There’s plenty of star power in the MLB playoffs, but unexpected performances from surprise players could make the difference come October.
As usual, some of the brightest stars in the game will be featured in the MLB postseason this October.
One look at the potential matchups in the early stages of the National League playoffs alone should provide enough excitement for those who love to watch the best in the business shine on the biggest stage. The N.L. Wild Card game could feature an outstanding pitching duel between Jake Arrieta and Gerrit Cole, while Game 1 of the NLDS could very well be a matchup between Clayton Kershaw and Jacob deGrom.
On the American League side, MVP candidate Josh Donaldson leads a powerful Toronto Blue Jays lineup that looks like it will difficult to stop. Even so, the Blue Jays won’t have an easy path the World Series, as Dallas Keuchel, Prince Fielder and Lorenzo Cain could all stand in their way at some point.
However, sometimes star power alone isn’t enough to win a title. Many team’s playoff hopes will be dependent on unexpected performances from surprise players or x-factors.
The Kansas City Royals showed this last season by riding speed, defense and a strong bullpen to within one game of a championship. Even this year, the Royals have the A.L.’s best record with only a couple of players who could be considered national stars.
Every playoff contender features an x-factor that could make all the difference, whether it be a young call-up, player getting hot at the right time, or someone returning from injury.
Next: Los Angeles Dodgers: Corey Seager
Los Angeles Dodgers: Corey Seager
It was a question of when, not if, the Dodgers were going to call up one of the top prospects in the Majors to help improve their struggling middle infield. Seager finally made his MLB debut on September 3, and has looked very impressive since.
In 77 plate appearances so far entering play on Wednesday, Seager has posted an outstanding .359/.468/.578 line per FanGraphs.com. While that pace is obviously unsustainable, Seager is showing many of the same skills that made him an elite prospect throughout his minor league career.
There are questions about if Seager’s defense can stick at shortstop, but the Dodgers will sacrifice that for his offensive production. Given that Jimmy Rollins has accumulated -0.2 WAR according to FanGraphs, Seager represents a huge boost for a team that arguably already had the best roster in the N.L.
Rollins has been limited over the past couple of weeks by a hand injury, so the depth chart could get a little crowded if he is able to return fully healthy. Still, Seager offers much more upside, and the Dodgers will have little choice but to start him at shortstop if he continues to hit well.
Even having Seager as another reserve bat would be a nice upgrade for Los Angeles’ already strong bench. With Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke in a short series, the Dodgers may not need a whole lot of offense in the postseason.
Next: St. Louis Cardinals: Stephen Piscotty
St. Louis Cardinals: Stephen Piscotty
The Cardinals‘ ability to plug-and-play just about any prospect has been a big part of their success in recent seasons. Even with numerous injuries this year, including to Adam Wainwright and Matt Holliday , St. Louis has been able to roll to an impressive 95-56 record behind strong performances from some unknown players.
That doesn’t quite apply fully to Piscotty, as he was considered a strong prospect throughout the minors. Still, Piscotty has exceeded everyone’s expectations, posting a 132 wRC+ in 228 plate appearances in his young career according to FanGraphs.
If that pace continues, Piscotty would have his best numbers since Rookie ball, yet another testament to the Cardinals’ development system. Piscotty is running a .383 BABIP, which means his average might come down soon, but he’s showing enough power to keep being productive.
Holliday has been activated from the disabled list in a pinch hitting role for now, so the Cardinals will have to figure out their playing time situation in the outfield. Still, it’s going to be difficult to take Piscotty out of the lineup based on the way he’s hit so far.
Piscotty’s performance could be a huge key for the Cardinals going forward. With an outstanding starting rotation, most of St. Louis’ question marks in the postseason will be on the offensive side of thing.
Next: New York Mets: Bartolo Colon
New York Mets: Bartolo Colon
The Mets have looked unstoppable since the trade deadline behind a young pitching staff filled with upside and the heroics of Yoenis Cespedes. A continued strong run of form from Colon could make them even more dangerous in the playoffs.
Not long ago, Colon looked like an easy choice to be left out of New York’s playoff rotation. Colon’s 4.135ERA (3.86 FIP) overall this season per FanGraphs doesn’t offer much confidence, particularly when compared to the young trio of deGrom, Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard.
However, Colon had a recent stretch where he was pitching like it was 2002. The 42-year-old recently set some records with a 31-inning scoreless streak, and has allowed five total runs over his last six outings
There isn’t much secret about what Colon is going to throw, but he’s still finding ways to be successful. The key has been outstanding command, as Colon’s 3 percent walk rate thus far stands as the lowest of his career.
If Colon keeps up his current run, the Mets will have a hard time keeping him off the postseason roster. Colon certainly has made a case to make it over Jonathan Niese, and could even be slotted ahead of the struggling Syndergaard or the inexperienced Steven Matz.
New York’s rotation already looked like it was going to be tough to deal with in October, and Colon pitching so well only makes the Mets more dangerous.
Next: Pittsburgh Pirates: Tony Watson
Pittsburgh Pirates: Tony Watson
The well-rounded Pirates own baseball’s second-best record and are not all that far behind the seemingly untouchable Cardinals for the NL Central lead. With stars like Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole plus a solid supporting cast, it’s not hard to see why.
Still, every team in the NL postseason is going to counter with their own star power, particularly in their respective starting rotations. A role player like Watson could be the piece that makes the difference in the hotly-contested Senior Circuit playoffs.
If you asked most fans who Pittsburgh’s best reliever is, many would say outstanding closer Mark Melancon, who leads the league in saves. Still, Watson is having a strong year of his own, posting a 2.05 ERA (2.87 FIP) and 1.3 WAR per FanGraphs, most among Pirates relievers.
That follows an equally impressive 2014 campaign, in which Watson posted a 1.63 ERA and 2.69 FIP. Despite not being a household name outside of Pittsburgh and losing some velocity from last season, Watson has proven himself to be one of the best setup men in the NL.
Watson will be huge in bridging the gap from Pittsburgh’s strong rotation to Melancon. The rest of the bullpen isn’t as reliable, so the Pirates can’t afford any slip-ups from Watson.
Next: Chicago Cubs: Jorge Soler
Chicago Cubs: Jorge Soler
Even with a 89-62 record, the Cubs’ youthful lineup has had its fair share of ups and downs this season. That inconsistency has been fueled in part by Soler, who came into the season with lofty expectations but has largely disappointed.
Soler has posted a 92 wRC+ in 384 plate appearances so far per FanGraphs with a strikeout rate approaching 30 percent. With a crowded depth chart situation, those numbers would indicate Soler shouldn’t get a whole lot of playing time in the postseason.
Still, the Cubs know Soler can be much better than what he’s shown in 2015. Soler posted a 147 wRC+ in 24 games last season, and his tremendous raw power makes him one of the best young players in a loaded Cubs’ system.
There’s been flashes this season as well, as Soler was hitting well before suffering an oblique injury in late August. Soler rejoined the club last week and has already hit two home runs since returning.
If Soler can get at least part of the way back to his 2014 form, that would be a huge boost for the Cubs’ lineup, particularly with a tough matchup in the N.L. Wild Card Game looming. At the very least, Soler will provide another intriguing bench bat for Joe Madden to consider.
Next: Texas Rangers: Shawn Tolleson and Sam Dyson
Texas Rangers: Shawn Tolleson and Sam Dyson
The Rangers’ may have not climbed to the top of the AL West on the strength of their bullpen, but the back-end is very strong and could be a big factor in the postseason.
Quietly, Tolleson has been one of the best closers in the game this season. The 27-year-old has 33 saves in 35 opportunities according to FanGraphs, all of which have come since he took over the role on May 20, the highest total in the A.L. over that span.
Tolleson is yet another example of an unexpected contributor that has led the Rangers to a playoff position in what was supposed to be a lost season after Yu Darvish was lost for the year. Texas claimed Tolleson off of waivers from the Dodgers in November of 2013 and he’s been solid ever since, including a 2.81 ERA (3.23 FIP) and 25.7 percent strikeout rate in 2015.
The Cole Hamels trade got all of Texas’ headlines at the deadline, but acquiring reliever Sam Dyson has proven to be a very underrated move. Dyson has posted 1 .48 ERA in 24.1 innings with Texas per FanGraphs, helped out by a heavy sinker that has generated ground balls at a ridiculous 77.3 percent rate so far.
Both pitchers will be key in closing games behind Hamels, Yovani Gallardo and Derek Holland. Texas may not have the strongest pitching of any postseason contender, but Holland and Dyson can help them be effective enough to win the pennant.
Next: Kansas City Royals: Kris Medlen
Kansas City Royals: Kris Medlen
Even with the best record in the A.L., the Royals are not without their share of concerns. Kansas City is playing its worst baseball at the wrong time, posting its first losing month in September so far and quickly losing fround to the Blue Jays for home field advantage.
The concern for the Royals this season has always been starting pitching, even with the deadline acquisition of Johnny Cueto. Cueto was supposed to be the ace that the Royals needed and leave them with only minor weaknesses, but has struggled mightily over his last five starts and could be nursing an injury.
Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura have both regressed considerably from last season, although the latter has been better recentely. While Edison Volquez has been very good and should get the ball in Game 1 of the ALDS, he isn’t exactly a model of consistency.
Kris Medlen, Kansas City’s No. 5 starter, becomes huge down the stretch due to the struggles of the rest of the rotation. The 29-year-old missed all of 2014 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but has been solid over 43.2 innings this season with a 3.51 ERA (4.15 FIP) per FanGraphs.
It’s clear at this point that Medlen deserves a spot in Kansas City’s playoff rotation. Medlen was very good before the surgery as a member of the Atlanta Braves, so he has the potential to improve more and be a solid No. 3 for the Royals if Cueto doesn’t improve quickly.
The Royals only need to get to the game to their strong bullpen to have a good chance to win, so even a post-surgery Medlen could be effective enough. Kansas City’s rotation will need to show improvement to deal with Toronto’s powerful lineup if both teams were to advance to the ALCS.
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Toronto Blue Jays: Marcus Stroman
Toronto’s deadline acquisitions of Troy Tulowitzki, David Price, and some other role pieces has turned the club into a seemingly unstoppable machine over the past couple of months. Tulowitzki improved an already potent lineup, while Price provided the much-needed front-line pitcher that helped the rest of the rotation fall into place.
However, another late addition to the rotation could be what puts the Blue Jays over the top. The electrifying Marcus Stroman was able to return faster than expected from a torn ACL suffered in spring training and appears on track to be a playoff starter for the Blue Jays come October.
Stroman looked like a future ace in his debut last season. At just 23 years old, Stroman posted a 3.65 ERA (2.84 FIP) over 130.2 innings, with an impressive walk rate of 5.2 percent per FanGraphs.
Those numbers could be a big boost for Toronto’s playoff rotation, which is still a bit of a question mark at the moment. It’s unclear how much the Blue Jays will trust Mark Buehrle or Marco Estrada in the postseason, and Drew Hutchison has been unable to live up to his potential this year.
If Stroman can slide in as the No. 3 after Price and R.A. Dickey, Toronto will be in great shape. As good as the Blue Jays’ lineup is, starting pitching will make the difference in October.
Stroman pitched a very important game in his season debut, allowing three runs in five innings against the New York Yankees on Sep. 12, and has been very strong since. With more time in the rotation to get up to speed, Stroman should get even better.
Next: New York Yankees: Greg Bird
New York Yankees: Greg Bird
The loss of Mark Teixiera for the year with a fractured leg looks like it could be a huge blow to New York’s chances of advancing far in the postseason. Teixiera was having a great year with a .255/.357/.548 line and 143 wRC+, the highest mark on the team among regulars per FanGraphs.
Replacing Teixiera’s production will be up to a rookie. Bird, a highly rated prospect who was called up in mid-August, will take over Teixiera’s spot at first base for the rest of the season.
Fortunately for the Yankees, Bird has been solid enough so far. The 22-year-old has posted a 142 wRC+ with 10 home runs in 137 plate appearances so far, according to FanGraphs.
That obviously doesn’t replace Teixeira, but Bird has been far from a black hole in the Yankees’ lineup. Bird showed some great power in the minors and could help New York a lot if he continues to do so down the stretch and in the playoffs.
Despite numerous injuries, the Yankees still have a productive lineup, some upside in the rotation and a shut down bullpen. New York could face Dallas Keuchel and the Houston Astros in the AL Wild Card Game, so it needs all the offensive help it can get for a chance to go to the ALDS.
Next: Houston Astros: Lance McCullers
Houston Astros: Lance McCullers
The 21-year-old fireballing McCullers has shown some serious upside in his rookie season after skipping Triple-A altogether. If the Astros can advance past a potential Wild Card Game with their ace on the mound, figuring out the rotation after that becomes a big key.
McCullers will be an important part of that puzzle as a No. 2 or 3, along with Scott Kazmir. In 18 starts, McCullers has a 3.22 ERA (3.18 FIP) per FanGraphs, and has only allowed more than three runs in two separate outings.
With a lively fastball that sits in the mid-90s, McCullers has struck out just over a batter per inning in his rookie campaign. Houston set McCullers down to Double-A for a couple of weeks in August to work on a few things, but he’s returned to majors and is pitching well enough to factor into their potential playoff rotation if the club can hold off the Minnesota Twins.
McCullers has the upside to be dominant in any given outing, so his performance will be a major x-factor for the Astros. As such a young age, its also easy to see how he could struggle in a playoff outing, particularly on the road, where the entire team has struggled in 2015.
Houston knows it has a great chance in any game Keuchel takes the mound. The rotation after that will determine how far the Astros go this postseason. In any case, McCullers is a critical piece for the stretch run and beyond.
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