[table id=1327 /]
Do not let the table fool you. Dallas Keuchel is the ace of this staff. His SIERA of 3.09 highly correlates with excellent future performance. The 3.09 SIERA ranked 14th in MLB, which is better than Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto in 2014. Plus, Keuchel’s 63.5% groundball rate was far and away the best in Major League Baseball. Dallas Keuchel could be your SP3 and he may not be that far away from the second coming of the great Brandon Webb.
Collin McHugh also had a spectacular season with his 2.73 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 157 K’s in 154.2 IP. Even though he paired those great fantasy numbers with an excellent FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, McHugh runs the risk of regression with his sky high 24.1% line drive rate and the fact that his HR/FB% was cut in half from his previous career rate of 18%.
While I do believe that the HR/FB rate is sustainable, the liners may hurt Collin McHugh in 2015. Even if there is some regression, McHugh could fill in nicely to the back of your fantasy rotation. He has decent potential in both ERA and strikeouts.
The closer situation in Houston is still lousy. Chad Qualls is a bottom five closer for all fantasy purposes. Plus, I think that Pat Neshek and Luke Gregerson are the top two arms in the Astros’ bullpen. I think the rebuilding Astros may finally turn the corner and fight to go .500 with their uniquely built team.
Tanner Bell of Smart Fantasy Baseball has created all of the projections seen in this post. You can read about how he develops his projections here. His projections are invaluable to this site. You can also visit his site at www.smartfantasybaseball.com.