A complete division breakdown of the NFL playoff race. Whose bubble is about to burst?
With few standout teams and a ridiculous amount of parity, the last six weeks of the NFL season are going to be must-see TV.
I don’t remember a season where there were this many teams had an actual chance of making the playoffs, not just a mathematical chance, but a real possibility of making the playoffs. Of the 32 NFL teams, 19 of those teams are within two games of the division lead.
Two games back with six to play isn’t an ideal spot to be in, but they’re right in the mix for the NFL playoffs. And, that’s also just for the division lead. The wildcard race is even tighter, but it won’t officially take shape until some of these division battles sort themselves out.
Right now, only two teams have clinched playoff spots, the Arizona Cardinals (9-1) and the New England Patriots (8-2).
The Cardinals have a three-game lead in the division with games against Seattle (twice) and San Francisco, as well as Kansas City, who also looks to be a playoff contender.
New England has a two-game division lead, and they’re the Patriots. Unless there is a major injury to one of their key guys, the Patriots go “next man up” as well as anyone in the NFL, and they will survive.
So, two playoff spots are locked up, that still leave 12 up for grabs. For that reason, I’ve gone division-by-division and laid out the scenario for each of the bubble teams to make the playoffs.
Let’s start with the AFC East!
Next: Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins (6-4) and Buffalo Bills (5-5)
New England has two-game lead in the division, as I mentioned, but it feels like a lot more with the way the Patriots are playing lately, laying 43 and 42 points on the Broncos and Colts, respectively, in their last two games.
Ultimately, that means Miami and Buffalo will be playing for a wildcard berth in the playoffs.
What It Will Take For Miami:
To make the playoffs, Miami is going to have to continue to rely on its defense to come up with huge stops. In their last five games, the Dolphins are only allowing 11.2 points per game.
With games against at New England, at Denver, and home against Baltimore, the Dolphins have to win one of those games, and then take care of business in two games against the Jets and another against Minnesota. That would give Miami a 10-6 record on the season, which just might be good enough– with some tiebreakers– to snag the last wild card spot.
What Will It Take For Buffalo:
To even be considered, Buffalo will have to go 10-6, possibly 11-5 to even make the playoffs. That means they’re going to have to win out or lose just one game to have a shot at the playoffs. With games at New England, at Denver, and home against Green Bay, that seems like a tall task when Kyle Orton is the quarterback.
No offense to Orton, but he’d have to beat three of the top four quarterbacks in the last six weeks of the season to keep the Bills in the playoff chase. That’s not going to happen.
Prediction:
Although I like Miami, I don’t like the remainder of the schedule. Going on the road to New England and Denver when the games actually matter to the Patriots and Broncos will be the death of the Dolphins. Oh, and the Bills aren’t making the playoffs, but this season has been a nice base for the future.
Next: The Cluster of AFC North
AFC North
Through ten games, it’s unbelievable to think this entire division is separated by the Cincinnati Bengals’ tie with the Carolina Panthers. That tie, and not a loss, has put the Bengals (6-3-1) on top of the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4), Baltimore Ravens (6-4) and Cleveland Browns (6-4).
This division is crazy; it’s basically the NFL’s version of the NBA’s Southwest division, which has five teams that can realistically make the playoffs.
Week to week, these four teams have been some of the most inconsistent teams in the entire league.
After scoring 94 points combined against the Ravens and Indianapolis Colts, the Steelers lost to the New York Jets. The Bengals were shut out by the Colts earlier this season. The Ravens held the Steelers to six points in their first matchup before giving up 43 points in the second meeting. The Browns lost to the Jaguars by two-plus touchdowns and then beat the Bengals 24-3 three weeks later.
There is no rhyme or reason for what is going to happen in this division.
What It Will Take For Baltimore:
For Baltimore to win the division, Joe Flacco is going to have catch fire like he did in the 2012 playoffs. The Ravens have a good shot at taking home the division crown, but it’s going to take Flacco to carve up opposing defenses to get the job done. Baltimore has games against San Diego, New Orleans, and Jacksonville left on the schedule. All of those team have weak secondaries. If Flacco can throw the Ravens to victory in those three games, the Ravens would likely only need one more win in their other three games against the Colts, Browns, and Texans to at least tie for the division title.
What It Will Take For Pittsburgh:
The Steelers have the weakest schedule remaining with games against Atlanta, New Orleans, and two games against the Bengals. If the Steelers just take care of business against the Falcons, and Saints, like they should, and then split with the Bengals, the Steelers should be the team representing the AFC North in the playoffs.
What It Will Take For Cincinnati:
The Bengals, although they have the slightest lead, have the toughest schedule remaining. Of their last six games, the Bengals have four road games against the Steelers, Buccaneers, Browns, and Texans. On top of that, the Bengals matchup in Week 16 against the Denver Broncos, which could have playoff or playoff-seeding implications for both sides. Likely, the Bengals will need to win five of their next six games to lock up the division out right, but going 4-2 seems more likely.
What It Will Take For Cleveland:
While they’re still in the mix, I don’t see Cleveland winning the division. Maybe, it’s the fact that Cleveland hasn’t been good in almost my entire life, but I can’t envision the scenario in which the Browns win the division.
As all Cleveland sports fans know, the odds are never in their favor. The Browns play four out of the last six on the road. This season, the Browns are 2-2 on the road. If they keep up winning at that pace, they’ll still need to win their last two home games against the Colts and Bengals to finish 10-6.
Prediction:
At the beginning of the season, I thought the Bengals would win the division, and I’m going to stick with that pick because they have that half-game lead over everyone else. At least two of these teams will finish the season 4-2, and the Bengals will be one of them. That tie against Carolina will be the difference in their season.
Next: The Disaster of the AFC South
Indianapolis Colts (6-4) and Houston Texans (5-5)
This division makes me want to puke.
The Colts are the best team, by far, but I don’t even think the Colts are that good. Their best win is over a Cincinnati team without A.J. Green. The Texans are hanging around, basically, because of Arian Foster and J.J. Watt. The Colts should win the division, but then again, you never know in the NFL.
What It Will Take For The Colts:
The lack of competition in this division is astounding compared to the rest of the league. The Colts basically have to make sure they win one more game than the Texans, who are probably an 8-8 team at best. Other than the Cowboys, the Colts only have the Texans, Browns, Jaguars, Titans, and Redskins to close out the season. That’s easily the easiest schedule for a team trying to win the division not in the NFC South.
What It Will Take For The Texans:
The Texans will probably need to win-out to win the division, which includes a game against the Colts they can use to tie the Colts atop the division. The Colts have such an easy schedule, and the Texans isn’t much harder, if at all.
Prediction:
The Colts are going to win this division, and that’s stupid because their best win in the entire season is going to be against the Bengals.
Next: Wait... Denver MIGHT NOT Win The Division?
Denver Broncos (7-3), Kansas City Chiefs (7-3), and San Diego Chargers (6-4)
This division just got a whole lot crazier in about two seconds.
The Broncos have dropped two of their last three games, both losses coming on the road, and they still have road games against the Chargers and Chiefs in the division. The Chiefs are the second-hottest team in football with five straight wins and have a blowout victory over the Patriots on their resume. Even after losing 37-0 against the Dolphins, the Chargers have climbed back up on the saddle and are only one game back in the division.
This division is wild!
What It Will Take For The Broncos:
One bad loss in three years is probably okay for the Denver Broncos, who lost to the St. Louis Rams 22-7 on Sunday. Now, the Broncos have to win at least four of their next six games to win the division and possibly even more. On top of that, the Broncos have one of the hardest schedules left in the league and play five teams with .500 or better records, the Dolphins, Bills, Chargers, Chiefs, and Bengals.
Can you imagine if the Broncos didn’t make the playoffs? That would be INSANE with how stacked the offense is.
What It Will Take For The Chiefs:
Surprisingly, the Chiefs have the second-best defense in football and are only allowing 17.1 PPG, which makes up for their middling offense. The Chiefs also have the easiest schedule left in their division, with two games against Oakland. The Chiefs still have matchups with Denver, San Diego, Pittsburgh, and Arizona left. If they can win just one of those games, the Chargers will be at 10-6 and likely in position for another wildcard berth.
What It Will Take For The Chargers:
San Diego is going to have to find what was working for them so well early in the season. They have to run the ball, keep the other offense in check, and allow their defense to be on field as little as possible. Lately, their running game has struggled, they haven’t sustained possession, and they haven’t helped their weak defense.
The Chargers are going to need to win games against Kansas City and Denver to have any shot in the division, and they’ll likely have to win five of their next six.
Prediction:
I think Kansas City is going to win the division. They’re the hottest team right now, and they have the team built to succeed when the weather changes to freezing temperatures and snow. If anything, the Chiefs have proven last year was not an aberration; they’re a really good football team. With a replacement to spell Jamaal Charles or replace him if he gets injured in Knile Davis, the Chiefs aren’t a dominant team, but they’re deeper than they were last season. They’re better suited to win more games than the Broncos down the stretch.
Next: Lions, Packers, No Bears, Oh My
Green Bay Packers (7-3) and Detroit Lions (7-3)
The NFC North always seems like it’s a tough race, and this season is no exception.
Initially, I thought the Packers didn’t have a chance because of how poorly they were playing to start the season. Fast-forward seven weeks or so, and the Packers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL and are destroying (almost) everyone in their path.
The Lions, on the other hand, are squeaking out victories week after week, except against a team just a tad better at squeaking out victories than them, the Arizona Cardinals.
What It Will Take For The Packers:
While the Packers’ offense has gone full-throttle in recent weeks, averaging 54.0 points in their last two games, I still don’t trust their defense. The Packers can’t drop 50 on everybody, but they’ll need their defense eventually. The Packers do have a very easy schedule the rest of way with games against Minnesota, Buffalo, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay remaining. The Packers also take on the Patriots and face the Lions in Week 17, but the Packers should easily get to 11-5.
What It Will Take For The Lions:
OFFENSE!
I know the Cardinals’ defense is good, but six points was all Matthew Stafford, Calvin “Megatron” Johnson, and Golden Tate could muster… That’s just not good enough. The Lions have a fairly easy schedule down the stretch, but they’re going to have to steal a game from the Packers in Week 17 and, possibly, another against the Patriots in Week 12 to win the division.
Prediction:
It think the Lions are going to win the division. I don’t know why, but something about the Packers strikes me as phony. Maybe, it’s that I can’t believe Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are running circles around the league. I don’t know. The Lions got out played in Arizona, but I don’t even think the Packers were winning that game, not with how good Arizona’s defense has been playing.
Next: Cowboys vs. Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles (7-3) and Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
With two games against each other left on the schedule, Philadelphia and Dallas are in a very unique position. If they both take care of business, they can control their own destiny, head-to-head. It’ll be like a two game series for the playoffs. If one team can win both games, they’ll basically lock up the division, if everything else goes accordingly.
What It Will Take For Philadelphia:
Mark Sanchez has to play better than he did against the Packers, and the defense has to play better than it did against the Packers. I don’t know if Philly is a Super Bowl team, but they’ve got to find their offensive rhythm with Sanchez as the quarterback. If it was me, I’d suggest running LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles more often.
What It Will Take For Dallas:
Three things:
1. The defense has to hold up.
2. Tony Romo has to be healthy.
3. DeMarco Murray needs to carry the ball 25 or more times per game.
Do all three of those things, Cowboys, and you’ll make the playoffs.
Prediction:
Call me a hater, but I still don’t believe in the Cowboys’ defense. I don’t think they can hold up for a full season, and that means they’re about break right in time for their game with the Eagles that could determine the division. Philadelphia has their flaws, sure, but they’re definitely the safer bet.
Plus, are we really to the point of trusting the Cowboys and Tony Romo in big games yet?
Next: The Dumpster Fire of the NFL
NFC South
This video sums up the season for the NFC South:
Sorry, but I have no reasonable analysis for the NFC South.
There’s no way a team from this division should have a place in the playoffs. I strongly support an eight-win minimum for the playoffs.
Prediction: Who cares?
Next: The Best Division in Football
Seattle Seahawks (6-4) and San Francisco 49ers (6-4)
Maybe it’s a tad too early to call, but I think Arizona is going to win this division, and here’s why:
The Cardinals aren’t losing their last six games; it’s just not happening. Even if the Cardinals go 1-5, the Seahawks and 49ers have to go 5-1, which is going to be increasingly difficult because they play each other twice. The Seahawks also have to play the Cardinals twice, and San Francisco plays the Cardinals once.
It’s possible for the Cardinals to crumble down the stretch, but they’re not going to. Even if they lose both to Seattle and another to San Francisco, they’ll likely only have to win one of their last three games, if Seattle and San Francisco split their head-to-head matchups.
Prediction: The NFC West is coming up all Cardinals, but the winner of Seahawks-49ers also gets in. If they split, maybe neither get in.
Next: NFL: 5 Darkhorse MVP Candidates
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