The Chiefs are Historic Favorites vs. the Steelers in the Super Wild Card Round
By Ben Heisler
Back in Week 16, the Kansas City Chiefs closed as 10-point home favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers and beat them up at Arrowhead Stadium by a 36-10 final.
Now, three games later, oddsmakers are hanging an even longer number on the Chiefs to cover in the Super Wild Card round of the postseason.
Oddsmakers at WynnBET have posted a historic line for the Sunday night matchup between the No. 7 seeded Steelers and No. 2 seeded Chiefs; opening as 13-point favorites.
According to Clev Analytics, the opening line (of either 12.5 of 13) is the largest spread in NFL history for a Wild Card game, passing the New Orleans Saints 11-point number last year as the No. 2 seed in the NFC against the No. 7 seed Chicago Bears. The Saints squeaked out a 21-9 cover over the Bears in the matchup.
Pitt opes as 12.5 point dogs in KC. This is highest wildcard spread ever. Chi closed 11 in New Orleans last year. There have been 10 double digit dogs in wildcard history and only 2 have covered. In case someone’s reason for taking Pitt might be “its too many pts in a playoff gm”
— TA (@ClevTA) January 10, 2022
Is 13 Points Too Many for the Chiefs vs. Mike Tomlin and the Steelers?
I know the last result is not ideal for Steelers' spread backers, but I'm going to go there and state publicly that I expect this matchup to be a closer one than from back in Week 16.
Roethlisberger is playing with house money after Sunday's chaos that featured the Jacksonville Jaguars winning outright as 15-point underdogs vs. the Indianapolis Colts, as well as the Chargers and Raiders not resulting in a tie.
Furthermore, we have to discuss Mike Tomlin's long record of success in covering the spread in spots just like this.
Over his career, Tomlin since 2007, is 47-25-3 as an underdog, covering 65.3% of his games. Furthermore, Tomlin is the only coach during that time to have a winning record as an underdog; going 38-37-0 during that time.
Full disclosure... I've been awful handicapping the Chiefs this year, but don't assume another blowout goes down Sunday vs. the Steelers.@peterdewey2, @ReedWallach & I shared our early leans for #WildCardWeekend on a new @BetSided "Bet & Breakfast" pod (info below to subscribe) pic.twitter.com/aWhxjiuS7G
— Ben Heisler (@bennyheis) January 10, 2022
This season, Tomlin and the Steelers have gone 6-5 straight up as a dog, and 7-4-0 against the spread as an underdog.
It will be a serious challenge to slow down the Chiefs high-powered offense, but Tomlin's history suggests he's the coach that can at least keep it within a manageable distance.