With just two weeks left in the MLB season, the AL playoff picture is becoming clearer, and though the addition of the second Wild Card spot keeps playoff contenders on their toes and prevents them from setting up their starting pitching rotations for the playoffs, it’s fairly obvious who the top starting pitching combos are for each team.
Starting pitching is huge in the playoffs, and having a solid 1-2 combo at the top of a playoff contender’s rotation can back an opposing team up a wall in a hurry come postseason time, particularly in the five game Divisional Series. So here are the AL playoff contenders’ 1-2 pitching combos ranked, from worst to best. Keep in mind, most of these players are good pitchers regardless, and some teams have deeper rotations than others, but only the top two starters matter for these rankings.
I’ve kept the criteria for being an AL playoff contender at 80 wins, so apologies to fans of the Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees and Cleveland Indians, all within plausible striking distance of the second Wild Card spot, but fringe contenders at best. Here are the six serious contenders for the five American League playoff spots, and where their top two starting pitchers rank. We’ll do the National League later this week.
6. Baltimore Orioles – RHP Chris Tillman and LHP Wei-Yin Chen
To be honest, I’m not sure how the Baltimore Orioles have gotten this far with such a ho-hum starting rotation, but upon closer inspection, you see solid-yet-not-spectacular numbers from the O’s top two starters. Tillman has been solid, but he’s pretty run-of-the-mill for a team’s top starter. He’s been worth 2.0 fWAR this season, which is a career-high but he hasn’t been pitching over his head in 2014; his 2013 fWAR was 1.9, and in 2012 he was worth 1.2 wins.
That said, Tillman’s strikeout numbers are way down from last year, with 133 punch outs in 2014 compared to 179 Ks in 2013. He’s still pitching roughly the same amount of innings, with a 3.36 ERA in 187.1 IP. That’s a decent ERA, but his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is a bit higher, at 4.09. Tillman is a good pitcher, but he’s lacking compared to some of the other studs on this list.
I’m sure the Orioles would rather have offseason acquisition Ubaldo Jimenez slotted in to this spot, but Jimenez has had an awful season in Baltimore, was yanked from the rotation in mid-August, and hasn’t pitched in September. So lefty Wei-Yin Chen will take this spot, and he actually has been about as good as Tillman for the Birds, which is a good sign. Chen has a 3.59 ERA in 168 innings pitched, and has also been worth 2.0 fWAR on the season. Chen also doesn’t strike a lot of guys out (123 in 2013), but he’s a lefty, so at least Baltimore will give opposing batters a different look in both games.
5. Los Angeles Angels – RHP Jered Weaver and RHP Matt Shoemaker
The Los Angeles Angels would be much higher on this list if the team’s best pitcher, Garrett Richards, wasn’t out for the season after a gruesome knee injury, but the Halos are still in decent shape, given the circumstances. Jered Weaver is having a pedestrian season by his own standards (3.50 ERA in 200.1 innings pitched), but seems to be responding to the pressure in the second half, particularly in August and September. Weaver posted a 3.41 ERA in August and so far in September, his ERA is 2.84. Surprisingly, Weaver has only been worth 1.5 fWAR this season, but he has shown the capability in the past to elevate his production to ace-like levels.
Shoemaker is thanklessly thrust into the Angels number two slot, but the 27-year old rookie has had a solid season, with a 3.16 ERA, and has actually been worth more wins than Weaver at 1.9 fWAR. That said, he’s only pitched 128.1 innings this year, his first full season in the majors. Shoemaker is basically an unknown in a playoff start, but with LA’s offense behind him, he doesn’t have to be Greg Maddux for the Angels to win.
4. Kansas City Royals – RHP James Shields and RHP Yordano Ventura
The Kansas City Royals traded away the best prospect in its system, Wil Myers, to acquire James Shields and Wade Davis before the 2013 season, with an eye on being relevant and making the playoffs for the first time since winning the World Series in 1985. Mission accomplished on the goal of being relevant, and even better news for Royals fans is that if Kansas City does make the playoffs, it has a solid 1-2 combo, and Shields is a massive reason why that is.
Shields has a 3.13 ERA in 207.1 innings pitched, and is helping live up to his somewhat premature moniker of “Big Game James.” Shields has 164 strikeouts, and is stingy with allowing home runs (0.91 HR/9 ratio). Shields has started six postseason games all when he was with the Tampa Bay Rays, though the results have been mixed in such as small sample.
Royals manager Ned Yost might not decide to tab rookie Yordano Ventura with a potential game two start (particularly if he decides to start left-hander Jason Vargas), but Ventura has been electric in his 28 starts this year. The 23-year old has struck out 140 batters in 165 innings, and boasts a 3.27 ERA. Jason Vargas has pitched well this season, but a power arm like Ventura might fare better under the October lights.
3. Seattle Mariners – RHP Felix Hernandez and RHP Hisashi Iwakuma
At this point in the list, it’s pretty much splitting hairs between these last three combos, but that’s what my job is to do here, split hairs. So the team boasting the best starting pitcher likely to make the American League playoffs, the Seattle Mariners, is ranked third, but M’s fans shouldn’t fret too much.
King Felix is one of the top-five pitchers in all of baseball, and any opposing team matching up against him in the playoffs will have their work cut out for them, as Hernandez has been dominant. In 219 innings this year, he has a 2.14 ERA (2.59 FIP), with 225 strikeouts and he’s been worth 5.8 fWAR. Those are Cy Young-worthy numbers, and though Hernandez will have competition for the award from Cleveland’s Corey Kluber, Hernandez is in a class by himself of the legit playoff contenders.
Iwakuma isn’t a slouch himself, and the right-hander has a 3.11 ERA in 165 innings pitched, with 138 strikeouts, and he’s been worth 3.3 fWAR. That said, the 33-year old has been a mixed bag in some recent starts, including being roughed up by the lowly Houston Astros on September 10 and the lowlier Boston Red Sox on August 24. Iwakuma doesn’t have any Major League postseason pitching experience, but don’t expect the 33-year-old to be intimidated by the pressure.
2. Detroit Tigers – RHP Max Scherzer and LHP David Price
I know, kind of crazy to rank these two second on the list, especially with all the hardware they have between them. Scherzer probably isn’t winning another Cy Young this year, but he’s still been terrific, breaking the 200-innings pitched barrier for the second time in his career (last year was the first), and he’s been worth 5.1 fWAR while posting a 3.19 ERA in his 200.1 innings pitched.
The only issue with Scherzer is minor, and that’s that he doesn’t finish out games himself (he had his first complete game, a shutout, this year). A lot of this is because he racks up huge strikeout totals (he has 232 this year, just eight away from his 2013 total), but when one considers the Detroit Tigers have an inconsistent bullpen, it’s worth mentioning.
David Price is another elite-level pitcher, and he’s having another great season, posting 5.4 fWAR and a 3.26 ERA in 226.2 innings pitched. He’s been good, but slightly inconsistent himself since coming over from the Rays in a surprise deadline deal on July 31. Most of the inconsistency can really be pinpointed to two starts – a 2-inning debacle against the Yankees on August 27, and allowing five runs in a loss despite pitching into the ninth inning against the San Francisco Giants on September 6. Still, Tigers fans shouldn’t be overly concerned, as Price is still an ace, and does have postseason pitching experience.
1. Oakland Athletics – LHP Jon Lester and RHP Sonny Gray
So if Detroit’s combo is 1b, Oakland’s combo is 1a, and that’s one reason it would be a shame if they’d miss the playoffs. Jon Lester was acquired by Oakland in a blockbuster deal this July, sending outfielder Yoenis Cespesdes to Boston, and though Oakland didn’t necessarily need a dominant lefty ace such as Lester, he’s certainly lived up to his end of the bargain for the A’s.
Lester hasn’t pitched fewer innings than six since being acquired by Oakland, and on the year he has a 2.52 ERA in 199.2 innings pitched, good for a 5.6 fWAR. The icing on the cake for Lester is his playoff experience: 2.11 ERA in his 13 games from the 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2013 postseasons.
Oakland, like Kansas City, could go with a few different options for its number two starter, including another lefty in Scott Kazmir and another midseason trade acquisition in Jeff Samardzija, but I’m predicting Oakland will tab Gray, its opening day starter, for a potential game two, if the Athletics can make it. Gray was the team’s top pick in 2011, and is having another excellent season in 2014, with a 3.18 ERA in 198 innings pitched.
Gray has struck out 162 hitters this year, and has been worth 2.8 fWAR in his 30 starts. The main concern with Gray is this is sort of uncharted territory for him in terms of innings, and it’s his first full season. Gray started two games in the playoffs for Oakland last year and was terrific, with a 2.08 ERA in 13 innings, though he has a record of 0-1.