Michael Carter-Williams took an L, but he can bounce back

Before Joel Embiid and Dario Saric battled for Rookie of the Year honors, a different 76ers rookie was wowing fans in Philly. Michael Carter-Williams, at one point a shining star giving pre-Process Sixers fans hope, starred in his NBA debut in 2013.

Carter-Williams dropped an unbelievable performance on the superteam Heat in his first-ever NBA game, totaling 22 points, 12 assists, seven rebounds and an incredible nine steals in 36 minutes of action. The 76ers won by four. LeBron James, then-reigning MVP, said he “couldn’t think of a better way” for an NBA career to begin. Carter-Williams became the favorite in the Rookie of the Year race, which he eventually won.

Philly’s president of basketball operations at the time, Sam Hinkie, showered praise on his Rookie of the Year in an NBA.com article about the award’s new home in Philadelphia:

"“By opening night, it was clear to us that Michael belonged,” Sixers President Sam Hinkie said. “This award marks a lifetime of hard work. … We congratulate him on this unique achievement and look forward to helping him put in the work necessary to garner even greater success in the future.”"

Less than a year later, the Sixers dealt Carter-Williams to the Bucks for, essentially, a protected Lakers draft pick. A year and a half after that, the Bucks traded Carter-Williams to the Bulls straight up for Tony Snell, a player who averaged 5.3 points per game in his career at that point, with a field goal percentage under 40.

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And now, most recently, less than a year after being swapped for Snell, Carter-Williams is being made an unrestricted free agent by the Bulls, who have decided not to tender a qualifying offer to him to make him a restricted free agent. It’s the first time that’s ever happened to a Rookie of the Year.

What in the world has changed so much for Carter-Williams since his days as a rookie? And, more pressingly, can Carter-Williams find his way back to prominence going forward?

Carter-Williams is not a player who thrives in an off-ball role. He’s a career 25.2 percent 3-point shooter, and he’s never cracked 30 percent in a single season. That alone tends to spell disaster for guards in the modern NBA. He tried to become a shooter in his lone Bulls season, taking more 3s compared to the rest of his shots than he ever had before. The result was a career-low 23.4 percent success rate from deep.

Only six players to take at least 50 3s shot worse than Carter-Williams last year. The only point guards to do worse were Semaj Christon, T.J. McConnell and Derrick Rose. Like Rose, Carter-Williams needs the ball in his hands to be successful.

He’s a ball-dominant player, but not necessarily a selfish one. Carter-Williams has a career average of 6.5 assists per 36 minutes, and he certainly can rack them up if he’s in a groove. The problem is the situation has to be delicately crafted for that to happen, if the team is going to find success. His time with the Bucks and the Bulls didn’t work, in part, because both teams surrounded him with largely non-shooters. Milwaukee’s first full season with Carter-Williams saw him starting next to Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker and Greg Monroe.

Various injuries (and his eventual benching) stopped that lineup from playing together all that often, which may have been a blessing. With one functional shooter in the group, that’s not a starting five that can succeed in the pace and space culture that currently pervades the NBA.

The Bulls, of course, had almost no spacing last season, electing instead to go with Carter-Williams, Rajon Rondo, Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade in some bizarre scheme to dribble the air out of every basketball in Chicago. Carter-Williams was horrible there, but he was never in anything close to a position to succeed either. The worst place for him is a team with other ball-dominant guards, especially those who can’t shoot, because his skills (finding open teammates, driving and sometimes defense) aren’t well-utilized if he’s standing in the corner, waiting to brick a 3-pointer.

However, surrounding Carter-Williams with three to four shooters and letting him run wild might just result in a fun system. The problem within that, though, is what team is willing to hand over control of its offense to a guy the freaking Bulls decided to let walk? Even the really bad ones — the Kings, the Nets, et cetera — have guards who they’d rather put trust in than Carter-Williams. At this point, there’s almost no chance a team considers signing him as a starter.

What if he isn’t a starter, though? Carter-Williams once averaged 16.7 points, 6.2 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game on a Sixers team that was essentially made up entirely of bench players. Given a real NBA bench to command, Carter-Williams could find success in the NBA once more. The bench will need shooters, and Carter-Williams almost has to be the main ball-handler there. Given those somewhat specific conditions, it would make sense that he could thrive again, albeit in a more limited role.

Developing some sort of a 3-point shot or becoming a suffocating defender could also open up the range of possibilities for him, although considering he’ll be 26 before the 2017-18 NBA season starts, it’s unwise for a team to bank on new tricks being learned at this point.

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He may not be an All-Star or live up to the incredibly high standards set by his rookie season, but Carter-Williams could still find a lane in the NBA. However, he’s got to be smart about his free agency destination this summer because joining a team with no shooters is a waste of everybody involved’s time.