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Toyota/Save Mart 350: Preview and predictions for Sonoma

By Nick Tylwalk

SONOMA, CA - JUNE 24: Cars line up during qualifying for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway on June 24, 2017 in Sonoma, California. (Photo by Sarah Crabill/Getty Images)
SONOMA, CA - JUNE 24: Cars line up during qualifying for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway on June 24, 2017 in Sonoma, California. (Photo by Sarah Crabill/Getty Images) /
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The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series winds its way through wine country, and we give you a little taste of what to expect.

While the other two top NASCAR series battled it out this weekend on a short track in the nation’s heartland. the Cup Series drivers are going to be doing something completely different, as Monty Python once said. The Toyota/Save Mart 350 beckons from Sonoma Raceway, promising a much different test of driving skills than what occurs on a regular basis.

It’s much more than just throwing left turns into the mix, as the track offers elevation changes and the potential for race-changing collisions as well. Yet it looks like business as usual so far when you consider that Cup Series points leader Kyle Larson, fresh off his second victory of 2017 at Michigan, sits on the pole.

Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Jamie McMurray is right beside him, making one wonder if that team has found a little something that others have not. In fact the Chevy qualifying order looks a lot different than normal, with the likes of A.J. Allmendinger (5th), Chris Buescher (9th) and Paul Menard (15th) all starting higher than we’ve been accustomed to seeing them.

It’s also worth noting that two of the previous three winners of this race, Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards, aren’t in today’s field. There’s an opportunity for someone new to grab a victory that could shake up the playoff field some more, or for the 2017 usual suspects like Larson and Martin Truex Jr. (starting 3rd) to enforce the status quo. That, even more than the winding road, should make the Toyota/Save Mart 350 fascinating to watch.

Next: Full Toyota/Save Mart 350 grid and starting lineup

Forecast

Worried about rain? Not in Sonoma, where Weather Channel says there’s a zero percent chance of any precipitation during today’s race. The forecast also calls for temperatures that should only change about three degrees from the start of the race to the finish under consistently sunny skies, so this doesn’t stand out as a day when changing track conditions will prove vexing for crew chiefs.

Three things to watch

  • Does Kyle Larson have road course racing figured out? While Larson is the embodiment of the “any time, any car” style of racer for the 21st Century, he hasn’t exactly torn it up at road courses yet, with only one top-10 finish in six attempts in a Cup Series car — and none at Sonoma. But he’s doing things this year that suggest he’s got everything down, and if he shines here too, look out.
  • Can any of the road course ringers contend for a win? The gut call is to say probably not. Guys like Boris Said are in bad equipment, so even with their skill and experience, it’s unlikely that they will be running up front. That said, they’ll still drive better on a road course than the people they are replacing (sorry, Jeffrey Earnhardt), making the regulars fight them that much harder for positions. You don’t want to be in the back of this particular field.
  • Is this finally the day Kyle Busch visits Victory Lane in 2017? The NASCAR world has been waiting for weeks for a breakthrough victory by any Joe Gibbs Racing car and it has yet to happen. There’s no particular reason to think it will come at Sonoma for any of the drivers except for Busch, who rolls off 4th and has won this race twice before. If he can pull it off, this storyline finally gets put to bed, but if not …

Predictions

With all due respect to the two Kyles, this has the feel of a Martin Truex Jr. day. He’s been great so far this season on all kinds of tracks and won the Toyota/Save Mart 350 in 2013 with a less dominant car, so he’s going to be a factor barring mechanical issues or getting caught up in a wreck. Look for Truex to at least nab a stage win like he’s been doing regularly if he doesn’t take the checkered flag too.

And for a dark horse pick, we’ll ride with A.J. Allmendinger, who has proven road course talent. His lone win was at the Glen, but he can get around Sonoma too and it’s hard not to feel that the road courses might be his only chances for a victory this season.

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