Welcome to the Armchair Quarterback’s Guide to the NFL Week 3 edition. If you’re a returning reader, thanks for checking back in and if it’s your first time reading this weekly feature I hope you’ll find it to be one of the best weekly game prediction/preview posts on the web. In case you’re skeptic, here’s my brief self promotion. Last season there was only one person on the “major” sites (ESPN, CBS, Pro Football Talk) that picked more games correctly than I did (curse you Jaworski!!!).
Thankfully, this year has started off with more success. While my 10-6 record last week was okay, my overall record of 22-10 is still better than any of the eight “experts” at CBS or the 13 “experts” at ESPN (a 14-18 record for Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter, really?). Anyway, each week I look at how the teams match up, how they’ve faired in recent head to head match ups, and mix in a little of my own observations and try to give you the best predictions possible.
Last week I missed on the following winners: Baltimore, Dallas, Cleveland, St. Louis, San Diego, and Chicago. I was still able to come away with a winning weekend thanks to successfully picking a few less popular picks like Buffalo, Carolina, and Philadelphia. I hit on my “Survivor Pool Lock of the Week” again with Green Bay’s win over the Jets, but I’ll admit I was sweating there for a while in the first half. Thankfully, Marty Mornhinweg bailed me out with that timeout in the fourth quarter.
So which teams are going to come out on top this week? Let’s start with the Thursday night matchup……..
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
The Buccaneers have been uninspiring so far this season. Josh McCown has thus far been unable to duplicate the success he had last year in Chicago filling in for Jay Cutler. While Atlanta’s defense may not be terribly imposing, I just don’t see how the Bucs are going to be able to keep pace with the Falcons in Atlanta. If Tampa couldn’t outscore the St. Louis Rams and their third string QB at home, I’m not picking them to go on the road and keep pace with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White.
Buccaneers 20
Falcons 27
San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills
There were three games in the week three schedule that I had a hard time predicting and this was one of them. The Bills have been one of the surprise teams so far this season and while I felt good about picking them to defeat Miami last week, I’m just not sure I see them going to 3-0 here. The Chargers followed up a disappointing one point loss at Arizona with an impressive home win against the Seahawks. While Buffalo’s defense has been very good overall, they’re ranked 27th in the league in passing yards allowed. While I think it will be a hard fought game, I’m taking Phillip Rivers and the Chargers to eek out a road win in this one.
Chargers 24
Buffalo 23
Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams
I have to give the Rams some props. After their absolute shellacking in week one against the Vikings I thought they were destined for a 2-14 type of season. They showed some fight last week against the Bucs, but now the question becomes if the Rams are better than I thought or are the Bucs worse? Dallas also rebounded from a poor season opener by going on the road and taking it to a Tennessee team that looked good in their opener. I hate, and I mean HATE, picking Tony Romo to go on the road against a good pass rush and win. Even now I’m questioning my decision, but the bottom line is that the Cowboys have great playmakers on their roster and I trust them to put points on the board more than I do a Rams team with questions at quarterback.
Cowboys 23
Rams 17
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
I almost picked this game as my “Survivor Pool Lock of the Week”. Ultimately, the fact that Washington’s defense has looked good so far (No. 1 in yards allowed) and the fact that Philly is coming off a short week made me go with another option. However, I still think Philly has this game in the bag. Washington’s defense has had the privilege of going up against Chad Henne and Ryan Fitzpatrick in their first two games. I think they’ll find going into Philly and having to face Chip Kelly’s offense and their dual threat of LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles a bit more challenging. I like Kirk Cousins and think he’ll be solid for Washington while RG3 is out, but they simply won’t be able to keep pace with the Eagles in this one.
Redskins 23
Eagles 37
Houston Texans at New York Giants
Apparently Bill O’Brien built up some good karma for himself while at Penn St. because his first three games as an NFL coach have consisted of the Redskins, Raiders, and now the Giants. I don’t know if the Texans are a playoff caliber team but in their first two games they have shown that they’re good enough to take care of business against teams that aren’t very good and at the risk of offending any Giants fans out there, thus far New York hasn’t been very good. The Giants look like a team that’s in desperate need of a new direction and while I respect Tom Coughlin I think he may have overstayed his welcome. I know this game is in New York, but I’m going to need the Giants to prove that they can get it together before I pick them to beat anybody.
Texans 20
Giants 13
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (*Survivor Pool Lock of the Week*)
I feel as good about this pick as any I’ve made this year. While the Saints may not have been able to find their “mojo” on defense so far this season, they’re still a pretty good football team. I just can’t see them starting the season 0-3. Both of their loses thus far have been on the road and have come down to the wire. Now they finally get to play at home where they are so tough to beat. To top it off they are going up against a Vikings team that has had to deal with the Adrian Peterson fiasco all week. While that can sometimes bond a team together, does anyone really think Matt Cassel can go on the road without a running game and outscore Drew Brees? Anyone?
Vikings 17
Saints 34
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals
The Titans are a tough team to figure out. They looked fantastic on the road in their opener against the Chiefs but then followed that up by getting handled by the Cowboys in front of their own home fans last week. Now they have to go back on the road and face a Bengals team that has looked like one of the top teams in the AFC through the first two games of the season. Even if AJ Green can’t go I still think the Bengals will be able to move the ball. The Cowboys’ DeMarco Murray had a huge game against Tennessee and I think Gio Bernard may have similar success this week. The Titans are good enough to keep it close, but I like Cincy in this one.
Titans 17
Bengals 24
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
After nearly pulling off a comeback in Pittsburgh and upsetting the Saints at home last week the Browns have probably earned the right to be favored in this one. While I’d like to see the Browns do well, I just can’t bring myself to pick them here. Brian Hoyer has done a great job so far, but I still have doubts that he can be a consistent long term answer at QB. I think he’ll have a few bad games here and there and so I’m banking on the odds that he’s due for a let down. The Browns have relied on their rushing attack a lot thus far, but the Ravens actually have allowed the eighth fewest rushing yards in the NFL through two games. I’ll take the Ravens to get a road win in a close game.
Ravens 20
Browns 17
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
A lot of fans will pick the Packers in this one because of the Aaron Rodgers factor. While I still think Green Bay is probably the best team in the NFC North, I HATE this matchup for them. Green Bay has been really suspect on the offensive line and the Detroit defensive line has to be licking their chops. The Lions clobbered the Packers in Detroit last season 40-10. While that was without Aaron Rodgers, they still abused their offensive line holding Eddie Lacy to 16 yards on ten carries and sacking Matt Flynn seven times. While Aaron Rodgers will keep the game much closer, I don’t think they’ll be able to keep pace with the Detroit offense.
Packers 23
Lions 30
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Much like the New Orleans Saints, I think the Indianapolis Colts are still a good team despite their 0-2 record and have a hard time believing that they’ll drop to 0-3, especially when they’re going up against an inferior opponent. I simply don’t understand why the Jaguars don’t get Blake Bortles on the field. Not only would it help him gain valuable experience, but he clearly looked like the better QB in the preseason. Bottom line, do I think Chad Henne and Toby Gerhart will drop Andrew Luck and the Colts to 0-3 on the season? No, no I don’t.
Colts 30
Jaguars 17
Oakland Raiders at New England Patriots
I know there are at least a few diehard Raiders fans that read this column every week and I have CRAZY respect for people that religiously follow a team despite repeated years of disappointment. As a Chiefs fan, I can relate. While I think Derek Carr is their long term solution at QB, it looks like another long season in Oakland this year. The Raiders are ranked 31st in offense in both yards and points per game and their defense is dead last in the NFL in rush defense, giving up exactly 400 yards in two games. Tom Brady may not be what he once was, but they’ll have enough offense to take care of the Raiders at home. Look for the NE running backs to get a lot of carries in this one.
Raiders 13
Patriots 27
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
This game is the second of three games that I had a terrible time predicting. Like Cleveland, Arizona has probably earned the right to be favored here, but just like with Cleveland I can’t bring myself to pick them. Do I think the Cardinals are a very good team? Yes, but when I ask myself what seems more likely the Cardinals going to 3-0 and dropping the 49ers to 1-2 or the 49ers evening their records up at 2-1, the later seems more likely. Plus, the 49ers have beaten the Cardinals four straight times including two wins in Arizona, one of which was week 17 last year with the playoffs on the line. Will I be surprised if the Cardinals win? No, but I’m taking the 49ers by a hair.
49ers 21
Cardinals 20
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
I think this Super Bowl rematch will be a lot closer game than last year’s championship ended up being. The Seahawks had their worst game in a while last week in San Diego and while that game showed they were beatable I have hard time seeing them dropping two games in a row. The Broncos are good enough to beat any team in the NFL, but when the game is in Seattle and with how soundly the Seahawks beat them last year I have a hard time picking against them in this one.
Broncos 23
Seahawks 27
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
I’m an admitted Chiefs homer, but I’ll try to set that aside here. Do I think my beloved Chiefs can win this game? Yes, I think it’s possible. However, with all the injuries that they’ve sustained (they’re without six projected opening day starters including Pro Bowlers Derrick Johnson, Eric Berry, and Jamaal Charles) they don’t look like the smart pick here. The Dolphins are at home where they knocked off the Patriots in week one and I’m worried that their pass rush may be too much for a suspect KC offensive line. So while my heart is screaming otherwise, I think the smart pick here is to go with Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins. Sigh…..
Chiefs 20
Dolphins 23
Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers have been REALLY impressive through two games. They were already a popular pick to regress after a great 2013 season, but with Cam Newton missing week one and Greg Hardy missing week two against the Lions (and now out indefinitely) they’ve been a trendy team to pick against. Thankfully, I’ve stuck with them so far in my picks and I’m not going to change that this week. The Steelers got pushed around a little bit against the Ravens last week and it’s only going to be tougher sledding this week when they go into Carolina to face one of the best defenses in the NFL. I like the Panthers to improve to 3-0 in this one.
Steelers 13
Panthers 20
Chicago Bears at New York Jets
The final game of week three is also the third and final game that I struggled to pick a winner in. I think the Bears are the better all around team and they showed some real heart last week coming back against the 49ers. However, the Jets have a really good defensive front and have been great running the ball on offense. In fact, through two games the Jets are ranked number one in the NFL at both rushing the ball on offense and stopping the run on defense. With the Bears giving up 160 yards per game rushing and 5.3 yards per rush I think the Jets will be able to control the clock and force Jay Cutler into a turnover or two. I’m taking the Jets in a close one on Monday night.
Bears 16
Jets 17
So there are your Armchair Quarterback picks for week three of the NFL season. Any games you think I’m completely off base on? Do you see any big upsets on the schedule that the rest of us may be overlooking? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below.
Thanks for reading.
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