Are the new look Houston Astros for real?

Glass Half Empty: Why the Astros’ start won’t last

Now, even though it’s less fun, let’s be pessimists. Here are the reasons Houston’s hot start won’t last.

1. The team is full of holes

A hot start that is indicative of things to come usually stands up to scrutiny. We can look at the Tigers and Cardinals and say with confidence that these are good teams playing their best. Even the hot-starting Royals stand up to scrutiny thanks to their incredible defense and bullpen.

The Astros? Not so much. It’s just hard to look at this roster and see 90 wins. Hot start or no, this is still a team that trots out Scott Feldman and Roberto Hernandez every fifth day, starts the immortal Luis Valbuena at third base, and can’t boast a hitter better than strikeout-prone slugger George Springer.

2. Many of these players can’t keep up what they’re doing

Some of these hot starts by Astros players can be pretty easily picked apart. Jake Marisnick isn’t going to have an OBP of .433 or slug .648 over a full season; relievers like Tony Sipp can be good, but not this good; and Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh will both eventually give up a home run here and there. A lot has gone right so far for Houston, and much of it won’t last.

3. Outside of Keuchel, the rotation is weak

Scott Feldman, Roberto Hernandez, and Brad Peacock do not a playoff rotation make. Keuchel is a real ace, and McHugh is good, but three out of five days this time will be mediocre at best on the mound. The signs are there now: Feldman has already given up 5 home runs in 24 innings, while Hernandez (a.k.a. the artist formerly known as Fausto Carmona) has walked 7 in 23 innings, and shows no signs of ceasing his trademark wildness. Two good starters is two more than they had in the bad old days of 2012 and ’13, but they’ll need more than that to become real contenders.

4. They’re a young, streaky team

Here’s the thing about young teams: they go through hot and cold streaks more frequently than other teams. They can have weeks where it all comes together, but other weeks where it all falls apart. And whether it’s in May, July, or September, we’re probably going to see that side of the Astros at some point.

Next: The Verdict