The so important 3^rd rd preseason game is over and I have a good and a bad news. The good news: The Jaguars finally won a game, the 1^st since last December against Houston. The bad news: there were too many disturbing things in this game which concerns me. I still did not receive clear answers for every question we had before this game. For example what will happen at guard and safety?

Let’s review some quick thoughts about the game. The best new development is that without Maurice Drew; and (most of the time) Marcedes Lewis (who is injured; but is ok according to Jack Del Rio); this team has a lot of offensive fire power. The receiver core looks more than average, especially if we compared what the Jaguars had in the same area 2-3 years ago. Mike Sims-Walker, Jarett Dillard, Mike Thomas, Rashad Jennings, Brock Bolen, Montell Owens, Zach Miller and John Matthews are all capable to make plays for this team. John Matthews with his fantastic 27 yard long TD catch made a strong push for the final roster in my opinion. I don’t know at this point, who is in bigger danger because of him; Underwood or Williamson; but if we count that factor; that Gene Smith wants this team to be young as possible; Troy Williamson can worry about his roster spot more then Underwood.

And what can we say to the fullback situation? Brock Bolen and Montell Owens carried the ball plenty of times and both played with the 1^st team a lot. Meanwhile Greg Jones was used –again- only to be a blocking FB. I think more and more, if Gene Smith can get a quality safety from him, he will be traded away. Once again high salary (3;5 million $) can be a factor why a proven veteran might leave  Jacksonville. I think Brock Bolen just showed too much to take him to the practice squad this preseason. I don’t know what will be Gene’s decision about this but I hope, if he decides that the Jaguars and Greg Jones part ways, the move will be much better executed then what we saw in John Henderson’s case. Let’s not forget; Greg Jones is still one of the best blocking FB in the NFL. He has value and I would not let him go lower then a 3^rd-4^th round pick for example. So Gene; please be smart whatever is you plan to do with Greg.

Another area where I think the Jaguars will be good or even great is the DT spot. Knighton fought with 2 offensive linemen all the time; and still he could push the QB and can’t be moved from his position. Tyson Alualu had an okay night; he is collecting experience now. And Tampa’s running game went nowhere with Cadillac Williams. So stopping the run was accomplished this time. Jacob Cutrera had a sack; and I think the young UDFA rookie LB is making the case for himself to be this team’s 6^th LB. Overall I liked the all-backup LB unit in this game. Next to Russell Allen; Tony Gilbert and Rod Wilson saw plenty of time but I think they competed with each other and I think Gilbert has a better shot to be this team’s 5^th LB. Cutrera is clearly ahead of Kyle Bosworth but I expect that both battles will have a final round next Thursday against the Falcons. But now I stick with my predictions and I estimate that Gilbert and Cutrera making this team.

One brighter spot was the special teams as a whole. Scotty McGee can return kicks if needed. Adam Podlesh is all of sudden looking good. Josh Scobee has not missed a FG once again. The kickoff and punt return coverage is excellent. Ross Prunell can be proud; this unit is really special.

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The 3^rd week of the preseason means 2 things: 1; the regular season is on the horizon. 2, the final rosters will be announced soon as well. So because of that; here is Black&Teal’s projection about the ’10 Jaguars final 53 players. I explain everywhere where the situation is not a no-brainer; why I selected those players you can read in bold; I signaled the names of the starters with slanted letters. I also mention those who will making the practice squad as well.

Offense (25 players):

QB: (2) David Garrard and Luke McCown, in that order. 3^rd QB Trevor Harris maybe can make the practice squad. Maybe not…

RB: (3) Maurice Jones-Drew, Rashad Jennings, and Deji Karim. No argument here. Chad Kackert is a lock for the practice squad.

WR: (6) Mike Sims-Walker, Mike Thomas; Jarett Dillard, Troy Williamson, Tiquan Underwood, and Kassim Osgood. I think the Jaguars go with 6 wideouts this year. Clarence Denmark can make the practice squad.

TE: (3) Marcedes Lewis, Zach Miller, Ernest Wilford. Zach Potter might have a shot to make it 4; but I expect him to be a lock for the practice squad.

FB: (2) Greg Jones*, and Montell Owens. Brock Bolen is a practice squad lock. Except…

­*: Because of his high salary; and because the Jaguars use the FBs lately to just block; Greg Jones might get traded away for –most likely- a safety or maybe for a pick when the final roster will be announced! If that happens; Brock Bolen is the starting FB of this team!

Offensive line: (9) Brad Meester, Eugene Monroe, Eben Britton, Uche Nwaneri, Kynan Forney, Jordan Black, Vince Manuwai, John Estes, and Kevin Haslem. This part is the most intriguing part of the whole roster, especially at the guard position. As you can see, I think Kynan Forney will win the other staring guard spot. That means Manuwai and Justin Smiley battling for the backup position. In ideal scenario; the Jaguars would keep Manuwai and Smiley; but that would mean 5;5 million $(3 million is Vince’s salary; Smiley has reportedly 2;5 million after the paycut) would be sitting on the bench. That will not happen. Not in Jacksonville. And because of Smiley was injured almost all the time in training camp; I give my vote to Vinny. I not trust the guard position for a player who is always battling with injuries. Not to mention that the (conditional) draft pick; what the Jaguars gave for him to the Dolphins have a condition. Smiley must make the final roster or the pick is terminated! So the Jags can get back there 7^th round pick. Haslem was overexposed in the preseason; so I think the Jaguars would lose him in very short notice; if they put him to the practice squad. Many thinks Estes was better at center then Nwaneri so far; so I think he will stay on the active roster too. Daniel Baldridge; the other (very tall; and quite good) UDFA rookie T will make the practice squad. He is lock there.  

Defense (24 players):

Defensive line: (9) Aaron Kampman, Tyson Alualu, Terrance Knighton, Derrick Harvey, Larry Hart, Austen Lane, Leger Douzable, Attiyah Ellison, and Jeremy Mincey I thought a lot about who will be the 9^th D-lineman; and I voted for Mincey; because he can play DT and DE; and he is a high motor guy; and he missed this roster so many times because of injury. But if Aaron Morgan, the UDFA rookie DE/DT can make this team; that will be not a surprise either. If not he is a lock for the practice squad. Maybe Mincey and Morgan can make the team. I’M not 100% sold on Ellison yet.  UDFA rookie DT Ko(mmoyan) Quaye is a lock for the practice squad.

LB: (6) Darly Smith, Kirk Morrison, Justin Durant, Russel Allen, Tony Gilbert, Jacob Cutrera. The first 4 names are set. I think Gilbert has the best shot to be the 5^th LB; because he knows the system and he can play special teams. The 6^th will be I think UDFA rookie Jacob Cutrera; and Kyle Bosworth will make the practice squad.

CBs (5): Rashean Mathis, Derek Cox, Scott Starks, Michael Coe, Don Carey. I would love to see William Middleton as the 5^th CB; but Gene will keep his “darling” Don Carey on the roster; even with our huge concerns with his coverage abilities. Middleton is a heckuva ST player; and a solid CB. Scotty Starks is the teams nickel corner. Scotty McGee, who is also a corner; will be listed at ST.

Safety (4): Gerald Alexander, Anthony Smith, Sean Considine, Tyron Brackenridge. This was the other big position battle, -next to the guards spot-  in training camp. And you see someone is missing from the list. Yeah I think Reggie Nelson is done with this team; unless he doesn’t produce his best (2) game(s) ever in the next 7 days.  He will start in Tampa; but that is a message to Gerald Alexander. And what Tyron Brackenridge is doing on the list? He is a good CB who playing a lot at safety this training camp and  in the preseason as well. There is a Plan B for this position. I spent a few lines by trading Greg Jones for a safety. This is a position, where Gene Smith most likely adds a brand new player. If that happens; Next to Reggie Nelson, Sean Considine or Tyron Brackenridge can get waived as well. Courtney Greene is a lock for the practice squad

Special teams: (4 players)

PK Josh Scobee; P Adam Podlesh; LS Jeremy Cain; and PR Scotty McGee. No arguing here.

Practice Squad: RB Chad Kackert; WR Clarence Denmark; TE Zach Potter, FB Brock Bolen –if Greg Jones stays with the team- T Daniel Baldridge; DT Ko Quaye; LB Kyle Bosworth; S Courtney Greene; and if he not makes the final 53, DE/DT Aaron Morgan

So the final roster is set. We will monitoring the remaining preseason games; espcially the Tampa game; and see what kind of changes can we discover. But Jack Del Rio said on Wendesday; the final roster will be set after the Tampa Bay game. So I think after Saturday we will now even more accurate then now; who the final 53 will be.

Zoltan Paksa

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Somewhere in a conference room coaches are huddled discussing moves for the roster and the early starting line-up. Comments are being made like “If he plays well then….”, “I haven’t seen this from ….. “, “He deserves a shot…”. Who plays and who doesn’t isn’t Gene Smith’s call, it is Jack’s. One thing has changed for the Jaguars since Gene, jars don’t sit on the shelf very long. The days of being Scotty Starks or Montel Owens are vanishing. Game film determines your fate and Gene wants game film.

Gene Smith        Source: Yardbarker

The Tampa Bay game will be interesting not from a football perspective but from a “who is in the game” perspective. Here are some questions the coaches might be looking at.

Is Eben Britton healthy enough for Denver? He hasn’t been on the field in a long time and when he was, Derrick Harvey ate him up. Jordan Black has played and played ok at times. Is Jordan the starter for Denver until Eben gets more time?  Can Jordan earn a starting spot outright?

Is Kynan Forney the starting left guard?Justin Smiley might be what Miami thought, finished. If that is true, then is the battle between Vince Manuwai and Kynan Forney? Does Justin have a future and does that signal the end for Vince? Sounds like a soap opera but that is what is happening. See if Justin Smiley gets some game time this weekend. See how much Vince Manuwai gets. Then you make the call.

Is Jarret Dillard the third receiver? Is Troy Williamson the third receiver? Which one starts? Here is my first clue, which one was drafted by Gene Smith? One is a guy who gets open and catches the ball, one is a guy who stretches the field and sometimes catches the ball. If Troy Williamson puts on a show, that makes life real interesting.

Can Tyson Alualu play NFL football?  I know he is a starter and I know there is no question about that, but we don’t know much about him. Watching Miami, they didn’t have much problem handling him. OK, first game rookie, I understand that. First round draft choices don’t always work out and we don’t know that much about Tyson right now. I guarantee a lot of eyes will be on him.

Are the Linebackers set? I am pretty sure they are. Kirk Morrison, Daryl Smith and Justin Durant are the probable starters. Is someone playing well enough to challenge? Who is the backup? Is Russell Allen a potential starter? Let’s see how the linebackers play this weekend. Let’s see who plays this weekend.

Is Derek Cox healthy or limited?I know he is a starter but his play hasn’t been wonderful. Is he limited? Are there questions about him? Will Tyron Brackenridge play? It will be a very interesting to see if Derek is in the game and if he is targeted. If he comes out, will Don Carey continue to get a look? That will be interesting.

Well that is about all I can think of to watch. Let’s see, anything else? OK, I know safety.

Is Reggie Nelson finished as a Jaguar?I know Gerald Alexander is a starter but who else? Sean Considine? If ever there was a job to win, it is this job. They don’t seem to want Reggie to win this position yet he comes up as the leading tackler every game. It feels to me like it is anyone but Reggie, but who? It will be interesting to watch the safety play both who and how well. This is a defining game for someone in the backfield or coming to the waiver wire.

Of course we could list every position, running back, quarterback, special teams, but you already know all that. Who gets running back duty and how well David plays is always of interest. I say just watch the game, then call a friend in Tampa and tell him how it was.

- Terry O’Brien

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Gene Smith sees all the angles.  In his 18 month tenure, the autonomy granted by Wayne Weaver has been completely justified by Smith’s body of work. But GM Gene must contend with circumstances beyond the realm of player personnel.  Despite playing in Jacksonville for 15 seasons, the Jaguars are yet to establish a fanbase large enough and loyal enough to fill the stadium on an annual basis – a direct consequence of failing to field a product consistently worth the value of a season ticket. The fans need to see a winner, but building for sustained success by drafting and developing young talent takes time – something the Commissioner himself has warned is in desperately short supply for the Jaguars. So in this perfect storm of opposing pressures, what gives? Thankfully, our all-knowing GM has found a comprehensive solution where no one else was looking and with an army of NFL misfits, will save the franchise. Elite Special Teams will compensate for the Jaguars’ deficiencies of talent and experience in the upcoming season, keeping the team competitive and the fans satisfied as Smith’s draft classes mature and the foundation of the upcoming Jacksonville dynasty is solidified.

Special Teams players provide immediate return, an overlooked benefit that directly addresses the biggest threat to the Jaguars organization – time.  Rookies often play Special Teams for their first year or two in the league, either as a way of earning their way onto the roster or to contribute as they learn the intricacies of their full-time position. Maurice Jones-Drew and Mike Thomas were highly effective return men during their rookie years as they prepared themselves for the roles they were drafted for. As undrafted rookie free agents, Montell Owens and Kassim Osgood were not guaranteed the opportunities Jones-Drew and Thomas were, but proved themselves more than worthy of a roster spot as capable “gunners” and have since developed into Pro-Bowl level talents. The learning curve tends to be much shorter for Special Teams positions and though the craft can be honed like any other, will and vision are intangible abilities essential to success. Gene Smith singled out two return specialists in the 2010 draft, Deji Karim and Scotty McGee, who he coveted for their fearlessness and ability to read the blocks. If the preseason has been any indication, these two will be making a significant impact right from the opening kickoff on September 12^th.

Exceptional Special Teams also have the ability to mask shortcomings on both sides of the ball, buying time while our ’09 and ’10 draft picks settle into their roles and Gene Smith prepares to further bolster his arsenal in the 2011 draft. Let’s break it down. At its core, football is extremely simple – the Offense attempts to move the ball incrementally into scoring range by getting first downs and the Defense attempts to prevent them from doing so. Even the elite Offenses and Defenses of the NFL don’t achieve these objectives on every outing. Using a hypothetical example, if the Colts’ Offense converts a first down 80% of the time they begin a fresh set of downs, there’s a 64% (.8² =.64) chance they’ll convert consecutive first downs. If they have to convert five first downs to get into scoring range, they have only a 33% (.8⁵=.327) chance of doing that. Now the picture’s starting to come together – it’s a game of odds and therefore, field position. So when Kassim Osgood or Montell Owens flattens a punt returner inside the 10 yard line, they’re exponentially decreasing the opposing Offense’s odds of stringing enough first downs together to move into scoring range, thus helping the Defense accomplish their objective. And when Deji Karim breaks a kick return all the way to midfield, he’s putting the Jags’ Offense within two first downs of scoring range and giving them a much-improved probability of putting some points on the board.  When the Special Teams unit executes kick returns and coverage at a high level, less effort is needed to accomplish great results by the Offense and Defense.

Winning the battle of field position doesn’t just make it easier for offensive and defensive players to do their jobs, it translates into wins.  If you’re the type that likes statistical evidence, check out this table of teams’ Average Starting Position (ASP) from 2003-2008. Obviously fumbles, interceptions, and turnovers on downs factor into these stats, but Special Teams has the greatest impact on ASP. During these five seasons, the ASP for Offenses was the 30.9 yard line (obviously, this number is the same for Defense).  Teams won 67.2% of games in which their Offense’s ASP was better than the league average and 63.1% of games in which their Defense’s ASP was better than the league average. In games where both their offensive AND defensive ASP were better than the league average, teams won 74.4% of the time. When you see what a profound effect a few yards difference on every Special Teams play can have, it becomes obvious that Gene Smith didn’t bring the Osgoods, Karims, and McGees of the NFL world into Jacksonville for merely positional depth.

Can Special Teams carry the torch while our young guys develop? Will it be enough to take the Jaguars into playoff contention? We will have the answers soon.

- Andrew Hofheimer

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In the NFL, every season is a new season, every team is a new team. I remember a few years ago New Orleans made a run at the playoffs and then disappeared for a couple of years, then emerged as Super Bowl Champions. Tampa Bay was always a strong team, not any more. Detroit can’t win a game, but look out playing them this year.

Something is always different, something will surprise you for the good or the bad. So here are five things that may come true for the Jaguars and a what if scenario. You are welcome to play along. What if …..

The Jaguar receiving corp becomes really good?   What if Mike Sims-Walker is a real number one and Mike Thomas and Jarret Dillard become real threats? Marcedes can catch and is a top receiving threat as well. What if?  Well, teams couldn’t key in on Maurice Jones Drew. Suddenly linebackers can’t tell if the play is a running play or a play action. Maurice gets more room to run and breaks off larger runs. Key on Maurice and a receiver is open. We saw that against Miami, MSW across the middle. We saw it against Philly, Troy Williamson deep. Suddenly the offense opens up in wild and crazy ways. No more sitting at the games, we will be on our feet. Football parties on the weekend will be mandatory.

Brad Meester is really too old and can’t block?   The fastest way to the quarterback is a straight line. Now the guards have to close in to double team. Someone rushing is open on the end. Blitzes work better. David gets hit over and over. We struggle to hold on to the ball and turnovers in the red zone are common. We have seen this happen in 2008 and 2009. It wasn’t all Brad’s fault and he may be healthy, but behind Brad Meester is no one. The center position for the Jaguars is a risk area.

Kirk Morrison and Joe Cullen ignite the defense?  What if Aaron Kampman is causing trouble on the end and Tyson Alualu gets good and Daryl Smith and Kirk Morrison are covering the run and tight ends over the middle and Rashean Mathis has a good year? Well, now we need a nickname for our defense. All exciting defenses have a name, what would be ours? We have a problem, teal isn’t a scary color. The Teal Curtain? Nope. The Teal People Eaters? Nope. The Teal Terror? Maybe. I just know it would be fun at the stadium to root for the defense again. I hope this happens.

Tyson Alualu isn’t that good?   First round draft choices don’t always work out. What if Tyson doesn’t work out. Then runs up the middle become possible. Then third and three becomes hard to stop. The offensive line can double team other guys. We saw a little of this in the Miami game. Jonathan at Big Cat Country wrote “Joe Cullin has more work to do” and he is right. We have bet big on Tyson letting John Henderson walk. There is a risk here.

Eben Britton develops as good as Eugene Monroe?   I can’t even imagine this.  If  Eben Britton becomes the beast on the right equal to Eugene, the beast on the left, you will need three rescue squads to haul defensive players off the field. Run blocking to the right becomes almost too much to watch. Eben is a powerful man and if he gets his technique and knowledge squared away look out. Suddenly third and five become makeable putts. Suddenly David can throw on first down knowing he can make yards running. This single thing would be worth a playoff spot to the Jaguars if it comes true. A solid strong right tackle who can protect and run block to the Jaguars would have delivered a victory against Miami last year and possibly a playoff spot. I want this to happen most of all.

Your turn. What do you see that can turn this season one way or another? Head to the comments section and write your own What if…. We all want to hear from you.

- Terry O’Brien

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After Zoltan wrote that Larry Hart wasn’t living up to off-season hype, I looked through the game pictures.  I found some interesting game action I thought I would share.     

 Larry Hart came in early in the second quarter. Miami still had their starters in. Larry got to face off against Jake Long. Let’s see how he did.      

 From what I saw in the pictures, Larry Hart is a high energy rookie with a variety of moves. I would have to say he looked good in limited action. Placing him against Jake Long was a good move by the coaching staff. There are plenty of good left tackles he will face. Best to get a good sample in your first few games.  I think Larry Hart will do ok this year.  

- Terry O’Brien

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