Perhaps it’s the name change from “World Championship” to “World Cup” but the upcoming FIBA tournament feels like a bigger deal than previous non-Olympic events.
While much has been made of the absence of most of the highest profile NBA players (none of LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul or Dwight Howard were even provisionally participating), this isn’t especially surprising if one analogizes to the other World Cup – for most of the “big” soccer nations, international play is primarily a young man’s game. Though some veterans (such as Germany’s ageless Miroslav Klose) will show up as long as the national side will have them, many top players withdraw from international play around the age of thirty (as was the case for Klose’s teammate and Germany’s captain, Phillip Lahm.)
At that stage of a player’s career, rest from the past season and preparation for the one upcoming begin to take precedence over national glory. Certainly, James is due a summer off, having played the equivalent of more than a full season’s worth of playoff games during his time in Miami, not to mention the 2012 Olympics. Anthony is 30 years old, Paul is 29 with a recent history of breaking down over a full NBA season without subjecting him to an additional month-plus of international play and training. So the absence of those players shouldn’t be considered surprising or even especially notable.
Still, it’s clear the event is less important to the players than the Olympics as evidenced by the late withdrawals of Blake Griffin (due to a recently discovered back injury) and Kevin Love. Love declining to participate is particularly demonstrative as he’s not nursing an injury, or resting after a grueling playoff run; he reportedly doesn’t want to jeopardize a possible trade out of Minnesota, nor does he wish to answer questions about any such trade.
In any event, Love is out, leaving a gaping hole in the Team USA player pool. Love represents something of a platonic ideal of a big man in international play, able to hold his own on the interior defensively, dominate the boards and then rain three pointers on offense. There is no natural replacement in the squad, though the late addition of Paul Millsap somewhat addresses the need.
So who should make the final 12 man roster? Two things to remember; first is that the best team might not necessarily mean the 12 best individual players. Secondarily and more importantly is the international game rewards different skills than does the NBA. FIBA play involves a great deal of pick-and-roll, drive-and-kick style with much less of the isolation or post-up sets frequently used at the NBA level. Part of the reason Love’s will be such a big miss is how perfectly his talents mesh with this style.
With those notes in mind, five spots are all but assured barring a training camp injury: Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, Steph Curry and Paul George will likely make up 4/5ths of the starting lineup, and James Harden’s prolific offensive talent is a perfect match for a game geared towards rim attacks and 3-point shots. Millsap seems likely to be included as well, as it’s hard to imagine him accepting the last minute camp invite without some assurances of inclusion. Even without such a promise Millsap should be in the squad. He’s by no means an exact replica of Love, but his offensive versatility, toughness and defense is sorely lacking from the list of possibles.
Competing for the other six spot are Derrick Rose, Kyrie Irving, Damian Lillard, John Wall, Bradley Beal, DeMar DeRozan, Klay Thompson, Gordon Hayward, Kyle Korver, Chandler Parsons, DeMarcus Cousins, Andre Drummond and Kenneth Faried. It’s probably easiest to break down the candidates by position, looking at points, wings and bigs.
Point Guards
In addition to Curry, there are spots for 2 or 3 more lead guards. Despite missing the best part of 2 full years of action, Rose appears to have the inside track on a spot. Whether he should is another question. Even at full strength, his unreliable jumper is not ideal for international play. Wall has similar issues with his jump shot, but has been healthier and is probably the best defender among the point guard crop. Still, there seems little chance Wall makes the team unless Rose breaks down in training given Rose’s status in the Team USA program. Still, Team USA duty should not be used as rehab duty, and Wall’s ability to inject some pace and athleticism into the game from the backcourt should not be overlooked.
Lillard, though questionable in terms of defending the pick-and-roll would seem an almost perfect candidate with his range shooting, explosive ability to attack the rim, and extensive clutch chops. The last is perhaps most important, with the tournament being hosted by Team USA’s most likely championship opponent, Spain. Irving is a very similar player to Lillard, only without the level of team success. Additionally, Irving has been seen as almost self-indulgent with the ball over the last season-plus in Cleveland. Such ball-stopping is not what Team USA needs.
Who Will Make Team USA: Curry, Rose, Lillard
Who Should Make It: Curry, Wall, Lillard
Wings
After Durant (who will play a lot of power forward), George and Harden, the field is wide open for the remaining candidates. First of all, if four nominal point guards are selected, this means Curry is on the team primarily to play off the ball at the 2, which probably squeezes a spot from someone else.
The single most important thing needed from a wing at the international level is long-range shooting. This would seem to rule DeRozan out, as his anemic .305 3PFG% in 2013-14 was a career high. On the other hand, Thompson’s shooting ability combined with his on-ball defensive excellence make him a shoe-in for the squad, even if he might be next to Korver the least able to create for himself or others withe the ball.
Hayward and Parsons would seem to be competing for one spot as both offer similar styles of play, combining long-range shooting with solid ability to perform as secondary playmakers on a possession. Parsons brighter star not to mention Hayward’s woeful shooting performance last season make the spot Parsons’ to lose.
Beal is a player who’s reputation thus far outstrips his accomplishments. He still has great potential as an all-around guard, and that potential will probably see him earn a roster spot over Korver. But surely the best spot up shooter in the world is worthy of spot? Especially considering the degree to which Korver is subtly better than expected at all the other aspects of a wing player’s job.
Who Will Make Team USA: Durant, George, Harden, Thompson, Parsons, Beal
Who Should Make It: Durant, George, Harden, Thompson, Parsons, Korver
Bigs
Davis might be the only true big man to see extensive time. If he stays out of foul trouble, his ability to cover ground and block shots will astound opponents who have never faced any one quite like The Brow. On offense his mobility and soft hands make him the perfect player to utilize in the endless pick-and-roll schemes which have come to dominate individual play. Durant (and perhaps George, Parsons or even Korver) will see extensive time as the nominal power forward. But in the instance where more true bulk is needed, Millsap is a worthy addition.
Drummond is one of the easiest name to eliminate. With the Millsap replacing some of Love’s size and rebounding ability, His rawness on defense (as well as his cataclysmic free throw shooting) make him too much of a liability just for the sake of including another big body
This leaves the final spot to come down to Faried and Cousins. Faried’s enthusiasm and energy might earn him the nod. Especially compared with Cousins’ sometimes surly and explosive demeanor and the choice is understandable. Even if understandable, it would be incorrect as Boogie’s range of skills combined with his pure overpowering size mean he brings a dimension no other player on the provisional squad can offer, and he does this without the previously noted downsides attached to Drummond. If the gold medal game comes down to having a guy to bang bodies with Marc Gasol, Cousins would be sorely missed.
Who Will Make Team USA: Davis, Millsap, Faried
Who Should Make It: Davis, Millsap, Cousins
Predicted Roster: Starters: Curry, Thompson, George, Durant, Davis.
Bench: Rose, Lillard, Harden, Parsons, Beal, Millsap, Faried