Raptors, Rockets among NBA teams that will regress in 2014-15

3. Houston Rockets

If you only look at Houston’s starting lineup, you’d think I had gone insane putting them in this category. Not only do the Rockets have the league’s best shooting guard in James Harden, but they also have arguably its best center as well with Dwight Howard. Patrick Beverley needs to fine-tune his offense, but he’s a terror on defense and Trevor Ariza represents an immediate upgrade from Chandler Parsons as far as wing defense and three-point shooting are concerned.

That being said, Ariza is not the long-term solution like Parsons might have been, and the end result of Daryl Morey’s failed gambit for Chris Bosh also included losing Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik, two incredibly valuable reserves whose absence leaves Houston awfully shorthanded on the bench. As high as I am on Terrence Jones, missing out on Bosh could be the difference between being a real contender and just another good team in the brutal West.

Is Houston’s starting five good enough to carry them to the postseason? It’s certainly possible. But with a bench of only Donatas Motiejunas, Francisco Garcia, Jason Terry, Troy Daniels, Isaiah Canaan and Nick Johnson to turn to, the Rockets may have problems putting points on the board OR defending when the starters need a breather. In any case, you certainly shouldn’t expect Houston to lock up another No. 4 seed this year.