NBA: 7 players with the most to lose in 2014-15

In free agency, teams can overlook one bad season in the NBA. Everyone’s optimistic, there’s hope around the franchise, yada, yada, yada.

Have two bad seasons, and immediately, some teams back away. Is there a trend forming? Is it just a bad situation? Is the player done?

Add injury problems on top of two bad seasons in the NBA, and most teams will stay away from a player, especially if they’re getting up there in age. Have two bad seasons in a row, injury problems, and are aging very poorly, then there’s virtually no chance for most players to continue in the NBA. The obvious exceptions are the without-a-doubt Hall-of-Famers who stick around in the league too long, like Allen Iverson, Kevin Garnett, and Michael Jordan (Wizards edition).

There’s always one player that makes you think, “Why isn’t anyone going after him?” And, for that one player, there’s also a handful of players that make you think, “Why is anyone going after him?” It’s a give and take relationship for us fans.

Because this same scenario happens season after season, I’ve ranked the top-7 players in the NBA with the most to lose this season for a variety of reasons. Injuries are a main concern, and obviously, age factors into the equation, as well. But, there are plenty of other variables that play into these decisions. I’ll get to those shortly.

Oh, and of course, when I use the word “lose,” I’m referring to the money a player is losing. I just wanted to clear that up in case someone thought this was a like an NBA Biggest Loser-type column. I’m definitely going to do that at some point, but today let’s talk about contracts, free agency, and players who have the most to lose next season.

All seven ranked players are going to be in contract years, meaning their current contract expires at the end of this season, and all seven are in make-or-break situations with their careers.

When the stakes are the highest, who is going to rise to the occasion? That’s what we’ll find out with these seven players in 2014-15.

7. Tyson Chandler, Dallas Mavericks

I loved the Mavericks’ trade to get Chandler back from the Knicks. Head coach Rick Carlisle found the best way to utilize Chandler is 2011 when the Mavs won the NBA title, and I’m very curious to see if Carlisle can get the effort, energy, and performance from Chandler once again.

Of course, that starts with Chandler getting healthy (which is the first of the many times I beat the “injury concerns” dead horse). Chandler has missed 25 games last season with the Knicks and 16 more games in 2012-13. That’s not exactly problematic for a player who has played as long and as hard as Chandler, but there is reason to be concerned.

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Chandler is 31 years old and entering his fourteenth season in the league. The years of Chandler receiving max contract offers are over, but at least he got paid while he could. This season, Chandler will be making $14.6 million in the final year of his contract.

Just because Chandler won’t be getting top dollar offers from around the league, it doesn’t mean he’s washed up at all. Dallas and Carlisle got Chandler a huge payday once before; why can’t they do it again? There’s no reason to think the 2013 Defensive Player of the Year can’t replicate his success from 2011 and be the cornerstone of the Mavericks’ defense next season.

Obviously, it depends on whether Chandler can stay healthy, but if he can, there’s a good chance the Mavs take care of Chandler next summer. I mean, they definitely didn’t trade away guards Jose Calderon and Shane Larkin for an overweight Raymond Felton. This trade was about Chandler.

Chandler has the ability to add a completely different dynamic to this Dallas team. If he succeeds, he could stay in Dallas for the rest of his career. If he fails or misses a ton of games due to injuries, Chandler might have a hard time finding a spot in a rotation for many teams next season.

6. Rudy Gay, Sacramento Kings

Gay is the most intriguing player in this ranking because he’s so overpaid to begin with. Gay is making $19.3 million this season. $19 MILLION!

For a guy who shoots 45 percent from the field and 34 percent from three-point range, that’s one of the worst contract in the NBA.

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Gay played better after he was traded from Toronto to Sacramento 18 games into last season. In Sacramento, Gay shot 48 percent from the field and averaged 3.1 assists per game, the best assist average of his entire career.

Coming off a good performance with Team USA at the FIBA World Cup, Gay heads into the 2014-15 season with a chance to prove he can be a team player and help turn a franchise around.

In the past, Gay could only be described as the NBA’s version of Miley Cyrus, swinging from team to team on top of a giant wrecking ball. It’s no surprise both teams Gay played for, the Grizzlies and Raptors, improved  immediately after Gay had left the team. Both, the Raptors and Grizzlies made the playoffs the season they traded Gay.

Gay looks better with the Kings, and he’s taking better shots.

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Ultimately, I doubt Gay stays in Sacramento after this season, unless it goes much better than expected. The Kings are a mess; no one knows what they’re doing. Gay probably won’t stay in that hell-hole unless the Kings overpay him, which is set up perfectly to happen, so I could definitely see it happening, but it definitely should not happen.

Eventually, Gay will want to win… or should want to win. And, that’s probably not going to happen in Sacramento for at least another four seasons, by my estimation. If Gay wants to win and could embrace a lesser role, there will be teams looking for a stretch-four or sixth man.

I think I’m a little higher on Gay than most people, but only because of his performance with Team USA. Gay wasn’t hoisting 22-footers; he came off the bench, did his job, and looked genuinely excited to be a part of the team. If Gay keeps that attitude, I think he has a bright future.

Plus, Gay’s definitely not afraid of taking the big shots:

Teams will be interested in Gay in free agency, no doubt. If Gay is willing to play for $8 million or so per season, a fringe contender like Dallas or a tier-below team like Phoenix could be in the mix for Gay. This season, Gay just has to prove he’s a team player who’s willing to commit to play defense, rebound, and not take 20-foot fadeaways, and someone will want Gay.

If Gay reverts back to his old long-two, no-defense strategy we saw for so long, Gay could miss out on a lot of money, even if that means staying in Sac-Town.

5. Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies

Honestly, I can’t picture the scenario in which Gasol leaves Memphis. There’s too much history between the two for Gasol to throw that all away, and the Grizzlies can pay Gasol more than any other team, which they’ll do because he means everything to the team.

Last season, Gasol only played in 59 games because of a sprained MCL. The Grizzlies finished 10-13 without Gasol in the lineup; he is the beating heart of the Grizzlies. Obviously, injuries are a huge risk when giving someone a max contract, but the Grizzlies will pay Gasol regardless.

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Honestly, I’m less concerned with the Gasol’s injury risk and more concerned with what I saw in the FIBA World Cup, especially in Spain’s loss to France. In the game, Gasol finished 1-of-7 from the field for only three points in the game. He looked slow against Boris Diaw and the second-round pick of the Denver Nuggets, Joffrey Lauvergne.

One thing the Grizzlies do have to consider is Gasol’s age, as he turns 30 years old in January. We all know Father Time is undefeated; everyone one is going lose that step eventually. If history is any indication, some big guys just lose that step at a certain point, and they never get that step back.

It happened to his brother, Pau, to some extent.

In the NBA, Gasol has shown no signs he’s getting older or slower, but in the FIBA quarterfinals against France, he did. If Gasol’s play starts to slip a bit and it looks like he’s lost a step, it will be very interesting to see how the Grizzlies decide what to do. Their decision could cost Gasol a pretty penny, as they say.

4. Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics

Between 2010-2013 (when he tore his ACL), Rondo was one of the best point guards in the NBA. Over that span, Rondo averaged 11.3 assists per game. He was so much fun to watch.

Granted, he was playing with three Hall-of-Famers, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen for most of that time, but still, Rondo was awesome. Then, he tore his ACL, the Garnett and Pierce were traded, and the Celtics were in full rebuilding mode.

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Rondo finally returned and played in 30 games last season. In those 30 games, Rondo was a shell of his former self. He averaged 11.7 PPG on 40 percent shooting and his assists dipped to 9.8 per game. Those are not max contract numbers.

Rondo was coming off a serious knee injury, so obviously he wasn’t going to be himself right way. It takes time to get back in the groove. And, quite frankly, the Celtics were awful last season. Who knows what Rondo’s effort level was game after game? Rondo’s a guy who has only known winning in the NBA; I have to believe that was at least part of his struggles last season.

This season, Rondo has a lot to prove, and it starts with his health.

If Rondo just shows up next season, he’s probably going to get a max offer from someone based on his past performance and All-NBA potential. Oh, and the Knicks have cap space and are dying to spend it all in one place.

For that to happen, Rondo has to stay healthy. If he suffers another knee injury, Rondo can kiss that max offer goodbye and start looking for deals in the four-year, $48 million range, but I doubt a team would even commit to a long-term deal with Rondo.

Rondo’s injury history is basically the only thing that could cause teams to be wary of him in free agency or in a potential trade with the Celtics. If Rondo performs like he did in those 30 games last season and shoots 40 percent from the field, teams might hesitate to give Rondo the max contract he deserves. As we saw with Eric Bledsoe and Greg Monroe, when teams hesitate in free agency, usually it doesn’t end well for the free agents.

3. Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons

This offseason, Monroe became the best player in NBA history to sign a qualifying offer in restricted free agency, which means he’s headed back to the Detroit Pistons for this season before becoming an unrestricted free agency.

It’s unfortunate it’s come to this for Monroe because he’s actually a pretty good player who has been stuck in terrible situations his whole career. For Monroe, taking the one-year, $5.5 million qualifying offer from the Pistons isn’t a terrible risk because he’s never had any injury problems and has only missed three games in his four seasons in the league. Some might say Monroe’s due for an injury, but Monroe betting on himself is much less risky than, say, Eric Bledsoe.

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After the season, Monroe enters a free agent market that’s loaded with bigs, and Monroe, in particular, doesn’t move the radar for a franchise looking to make a big move. Is he a good player? Absolutely. Could he contribute for a contender? No question. But, does the addition of Monroe make a team a title contender? No, no, and more no.

I can’t think of any fringe contender that becomes a contender with the addition of Monroe.

Although already a contender, Oklahoma City would be the most intriguing spot for Monroe. They need a low-post scorer, but they’d likely want Monroe to take a pay cut for the “opportunity” to play with Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka. OKC is not going to pay top price for Monroe.

Monroe is a good player with the potential to be even better in the right system, but his signing doesn’t move the needle, as Colin Cowherd would say. Players that don’t move the needle don’t usually get paid in the NBA. Monroe is going to need a killer performance this season to get paid in free agency.

2. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers 

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The Portland Trail Blazers have already committed to making a contract with Aldridge work after the season, and Aldridge has also committed to signing with the Blazers but will do so after the season.

The reason Aldridge will have to wait until after the season is because the current CBA doesn’t allow players like Aldridge to make as much money as they could if they hit the open market and took a max contract as a free agent.

In Aldridge’s case, if he took an contract extension from the Blazers, it would be for three-years, $55 million. By becoming a free agent, Aldridge can sign a five-year, $108 million contract, so it’s fairly obvious what Aldridge should do.

While it makes sense for Aldridge to become a free agent, he’s also taking a risk by not signing an extension. Say, for example, Aldridge gets seriously injured this season. The Trail Blazers would have some major decisions to make, and remember, the Trail Blazers and Aldridge haven’t had the best relationship throughout his entire career. A few years ago, Aldridge reportedly was seeking a trade.

What would the Blazers do if Aldridge was hurt? The two sides may have an agreement right now to give Aldridge a max contract in free agency, but things change everyday in the NBA. Of course, the Trail Blazers wouldn’t let him walk away completely, but would they hold up their end of the bargain?

If the Blazers did back out of their end of the bargain, Aldridge could miss out on millions of dollars.

That’s the risk Aldridge is willing to take. Hopefully, it works out for him and the Trail Blazers.

 1. Eric Bledsoe, Phoenix Suns?

I hate ranking Bledsoe as the player who has the most to lose this season, but with his uncertain future and injury issues, Bledsoe has to perform well in 2015. It’s so risky playing for the qualifying offer of $3.7 million; I just don’t see what other option Bledsoe has at this point.

Of course, there’s the possibility of the sign-and-trade, which has been discussed at length since the news broke that Minnesota was going to offer Bledsoe a max contract. The only problem with that deal is that there was no way Minnesota could make that deal work with their current cap situation. At this point, I think I have more to offer Bledsoe than Minnesota does, and I don’t even have any money… Think about that for a second.

Other than that rumor, teams waiting to make a run at Bledsoe are few and far between. Ultimately, I see Bledsoe either taking Phoenix’s four-year, $48 million offer or take the qualifying offer and play this season on the cheap. Either way, Bledsoe should be in Phoenix by the time Oct. 1 rolls around, the day Bledsoe must sign the qualifying offer from Phoenix.

Realistically, I don’t see how sitting out the season helps Bledsoe in his quest to get a max contract. He still wouldn’t have the proof that he can stay healthy, and he would miss an entire year of basketball. Even Michael Jordan said it was difficult coming back and playing after taking so much time off, and he was the best player to ever play.

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In his first four seasons, Bledsoe has missed 89 games. If he takes the qualifying offer and plays, he risks an even lesser deal than what the Suns are offering him now.If he had any agent at all, Bledsoe would have taken the deal and would be gearing up for the season.

Instead, he’s possibly going to miss out on an extra $10-20 million on his next deal. If his knees act up again this season, I don’t see anyone offering Bledsoe more than $7 million per season. That’s a lot of money to gamble on yourself, and Bledsoe can thank Rich Paul for this whole mess.

This pretty much sums up this summer for Bledsoe:

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