Spinning 2008 Expectations: The “P” Word

Everyone from Adam Teicher to Jason Whitlock is talking expectations today over at the Kansas City Star. I think, and don’t get used to this, that we all three actually agree on something for once. I don’t care if the Chiefs go Wyclef Jean with playoff hopes that are “Gone By November”, in 2008 what I care about is progress. Progress, not win-loss record, will be the barometer for success this upcoming season.

I’m not even saying that the Chiefs need to necessarily have a better record during the second half of the season than the first one, because I actually think the second set of eight games is more daunting. That being said, how do I actually define progress when it comes to the Chiefs and the 2008 campaign? This is how:

1. The Eyeball Test - I want the Chiefs team that visits The Jungle up in Cincy on Week 17 to not even resemble the team that ventured into the unfriendly confines of Gilette Stadium on Week One. Win, lose or draw, come season’s end I want to see a confident, well-prepared team that executes with as few mistakes (read penalties and turnovers) as possible. I want Chiefs fans to be able to look at the way their team carries itself and say, we’re going somewhere, and going somewhere soon.

2. The Young Guns - Brodie Croyle is one obvious choice here, but I’m not really talking about him. Whether Brodie soars or sucks, I think the quarterback situation will take at least two more seasons to completely sort itself out. These are the guys we need to see make consistent progress as the season marches on: Bernard Pollard, Branden Albert, Brandon Carr, Brandon Flowers, Demorrio Williams, Derrick Johnson, Devard Darling, Dwayne Bowe, Glenn Dorsey, Jamal Charles, Jarrad Page, Rudy Niswanger, Tamba Hali, Tank Tyler, Turk McBride and Will Franklin. If that crew makes significant strides, we will be in great shape. If they don’t, our future will start disappearing quicker than that picture from Back to the Future. D-Bo and Swamp Thing will literally start fading in our header. No, not really, but it’s fun to imagine. If late-round picks like Barry Richardson, Brian Johnston and Kevin Robinson surprise, then our future will be even brighter. But I’m not putting too much stock in those guys–they were picked where they were picked for a reason.

3. Statistically Speaking - Offensively, I want our offense to be putting up more points in December than in September. I also want to see the offense, no matter who is under center, become more multi-faceted. All the passing numbers need to improve during the course of the season. Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez are premiere NFL targets, we have to be able to get them the ball with regularity. For Herm Edwards to succeed as the Chiefs head coach, his offense will need to become less one-dimensional and predictable. If that development is taking place, I think we’ll see improvement in the points-per-game and passing statistics. Another good indicator will be the drive chart. With what Chan Gailey and Herm are trying to accomplish, we are going to need to sustain long drives that eat up clock.

4. Special Teams Dreams - Yes, I’m dreaming of special teams units that aren’t completely and utterly inept. To field a competitive football team with 2009 playoff aspirations, we will have to make marked improvements in all assets of special teams play. Period. You can’t be a successful ball-control football team if you have lousy special teams units.

5. Winning the Turnover Battle - Forcing turnovers used to be a Kansas City staple, right there with bad baseball (unfortunately), BBQ and fountains. With Jared Allen now a Purple People Eater, will we be able to force turnovers? D.J., Tamba and Swamp Thing will have to step up in his absence. You can’t be a successful ball-control football team if you don’t win the turnover battle. Turnover margin will be very important. That also means that Brodie and L.J. will have to keep there turnovers to a minimum.

What are some of the areas you will be evaluating for signs of progress during the 2008 season?

Addict Angles: The Bryman’s Preseason Numbers

The Bryman, a somewhat newer commenter who’s quickly making a name for himself, had this interesting statistical response to Double D’s “Pre-Season Cawfy Talk” post about the Chiefs and the preseason:

Instead of taking it on faith, I went to NFL.com, and looked up the correlation between winning/losing and making/missing the playoffs. I did not count teams that went 2-2 in the preseason, only winners and losers. Here’s the result of what I found.

53 teams had winning preseason records during that period. Of those 53 teams:

Winner in preseason and made postseason: 19
Winner in preseason and missed postseason: 34

So a winner in the preseason made the postseason 36% of the time during that time.

65 teams had losing preseason records during that period. Of those 65 teams:

Loser in preseason and made postseason: 12
Loser in preseason and missed postseason: 43

So a loser in the preseason made the postseason 18% of the time during that period.

So what can we conclude on actual facts. A winner is twice as likely to make the postseason. However, the chances of a winning record meaning regular season success only happen a little better than 33% of the time.

Now that your all bored with a ton of numbers, I’m done, and if you don’t believe me, go and crunch the numbers yourself.

I can see this one from all the angles. I think it is definitely important to play well and at least win a game or two in the preseason, but I don’t think it’s the ultimate harbinger for the regular season.

Arrowhead Angles: Pre-Season Cawfy Tawk

I’ve been out on a Batman hiatus (I’ve already seen The Dark Knight twice…lol…it’s that good), but I just saw this in the e-mail. Double D, one of our favorite commenters who always puts the “A” in addict, sent in this on the Chiefs and the preseason…

The 1969 Chiefs (of Superbowl fame) tantalized their fans with a 6-0 preseason record. By contrast, last year’s 4-12 record was preceded by an 0-4 preseason.

Coaches, pundits, and fans will argue until they’re blue that pre-season wins/losses are totally meaningless as an indicator of what to expect during the regular season. They will tell you that the only value of the pre-season (aside from ticket sales & broadcast/advertising royalties) is that it provides coaches with a bit of film and a couple of stats that help justify why such and such rookie, veteran should be kept/cut.

Even if the playcalling is pure vanilla, I would still maintain that what a team does during the pre-season can be fairly good harbinger of things to come.

I believe that if the Chiefs do better than .500 this pre-season, that there is at least a 50-50 chance they make it into the post-season and that if they go .500 or worse, we will be about the same for the regular season.

Winning is part philosophy, part preparation, and part habit; talk amongst yourselves . . .

I think it depends on where a team is as far as its evolution is concerned. If the Colts or Patriots drop all four preseason games, it’s no biggie. But we’re a team that needs confidence, needs to experience winning. I do think for the Chiefs the preseason will be extremely important, possibly more important than for any other team.

If you want to submit a piece to be considered for Addict Angles, e-mail me at arrowheadaddict@gmail.com.

A.A.D.Q.: King Carl - Dark Knight Or Joker?

As many of our long-time readers know, I’m a huge Batman fan. After all, my name is only one letter off from being the exact same as TV’s Batman, Adam West. Coincidence? I think not. Anyway, The Dark Knight drops today, and fans are salivating over it like ESPN does Brett Favre. If you’re a Batman fan, be sure to check out my latest piece over at the Fan-Sided Blogs main site, where I cast the NFL’s wrong-doers, wackjobs and weirdos as Batman’s rogues gallery of supervillains.

That leads us to our Batman-inspired daily question: Is Chiefs GM Carl Peterson a misunderstood hometown hero or a public enemy who needs to have his free pass revoked? Is he the Crown Prince of Cheap? Or the Chiefs Crusader? I say a little bit of each, so maybe Two-Face is the best comparison? I’d hate to think that King Carl does a coin flip to decide his draft picks, but earlier this decade it couldn’t have been any worse even if he did.

You make the call on Carl–Dark Knight or Joker?

The Best View: Batman’s Rogues Gallery–Done NFL Style

No sense in denying it–I’m a huge Batman fanboy. When it comes to anything having to do with the cape and cowl, I just about cream myself. I’m not quite as obsessed as the Superman impersonator from Confessions of a Superhero is with Supes (thank God), but somewhat close. I’m as crazy about The Caped Crusader as he is, well, batshit crazy. As you can imagine, I’ve been loading up on Batman in preparation for The Dark Knight.

I picked up all 120 episodes of the 1960’s Batman TV series. (shush, don’t tell anyone…because it hasn’t been officially released yet…but you can get it here). With a name like Adam Best, how could I not be obsessed with the Adam West TV show? I remember sitting in class all day as a kid thinking about Part Two, which I’d catch at home right after school. “Same bat-time, same bat-channel.”

I also scooped Seasons One through Three of Batman - The Animated Series, and there’s a badass sale for those going on over at Amazon right now, surely in conjunction with the new film’s release.  By the time I was in junior high, I had moved on to coming home and catching Bruce Timm’s darker cartoon. Don’t trifle with Season Four of BTAS–it’s garbage compared to the others. But definitely pick this up if you are into Batman. The series pretty much falls into must-own territory for any serious fan.

Then there’s Batman the Movie and Batman: Gotham Knight on Blu-Ray. Fun times, although Gotham Knight was a bit of a disappointment. The Batman anime is only 76 minutes long, and roughly half of the six segments suck. I wish we could get Tim Burton’s 1989 Batman on Blu-Ray, but I have a feeling that will come out when The Dark Knight drops on the format, probably right around Christmas. Warners ain’t stupid.

It was a combination of the original TV show, the comics, BATS and the Burton flick that got me hooked on all things Batman. I liked that Batman was a self-made superhero. That he decided to become a hero, instead of becoming one because of some super power that made him indebted to help society. The biggest difference between Batman and other superhero stories, however, is its rogues gallery of villains. No other superhero has even close to the badass baddies of the Batman saga. Period.

From Frank Gorhsin’s The Riddler to Frank Miller’s (of 300 and Sin City fame) Catwoman to the evolution of The Joker (Cesar Romero to Jack Nicholson to Heath Ledger), Batman’s bad guys are untouchable as far as comic book lore goes. That’s why Bob Kane’s superhero has been, and will be, around forever. I think that’s also why the fervor around The Dark Knight is unlike anything we’ve seen since, well, the 1990 Batman. Personally, I’m not sure I have been this excited to see a film during the 18 years in between. Maybe The Fellowship of the Ring or The Phantom Menace (that one hurt). Maybe.

I think the Batmania is due to the Joker, the biggest baddie of them all, being played by one of our generation’s finest young actors, Heath Ledger, in his final role (which isn’t completely true…see here). Christian Bale is also a fantastic actor. Ever since American Psycho, I said that he was the guy who could play both Batman and Bruce Wayne. He’s pulled it off. Dude is also hotter than Hansel right now, with Public Enemies and Terminator Salvation dropping soon. Again, Bale’s Batman/Bruce combo helps, but it is the bad guys that sell this one. I think moviegoers are a little more excited about The Joker/Two-Face duo they are about to get than the Ra’s al Ghul/Scarecrow one they got served three years ago.

That brings me to the baddest of the baddies in the sports world–the NFL’s outlaws. As a tribute to The Dark Knight on the day the film releases (after three LONG years of waiting!), here’s my rogues gallery of NFL villains. Sorry, Deadspin, your boy Kite Man didn’t make the cut. It hurt me, but I had to draw the line somewhere.

NFL Wrong-Doers, Wackjobs and Weirdos Cast as Batman’s Rogues Gallery:

Bane/Shawne Merriman - A whole lotta Vitamin S turned him into a superfreak. Without his chemically altered brawn, however, he is a pretty worthless supervillain. Phenomenal strength, pedestrian intelligence. Not nearly as cool as his fans think he is.

Catwoman/Gisele Bündchen - Because I want to see her in the fucking suit. Moving on…

Deadshot/Tom Brady - A show-off prick who’s all about two things–never missing and getting paid. His wrist-mounted gun is silent, but violent, and he takes tremendous joy in killing his opponents. Tried to claim kingpin status, but, fortunately, the Gotham’s Giants were around to stop him.

Harley Quinn/Chris Henry - The Joker’s protege. Not nearly as talented, nor as dangerous, and kind of a little bitch. This dipshit is definitely a jester. What kind of criminal tries to get caught, as Henry Quinn seems to do?

The Joker/Pacman Jones - Nobody really knows how this clown got so messed up, but something happened. He has indeed brought the NFL a “new class of criminal.” The baddest of all the baddies, Pacman, er, Adam seems to have turned over a new leaf. What happened to the homicidal maniac from the Minxxx? What happened to the Clown Prince of Crime who used to make money rain? Why so serious?

Killer Croc/John Henderson - Big, monstrous and scary. Can’t you see some sewer dweller slapping Killer Croc in the face several times right before he hunts down The Caped Crusader? He even plays in croc country, and I’m pretty sure dude could wrestle crocodiles if he wanted to. Homeboy is just a monster. People aren’t supposed to be that ginormous and frightening. He can’t be human.

Mad Hatter/Clinton Portis - Only Portis could concoct this nutty of a character. He’s not really a villain, though. Actually, I take that back. I wish Clinton cared as much about my fantasy football teams as he does his characters.

Mr. Freeze/Brett Favre - I’m starting to wonder if this guy would cryogenically freeze himself in order to keep playing forever. We know you love the Frozen Tundra, Brett, but you’ve gotta give it up eventually. He’s on serious thin ice with NFL fans, and even quite a few Packers fans. It’s not that we have hearts of ice, it’s just that this hot-cold game is getting old. To everyone but ESPN and Peter King, that is. Really effing old.

Penguin/Bill Belichick - Frumpy looks? Check. Out-of-style costume? Check. Weird fetish? Check (cameras instead of umbrellas). He even has a bird-like last name. If only Belicheat was a little shorter and had webbed hands. Wak, wak wak!

Poision Ivy/Jessica Simpson - Is it just me, or did she totally screw the Cowboys’ season up? Totally, right? She claims to love her hero, but yet she is the one who poisoned him and his crew. Romo needs to hurry up and ditch this botanical byotch. I’m convinced she’s a Fembot sent by Daniel Snyder.

Ra’s al Ghul/Roger Goodell - At first, he seems like a hero, one who’s intent on cleaning up his world. Upon further review, something just ain’t right. Is it just me, or is “Goodie Two-Shoes” Goodell secretly hellbent on world domination? There’s something just not right about this dude. I swear. Don’t come crying to me when he and his League of Shadows wipes us all out.

The Riddler/Chad Johnson - I once heard a joke about The Riddler that basically went like this…The Riddler is stuck in a building that’s about to blow up, calls Batman for help, Batman asks where he’s at, but The Riddler can’t help but give him his location in the form of a puzzling riddle. He’d rather die than break out of character. Sometimes I get the same feeling about Ocho Cinco. No. 85 is definitely an E. Nygma.

Scarecrow/Rodney Harrison - This coward who hides underneath his mask, er, facemask, will stoop to any low to strike fear into the hearts of his opponents. He’s also into pharmaceuticals, but he uses his drugs on himself, not his prey.

Two-Face/Terrell Owens - Holy schizophrenia! It’s pretty much a coin flip as to what you’re going to get out of T.O., the Dallas Cowboys’ cooky star receiver. One moment he’s the shiny, clean-cut hero you’ve been waiting for; the next, he’s the twisted villain you love to loathe. We’ve even seen some emotional breakdowns (the O.D. incident, the Romo tears). On the outside, Owens is a pretty boy. On the inside, it’s much more ugly.

(Adam Best is the lead writer over at Arrowhead Addict, and has covered sports and entertainment for various blogs, websites and publications. The Best View is his fusion of sports and entertainment. The Summer Blockbuster Series will draw upon some of the summer’s most-anticipated films to offer unique perspectives on the sports world.)

Addict Angles: Surprise Starters

We’ve been talking about some of the expected positional battles recently–right guard, both safety positions, left defensive end, the No. 2 receiver spot, defensive tackle, etc. So, now it is time to hear from you on the topic…

What players have a great shot at becoming surprise starters and doing some big things during the ‘08 season? The best comments will be featured in a future post!

Quick Slants: July 16th, 2008

• Tom Brady surfs? He’d get along well with all those disinterested Chargers fans. - The Big Lead

• No more sitting through mistakes like Bryant Gumbel’s “Rick Romo.” - Projo Sports Blog

• Yes, the blogosphere is still dogpiling on Matt Jones. Here… - The Landry Hat

• …And here. - Black and Teal

• Brett Favre and Newt Gingrich? WTF? - RandBall

• Can Marc Bulger bounce back? I certainly won’t draft him again. - Turf Show Times

• Josh McCown gets nicked by a chainsaw? Hasn’t that happened in a few games as well? - Phin Phanatic

Have something you want us to feature? Send an e-mail to fsbtips@gmail.com.

Rock, Chalk, Seahawk?

No, not the Hawks from Larryville–the Seattle Seahawks. FSB recently launched 12th Man Rising, our new Seahawks blog, which got me thinking. I wish the Seahawks were still in our division, and that the San Diego Chargers were the team now playing in the NFC.

Why? One word: fans.

The Chargers generally have awful fans. The team hardly fills that dinky stadium of theirs, and most of the fans that do come are pretty lame. It’s like a cross of country club Rams fans and ex-con Raiders fans, except less knowledgeable on both accounts. I could honestly care less if the Bolts are great on the field, because win or lose their fans are not.

I can’t imagine what Kansas City would be like if the Chiefs had enjoyed the success the Chargers did the past few years. It’s obvious that the folks out there care too much about catching waves and throwing down cervezas with their fish tacos, and not enough about their NFL squad. In fact, if this Chula Vista deal doesn’t go down, San Diego might even lose the Sparklers.

I wish the Seahawks were still in the AFC West. If they were, I honestly believe that our division–not the AFC East or NFC East–would have the NFL’s best collection of fans. The 12th man is pretty serious up there in Coffee Town. Generally, I think over the long haul they’ve been much better fans than Bolts backers, and the two teams have enjoyed similar success, so that’s not a factor. Maybe I just grew up watching Steve Largent and Derrick Thomas sacking Dave Krieg seven times, but I miss playing the ‘Hawks.

What does everyone else think about the Chargers-Seahawks debate?

Quick Slants: July 15th, 2008

• Everything power rankings! We love posts like these. - The Viking Age

• Rookies most likely to…well, eff up. - Bill Palmer Sports

• The Chris Cooley Beard-Growing Contest. Hell yeah! - Chris Cooley Blog

• NFL Photoshop juxtaposition fun!. - N.E. Patriots Draft

• Bursa sac is just a damn, damn funny word. - Naptown’s Finest

• Is Tony Kornheiser really this big of a douche in real life? - Deuce of Davenport

• Last, but not least, we have a new Seahawks blog! - 12th Man Rising

Have something you want us to feature? Send an e-mail to fansided@gmail.com.

Counter Programming: Fear Factor

We interupt this regularly scheduled program–Real World/Road Rules Challenge: Brodie Bashers vs. Brodie Believers–to bring you Fear Factor: Boone or Jones?

Does heading into another season with some combination of Brodie Croyle, Damon Huard and Tyler Thigpen scare the absolute bejesus out of me? Yes, everybody knows that by now. But we’ve gone round and round and round about our quarterback situation, and it’s clear that nothing is going to be resolved on that front until well into this season. Hell, it might take even longer.

While not everybody is worried about Brodie and his back-ups, there are two presumptive starters that seem to have all Chiefs fans frazzled:

RG Adrian Jones

DT LDE Alfonso Boone

Is it just me, or is heading into the season with these two penciled in as starters the worst idea since, say, the Chiefs started the season with Chris Terry/Kyle Turley and Samie Parker as starters last season? It’s like everybody but the Chiefs already knows they aren’t going to work out.

I don’t think my cynicism is over the top either. Jones has only started 16 games during his career, all at tackle–none at guard. Yikes! Then again, he started all 16 games during the 2005 season, Herm Edwards‘ last season as the New York Jets head coach. Either Herm knows something everybody else doesn’t, or yo, Adrian, you’re in over your head. Unfortunately, I’m betting that he’ll be another in a long line of castaway flops we couldn’t mold into productive offensive lineman. I think this is a blind leap of faith.

On to The Bear. Boone was pretty good last year, for half the season at least–at defensive tackle. Boone is extremely strong, and he’s agile for a big fella, but I wouldn’t describe him as fleet of foot. I simply don’t think he’s fast enough to be a 4-3 defensive end. Maybe on rushing downs, but on third and longs? Forget about it. I still have a hard time believing that Turk McBride won’t end up at LDE before the year is over, at least on obvious passing downs.

This position move seems to come from the same school of thinking that birthed the Kris Wilson-fullback experiment. Before last season, Boone never started even half a season at DT. Suddenly, we think we can count on him for 16 games at a position he’s never played, and one that’s paramount in Gunther Cunningham’s blitz-happy defense? It’s a huge stretch.

I’m also not at all sold that Brian “The Annointed One” Johnston is the second-coming of Jared Allen. Some of us need to slow our roll on our expectations when it comes to that guy. If you ask me, it’s in Turk we trust. If he doesn’t end up playing well at the LDE spot, I expect it to be a major problem for us all season long.

Which fear factor has you more spooked: starting Jones or Boone?

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