugging (.413). The imminent return of future Hall-of-Famer Adrian Beltre should help raise those numbers though.

Rangers: Contender

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have the best player in baseball, Mike Trout, in their lineup. His .343/.464/.741 slash, 14 home runs and 34 RBI mark the hottest start to a season yet for the 25-year-old two-time AL MVP. Los Angeles also has one of the top sluggers in MLB history, Albert Pujols, in the lineup to provide protection. The Angels have stumbled on Bud Norris as a solid closer, and the starting rotation ranks in the top five in the AL in ERA.

However, despite Trout’s presence, the Angels rank 14th in the AL in slugging percentage (.378), 13th in OPS (.696) and ninth in runs scored (195). A World Series contender can’t survive with one elite performer and one post-prime future Hall of Famer. Plus, with eight pitchers, including Garrett Richards, Tyler Skaggs and Cam Bedrosian, on the DL, there are concerns about the pitching staff.

Angels: Pretender

Milwaukee Brewers

Eric Thames tore the cover off the ball in April, and has been one of the biggest surprises and best stories of the young season after coming back to the majors from South Korea. Thames had 13 of Milwaukee’s 66 home runs entering Tuesday, which tied the club with the Yankees for the major league lead. The Brewers also ranked third in the majors in runs scored (233). That explosive offense is a big reason why the Crew is in first place in the AL Central.

Matt Garza has been surprisingly effective in five starts, but the Milwaukee starting rotation had a 4.58 ERA through 44 games, which ranked 23rd in the majors. Collectively, Brewers pitchers have allowed a .272 batting average, the worst in baseball. Given the inconsistency of the pitching staff as a whole, as well as the competitive division in which they play, it’s tough to see the Brewers emerging with a postseason spot.

Brewers: Pretender

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have had one of the best pitching staffs in baseball through the first quarter of the season. In 41 games, St. Louis posted a 3.57 ERA, which ranked third behind the Dodgers and Astros in the majors. Mike Leake has been particularly good, and has a 2.03 ERA and 0.994 WHIP through eight starts.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Cardinals have the second worst defense among teams with a better-than-.500 record, and rank No. 26 overall (-9.8) according to FanGraphs. St. Louis also ranks No. 13 in the NL in home runs (43) and 10th in runs scored (186). Plus, Leake, Carlos Martinez, Lance Lynn and Michael Wacha have all posted a higher FIP than ERA, which could indicate they’ve actually been rather fortunate to allow so few runs so far.

Cardinals: Pretender

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies were featured in these pages last week, when I outlined the reasons why I didn’t believe in them in spring training. They’ve played so well I might have to change my mind soon, but I’m not fully sold yet. The Rockies may be in the Wild Card race come September, but a World Series still seems very unlikely.

Colorado has a good team with a solid lineup and a top-five defense, but it’s difficult to imagine a trio of rookie pitchers maintaining their current level of success all season. Also, bullpens have a tendency to blow up when it’s least expected. Plus, the NL West is a tough division. The Dodgers are still the favorite, the Diamondbacks have been nearly as good as Colorado and the Giants are heating up.

Rockies: Pretender

Arizona Diamondbacks

No team in the majors had a higher team ERA than the Diamondbacks last season, but the Arizona pitching staff has turned itself around and currently ranks fourth in baseball with a 3.60 ERA. Zack Greinke has been outstanding in 10 starts, and has a 2.82 ERA with 78 strikeouts in 67.0 innings.

Offensively, Paul Goldschmidt is one of the best all-around players in the big leagues. He’s hit .315/.448/.580 with 11 home runs, 35 RBI and 38 runs scored, along with 11 stolen bases. We expected that. We didn’t necessarily expect Chris Owings, David Peralta and Jake Lamb to be as good as they have been.

It may sound strange given the fact they’ve spent the majority of the season staring up at the Rockies and must still contend with the Dodgers, but because of the balance the club has offensively and on the mound, the D-Backs have staying power and might be a sneaky World Series contender.

Diamondbacks: Contender

Three things we learned this week

1. Pitchers are throwing fewer fastballs and better curveballs

On their Effectively Wild podcast (beginning around the 28:00 mark) on Monday, Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan discussed the fact major league pitchers are throwing fewer fastballs in 2017 than they have in recent seasons. Sullivan pointed out that the MLB-wide fastball rate (currently 55 percent) has dropped at least one percent in each of the past two seasons, which is a significant change.

It’s a surprising development given the increase in velocity we’ve seen among pitchers over the past decade. But it’s worth noting (as Sullivan does) that the drop in fastballs can be somewhat attributed to the diversification of the pitch, notably the rise in cutters (cut fastballs) and sinkers — both in terms of pitchers using them, and improved data collection.

On a similar note, Tom Verducci’s cover story for Sports Illustrated titled “Why the curveball is taking over the game,” was posted to SI.com Tuesday. Verducci touched on the interesting trend in which pitchers aren’t relying as heavily on fastballs as much as we might expect, and examined the state of No. 2 pitch in baseball today. He also spoke with some of the pitchers with the best curves in the game, including cover boy and dark horse Cy Young candidate Lance McCullers.

2. Billy Hamilton is (almost) on pace to steal 100 bases

Most baseball fans know Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton is the fastest player in the major leagues. He’s made highlight-reel catches in centerfield, where he is a potential Gold Glove Award winner, and is a speed demon on the base paths, where he regularly puts heavy pressure on pitchers and hitters to contain him.

At The Ringer, Michael Baumann recently wrote about Billy Hamilton’s (literally) fast start on the base paths this season. As Baumann pointed out, through his team’s first 43 games this season, Hamilton has 23 stolen bases in 25 attempts. That puts him on pace for 87 steals this season, which would make Hamilton the first MLB player to swipe 80 bags in a season since Rickey Henderson in 1988.

If he stays healthy and gets on base more through the final three quarters of the season (Hamilton currently has a mediocre .315 on-base percentage), it’s possible the 26-year-old could surpass 100 stolen bases — something he did twice as a minor leaguer, yet a feat no big league player has accomplished since Vince Coleman in 1987.

3. Charlie Sheen has a plan to make Major League III

Omigod omigod omigod omigod.

Major League is the best baseball movie ever made. It’s better than Bull Durham or Field of Dreams or anything else starring Kevin Costner. The Natural, The Sandlot, A League of Their Own or Moneyball? Sorry, no. Major League is the very best of the genre.

Beyond being one of the most realistic baseball movies ever made, Major League holds a special place in my heart. When I was about six years old, my parents took me to the video store weekly to rent movies. I picked up Major League and watched it alone in my room probably two dozen times before my parents learned it was R-rated. I actually blew my own cover when I asked my parents to explain the dialogue between Jake Taylor and Roger Dorn when the two players met at Dorn’s home after the third baseman didn’t dive for a ground ball.

Major League II was enjoyable, though not nearly as good from beginning to end as the original, and Omar Epps wasn’t nearly as good a Willie Mays Hayes as Wesley Snipes. Major League: Back to the Minors, well, sucked.

However, if Charlie Sheen can get the majority of the original cast back on board for Major League III, as he recently told TMZ he has, as well as the funding needed to green light the project, there’s hope for another outstanding baseball movie.

I obviously have no idea what the plot would be, and it’s strange to think about what a bunch of guys in their 50s and 60s (Tom Berenger, who played the veteran catcher Taylor, is 68) would do for at least 90 minutes, but I would sure as hell watch it.

Quotable

"“The most recent animal I milked was a goat.”"

– J.J. Hoover, as he prepared to take part in a cow milking contest Tuesday with fellow Diamondbacks pitchers Archie Bradley and Andrew Chafin.

This is a thing that happened, for some reason.

Play of the Week

Aaron Judge can do it all. The Yankees’ larger than life slugger leads the major leagues with 15 home runs, but he’s also been a surprisingly good fielder.

Judge is currently tied in third place in the majors with seven Defensive Runs Saved, and is tied for the MLB lead among outfielders with Rays Gold Glove winner Kevin Kiermaier.

League Leaders

Even in terms of advanced baseball analytics, it’s often good to get back to basics. Arguably the best stat in baseball is Wins Above Replacement (and we prefer FanGraphs’ version to Baseball-Reference, though both are good), since its aim is to measure the overall value of a player. The quarter mark of the season is the perfect time to check in on fWAR.

Wins Above Replacement (fWAR)

• Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (3.1)
• Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins (2.7)
• Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves (2.6)
• Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals (2.6)
• Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.4)

Mike Trout is still the best player in baseball, and the race isn’t particularly close at the moment. Bryce Harper has spent his major league career competing with Trout for that honor, and isn’t far behind. Miguel Sano strikes out way, way too much still (34.5 percent), but has been hitting the cover off the ball when he makes contact.

Paul Goldschmidt’s value includes stolen bases, and the D-Backs first baseman ranks fourth in the NL and No. 6 in baseball with 11 steals — two more than Trout. Poor Freddie Freeman won’t be a top-five player much longer because of a broken wrist that is expected to sideline him until after the All-Star Break.

As for pitchers, Red Sox lefty Chris Sale has an even larger lead than Trout. Simply put, Sale has been amazing in his first season in Boston.

Wins Above Replacement (fWAR)

• Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox (3.0)
• James Paxton, Seattle Mariners (1.8)
• Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (1.8)
• Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks (1.7)
• Alex Wood, Los Angeles Dodgers (1.7)
• Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals (1.7)
• Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays (1.7)

A couple of surprising names rank among the top five: James Paxton and Alex Wood. Paxton’s standing is particularly interesting given the fact he’s been on the disabled list since early May with a forearm strain. In six starts through May 2, Paxton posted a 1.43 ERA, 1.52 FIP, and 0.982 WHIP with 45 strikeouts and 11 walks in 37.2 innings. He’s expected to return to the Mariners rotation May 31.

Wood started the season in the bullpen, and struggled in three of his first four starts, but has been almost unhittable in his other four starts. Overall, Wood is 5-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 52 strikeouts in 43 innings. Since April 26, he has posted a 1.23 ERA and has held hitters to a .196 batting average in 29.1 frames.

Random MLB Power Rankings: Best big league ballparks

1. Wrigley Field, Chicago Cubs
2. Fenway Park, Boston Red Sox
3. AT&T Park, San Francisco Giants
4. PNC Park, Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore Orioles
6. Yankee Stadium, New York Yankees
7. Petco Park, San Diego Padres
8. Minute Maid Park, Houston Astros
9. Coors Field, Colorado Rockies
10. Safeco Field, Seattle Mariners

Useless Info

Monday night, Braves second baseman Brandon Phillips hit home run No. 200 of his career. Phillips, who has 205 stolen bases to his credit to date, became the sixth second baseman to join the 200/200 club, joining Joe Morgan, Ryne Sandberg, Roberto Alomar, Craig Biggio and Ian Kinsler.

New teammate Matt Adams hit a home run Tuesday, his second in three games since he was traded to the Braves from St. Louis. Adams homered twice in 31 games with the Cardinals this season.

Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista started at third base Tuesday, his first start at the position since 2013.

Pirates announcer Joe Block pointed out on Twitter Monday that Juan Nicasio has put together a string of 13 straight scoreless appearances dating back to April 22. Not only has Nicasio not been charged with a run, he hasn’t allowed any of the six runners he inherited to score.

ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian pointed out that Bill Buckner never struck out three times in a game during his 22-year career, and Tony Gwynn did it just once 20 seasons.

The Texas Rangers had a 10-game winning streak snapped Saturday, which likely prompted Ely Sussman to dig in to some of the club’s longest winning streaks. Sussman discovered a tidbit and shared it on Twitter: During a franchise record 14-game win streak in 1991, Texas pitchers gave out more free passes (76) than strikeouts (61).

Pete Kozma homered for the Rangers Sunday night, which was his first home run in 545 at bats. According to ESPN Sports & Info, Kozma’s streak was the longest active streak for a position player when it ended.

Speaking of the Rangers, Yu Darvish has a 30.0 percent strikeout rate and 11.17 K/9 in 110 starts. Both are the best ever for a pitcher with more than 100 career starts to his credit. Hat tip to Ryan M. Spaeder for pointing out Darvish’s standing.

Next: MLB Trade Rumors: 5 players Nationals should acquire

Chad Pinder hit a majestic 483-foot home run Saturday against the Red Sox. The bomb was one of three home runs Oakland hit in the fifth inning that day, which, according to ESPN Stats & Info, also happened to be the three longest homers the A’s have hit this year. Pinder’s moonshot was the longest for the franchise in nine years.